The SA Vehicle Industry Thread

How the auto industry could be affected by Donald Trump’s US presidency

Markets for the most part reacted positively to Donald Trump’s 2024 US election victory, with Wall Street’s main indexes jumping to record highs, but some auto industry stocks hit multi-year lows over fears of punitive tariffs and a turn-back on electric vehicle policies.

While Tesla shares surged by 15% on news that Elon Musk would be appointed as head of a government efficiency commission, shares in BMW, Volkswagen, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz fell by between 5.2% and 7.7%, Reuters reported. The US is Germany’s biggest export market for cars, accounting for 12.9% of its vehicle exports.

As BMW stock hit four-year lows, CEO Oliver Zipse sought to assure investors that punitive tariffs under Trump, which have been threatened for Europe, would not affect the company significantly as its Spartanburg plant in North Carolina currently produces over 400,000 vehicles per year in that country.

China’s largest EV maker BYD saw its shares drop by 3.6%, while US-listed Nio and Li Auto lost 5.3% and 3.3% respectively, NBC Los Angeles reported.

Trump has previously mooted a 10% tariff on imports from all foreign nations and a much higher 60% tariff for Chinese imports. While most global automakers have factories in the US, they still rely on imports to flesh out their model ranges to meet consumer demand.

South African vehicle manufacturing operations could also be affected by the Trump presidency.

For instance, some exporters rely on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for duty-free access into the US market. Should this trade policy be done away with under a more protectionist US government, it would certainly have a detrimental effect on local manufacturers that export to the US.

Uncertainty over electric cars

Jeff Schuster, Vice President Research Automotive at GlobalData, said the global auto sector could see a significant mid-term impact from the new Trump Presidency in the areas of trade, electric vehicle (EV) transition and regulations.

“We anticipate that the current state of protectionism will be intensified under Trump, with Chinese imported vehicles and technology being targeted.”

Schuster said the transition to EVs would be hindered under Trump’s administration.

“His focus on reducing oil/fuel prices and rolling back emissions standards could lead to a 15-20% decrease in the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US by 2030 compared to our base forecast.

 
Defective used cars becoming a major headache in South Africa - here’s how to avoid buying one

More and more South Africans are discovering major defects with their used cars shortly after purchase, the National Consumer Commission (NCC) warns.

In many cases people are left stuck with vehicles that they can no longer use, and yet which they still owe money on.

On average the commission is receiving around 250 to 300 complaints per month from used car buyers, spokesperson Phetho Ntaba told Newzroom Afrika in a recent interview.

“Consumers say when they bought these vehicles, they were not given information about the car or history of the car; they experience defects within a short period of time - be it a month, a day or three days … the shortest period of time,” Ntaba said.

Worse still, many dealerships bluntly refuse to repair the vehicle or refund the client, even after being approached by the NCC, while shoddy and unsatisfactory repairs are also commonplace in cases where dealers do agree to remedy the situation.

 
Do car subscriptions make sense? Avis and Flexcar aim to entice clients with improved offering

Car subscriptions, although not without drawbacks, have long been billed as the ideal solution for those who want personal mobility but without the hassles usually associated with buying a car.

Toyota has been quite prominent in this space with its Kinto One offering, as have service providers such as Drivee and FlexClub.

And now Zeda Limited, which holds the licence to the Avis brand in South Africa, has teamed up with FlexClub to roll out a new-and-improved car subscription offering aimed at making it easier for customers to tailor a package that suits their needs.

Based on the Avis pay-as-you-go subscription service that was first piloted in 2021 and launched in 2023, the improved service now allows customers to configure and manage their prepaid car subscriptions online.

“The latest pay-as-you-go innovation builds on learnings from Avis’ entry into the subscription economy in 2021. It addresses the growing gap left by traditional vehicle finance in South Africa, where more than 70% of the demand for new cars is unmet,” Zeda said.

FlexClub CEO Tinashe Ruzane said the company has seen a clear shift in consumer behaviour since 2020, with more people opting for greater control and flexibility over rigid long-term financial commitments.

The website offers a number of options to consumers, allowing them to choose their preferred vehicle and build a plan that suits their needs.

Current offers listed on the website include a Toyota Vitz 1.0 XR manual for R6,780 per month; a Hyundai Grand i10 1.0 Premium, Toyota Starlet 1.5 Xi or VW Polo Vivo 1.4 Trendline for R7,860pm, while a Kia Sonet 1.5 LX can be had for R9,030pm, to name just a few examples.

Furthermore, a Volkswagen T-Cross can be subscribed to from R12,600pm, while larger SUVs such as the Toyota Corolla Cross 1.8 XS and Volkswagen Tiguan 1.4 TSI can be had for R18,900 per month.

Luxury cars such as the Audi A4 (R21,660pm) and Toyota Fortuner 2.4 GD-6 (R22,530) are also available, as are luxury vans like the Mercedes Vito (R23,310).


 
Here’s how many electric cars market leader Volvo has sold in South Africa in 2024

Although electric vehicles (EVs) have yet to make a meaningful impact on South African sales charts, Volvo is taking an early lead in this space.

The Swedish carmaker announced this week that it sold 467 electric vehicles in Mzansi between January and September 2024, which equates to an average of 51 units per month.

Among these the EX30 emerged as the country’s top-selling EV in the first three quarters of the year with 348 sales, or 39 per month on average. It was followed by the XC40 at 96 (10 per month) and the C40 at 23 (or 2.5).

Sadly it’s impossible to tell which its nearest rivals are on the sales charts as there is a complete lack of transparency among the other car companies that sell EVs. BMW, Mercedes and BYD, for instance, do not release detailed monthly sales figures to Naamsa.

