The SA Vehicle Industry Thread

Nissan and Honda to hold merger talks: here’s what we know so far

Japanese auto giant Honda and its struggling rival Nissan agreed on Monday to launch talks on a merger seen as a bid to catch up with Chinese rivals and Tesla on electric vehicles.

Their collaboration would create the world's third largest automaker, expanding development of EVs and self-driving tech.

But Honda's CEO insisted that it was not a bailout for Nissan, who last month announced thousands of job cuts and reported a 93 percent plunge in first-half net profit.

"This is not a rescue," Toshihiro Mibe told reporters, stressing that one condition for the merger would be for Nissan to complete its so-called "turnaround" plan.

Lacklustre consumer spending and stiff competition in several markets is making life hard for many automakers.

Business has been especially tough for foreign brands in China, where electric vehicle manufacturers such as BYD are leading the way as demand grows for less polluting vehicles.

The two firms along with Mitsubishi Motors said they had signed a memorandum of understanding to start discussions on integrating their business under a new holding company.

Citing "dramatic changes in the environment surrounding both companies and the automotive industry", a joint statement said the companies planned to list the holding company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in August 2026.

It comes after reports said Taiwanese electronics behemoth Foxconn had unsuccessfully approached Nissan to acquire a majority share. It then asked Renault to sell its 35 percent stake in Nissan - a pursuit now said to have been put on hold.

 
New vehicle sales declined in 2024, but market poised for recovery in 2025

The South African new vehicle market has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, with 2024 having seen a 3.0% year-on-year decline.

According to figures released by Naamsa - The Automotive Business Council, new vehicle sales totalled 515,712 units in 2024, down from 531,775 in 2023.

It was widely expected that weak demand would characterise the first half of the year amid election uncertainty, followed by an upswing in the second half of 2024. However the market was slow to gain momentum amid a tough economic climate for consumers, and the true recovery only started in the final quarter of the year, rounded off by 2.5% year-on-year growth in December.

Passenger vehicle sales totalled 351,302 units in 2024, an increase of 1.1% versus 2023, with strong support from the rental car industry having provided a boost in the latter part of the year.

Bakkies and other light commercial vehicles, however, saw a year-on-year decline of 12% last year, with 133,254 sales recorded, down from 151,490 in 2023. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle and bus sectors saw respective declines of 6.5% and 4.9%.

 
Chery climbs! SA’s new-vehicle sales for December 2024

December 2024 represented the SA new-vehicle market’s 3rd consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Here’s your overview, including Mzansi’s best-selling automakers…

South Africa’s new-vehicle market recorded its 3rd consecutive year-on-year increase in monthly sales, with local registrations in December 2024 growing 2.5% to 41 273 units. As expected, however, the year’s final month – which is traditionally a relatively low-volume sales period – was down markedly (some 15%, in fact) compared with November’s high of 48 585 units.

Ultimately, despite the uptick experienced in the final quarter, Mzansi’s new-vehicle sales for 2024 overall fell 3.0% year on year to 515 712 units. In addition, for the first time since 2020, the country’s new-vehicle exports declined, falling 22.8% year on year to 308 830 units (after dropping 4.3% year on year to 25 931 units in December).

Naamsa says 88.4% of the total reported industry figure of 41 273 units in December 2024 represented dealer sales, while 8.1% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 2.1% to government and 1.4% to industry corporate fleets.

Yet again, the new passenger-vehicle market proved the driver of the industry’s year-on-year growth in December, gaining 8.2% to 29 775 units (10.9% of which came courtesy of the rental channel). The new light-commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, however, slipped 10.3% year on year to 9 136 units.

New-vehicle sales summary for December 2024

- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 41 273 units increased by 2.5% (1 011 units) compared to December 2023.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 29 775 units increased by 8.2% (2 246 units) compared to December 2023.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 9 136 units decreased by 10.3% (1 052 units) compared to December 2023.
- Export sales of 25 931 units decreased by 4.3% (1 158 units) compared to December 2023.