Among those that do report, GMW’s Ora sold an average of just two units per month in the past three months, while Jaguar’s I-Pace, which is being run out at present, found just one home per month.

South Africa’s cheapest EV at present is the Dayun S5, which starts at R399,900, albeit as a city-sized car with a top speed of just 100km/h. Next up is the BYD Dolphin at R539,900 and the GWM Ora at R686,950. Volvo’s EX30 starts at R791,900 and its range also includes the high-performance Twin Motor Performance model, priced at R1,055,900, which accelerates from 0-100km/h in 3.6 seconds.

The German luxury options start at R1,179,400 for the Mercedes EQA250 and R1,205,000 for the BMW iX1.

 
These are the vehicles targeted by hijackers in South Africa, and bright colours no longer a deterrent

Vehicle hijacking remains a huge concern for South African motorists, with around 60 vehicles hijacked per day according to South African Police Service (SAPS) statistics, and significant increases in provinces such as the Eastern Cape and Western Cape have been recorded.

Although it is commonly assumed that vehicles with a bit more ‘stand out’ appeal, such as those in brighter colours, would be less of a target, new information suggests this may no longer be the case.

White and silver vehicles were traditionally the biggest hijack targets, but there is a growing demand among criminals for vehicles in non-traditional colours such as yellow and orange, according to MotorHappy, a division of retail giant Motus. While hijackers once avoided these vehicles due to their visibility, there has reportedly been a shift in criminal behaviour in recent times.

Vehicle theft is of course linked to the supply and demand dynamics of the black market, and there are at least 13 vehicles that stand out as being targets in South Africa, MotorHappy reports.

Vehicles targeted by hijackers in South Africa

Ford Ranger
Hyundai i20
Nissan Almera
Nissan NP200
Toyota Corolla
Toyota Corolla Cross
Toyota Etios
Toyota Fortuner
Toyota Hilux
Toyota Prado
Toyota Land Cruiser
Toyota Rav4
Volkswagen Polo

Among these are discontinued models such as the Toyota Etios as well as the Nissan Almera sedan and NP200 bakkie. Demand for these vehicles remains strong in South Africa and other parts of the continent.

 
Cars from China and India now booming on the used market as affordability reigns supreme

Vehicles built in China and India have become a dominant force in South Africa’s new vehicle market in recent years.

Naturally, they’re now becoming popular in the used vehicle space as South Africans continue to seek affordable vehicles amid constrained household budgets.

In the space of five years, Chinese cars have shaken off their once questionable reputation, with brands such as Chery, GWM and the latter’s Haval brand proving to South African consumers that their products can compete with established Japanese, Korean and European brands - and for considerably less outlay.

Motorists are responding by purchasing offerings from these marques, and several more that have penetrated the SA automotive scene since 2020.

New data from AutoTrader provides interesting insights into this immense growth, highlighting the increased demand for these cars from the East in the used car market.

“Less than a decade ago, Chinese vehicles barely showed up on the used car radar,” said George Mienie, CEO of AutoTrader. “However, these marques have made a triumphant return, reflected in a dramatic increase in listings and sold vehicles.

“For example, Chery went from selling 265 used cars in 2020 to 1,370 in the first half of 2024. South African consumers are enticed by the unbeatable combination of high equipment levels and excellent value for money.”

This trend has become prevalent in recent years. Chery’s used car sales increased by 934% between 2021 and 2024. And it’s not just Chery - GWM and its Haval brand have recently enjoyed notable growth, too. In 2021, 1,539 and 2,881 used examples were sold, respectively. The figures for the first half of 2024 are nearly there, with up-weighted 2024 figures pointing to 5,198 Havals sold on the used car market come year-end.

While the Chinese brands are creating a storm in the used car market, they’re not the only Eastern upstarts to have captured the attention of South African motorists.

 
These are the vehicles targeted by hijackers in South Africa, and bright colours no longer a deterrent

Vehicle hijacking remains a huge concern for South African motorists, with around 60 vehicles hijacked per day according to South African Police Service (SAPS) statistics, and significant increases in provinces such as the Eastern Cape and Western Cape have been recorded.

Although it is commonly assumed that vehicles with a bit more ‘stand out’ appeal, such as those in brighter colours, would be less of a target, new information suggests this may no longer be the case.

White and silver vehicles were traditionally the biggest hijack targets, but there is a growing demand among criminals for vehicles in non-traditional colours such as yellow and orange, according to MotorHappy, a division of retail giant Motus. While hijackers once avoided these vehicles due to their visibility, there has reportedly been a shift in criminal behaviour in recent times.

Vehicle theft is of course linked to the supply and demand dynamics of the black market, and there are at least 13 vehicles that stand out as being targets in South Africa, MotorHappy reports.

Vehicles targeted by hijackers in South Africa

Ford Ranger
Hyundai i20
Nissan Almera
Nissan NP200
Toyota Corolla
Toyota Corolla Cross
Toyota Etios
Toyota Fortuner
Toyota Hilux
Toyota Prado
Toyota Land Cruiser
Toyota Rav4
Volkswagen Polo

Among these are discontinued models such as the Toyota Etios as well as the Nissan Almera sedan and NP200 bakkie. Demand for these vehicles remains strong in South Africa and other parts of the continent.

Good thing jacking hasn't caught on down here in Slummies or our household would be 2 for 2.
 
Was googling the towing capacity of the kombi and landed on their site
HTF is a trendline kombi R900k?!
1732080871551.png
 
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