10 best-selling automakers in SA in December 2024

1. Toyota – 11 422 units

2. Volkswagen Group – 4 832 units

3. Suzuki – 4 514 units

4. Hyundai – 2 826 units

5. Ford – 2 607 units

6. Chery – 1 867 units

7. GWM – 1 686 units

8. Kia – 1 496 units

9. Isuzu – 1 364 units

10. Renault – 1 105 units

 
South African vehicle exports saw a significant decline in 2024

Following three consecutive years of growth, culminating in an all-time record in 2023, South African new vehicle exports declined by a significant 22.8% in 2024.

Total exports fell from 399,594 the previous year to 308,380 units in 2024, Naamsa reported, citing numerous economic factors.

Passenger car exports, at 192,542 units, fell by 25.4% while bakkie exports, at 115,192, were down 18% year-on-year.

Naamsa attributes the fall in exports to a slowdown in demand in the European Union, which is one of South Africa’s key export destinations. This region suffered from low economic growth in the past year, however stricter emission rules and competition from cheaper electric vehicle imports from China also affected the demand patterns in its automotive market.

BMW’s changeover from the old to the new X3 towards the end of 2024 also had an impact on the year’s export numbers.

Detailed export figures for December weren’t available at the time of writing, but for what it’s worth, the Ford Ranger was South Africa’s top vehicle export, at 10,574 units, followed by the Mercedes C-Class (8,400), BMW X3 (4,700), Toyota Hilux (3,986) and Volkswagen Polo (1,780). By surpassing the 10,000 mark, the Ford Ranger also achieved a new export record that month.


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These were South Africa’s best-selling vehicles for the whole of 2024

2024 was yet another year in which South Africa’s automotive market failed to reach its true potential.

According to figures released by Naamsa, 515,712 new vehicles were sold last year, which is 3% less than the 531,775 units registered in 2023.

While passenger vehicle sales (351,302) increased by 1.1% year-on-year, light commercial vehicles saw a 12% decline.

Nonetheless, bakkies still accounted for three of the five top-selling vehicles overall in 2024, according to monthly Naamsa numbers that were tallied by IOL.


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SA’s favourites in 2024: 10 best-selling cars & crossovers

A trio of South Africa’s 10 best-selling cars and crossovers for 2024 achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. Here are Mzansi’s favourites in the passenger-vehicle space…

In 2024, South Africa’s new-vehicle market fell 3.0% year on year to 515 712 units. That said, the new passenger-vehicle segment experienced marginal year-on-year growth of 1.1% to finish on 351 302 units. So, which cars and crossovers were ultimately Mzansi’s favourites in 2024? We’ve done the maths to identify the 10 best-selling models.

Rather fascinatingly, every vehicle that placed on the list of SA’s 10 best-selling cars and crossovers in 2023 again achieved that feat in 2024 – though there were some positional changes. That means the list again comprises 4 models produced right here in South Africa, along with another 4 imported from India and the remaining 2 shipped over from China.

As many as 3 nameplates (all imported) in the top 10 enjoyed double-digit year-on-year growth, while a further 3 (interestingly, all inside the top 4) suffered a fall in sales compared with the preceding reporting period. Let’s take a closer look at the figures and which of SA’s favourites placed where…

South Africa’s 10 best-selling passenger vehicles in 2024

1. Volkswagen Polo Vivo – 25 913 units (+8.4%)

2. Toyota Corolla Cross – 21 861 units (-3.2%)

3. Suzuki Swift – 15 768 units (-1.3%)

4. Toyota Starlet – 14 129 units (-10.1%)

5. Hyundai Grand i10 (excluding LCV) – 13 583 units (+38.2%)

6. Chery Tiggo 4 Pro – 12 646 units (+25.8%)

7. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 12 253 units (+4.3%)

8. Toyota Fortuner – 10 666 units (+2.7%)

9. Nissan Magnite – 10 059 units (+17.2%)

10. Haval Jolion – 9 213 units (+7.1%)

 
2024 premium vehicle brand sales: BMW rules in SA, Tesla beats Audi abroad

The premium vehicle business is not a pretty place to hang out right now, with myriad challenges weighing down on sales both in South Africa and abroad.

With a cost of living crisis impacting the luxury goods market across the globe and an increasing array of Chinese cars offering a gluttonous array of luxury features belying their bargain price tags, it’s not hard to understand why the traditional luxury car brands all saw their global sales numbers drop in 2025.

When the numbers for 2024 were crunched, BMW emerged as the top player, with 2,450,804 global sales recorded by the Group as a whole, including Mini, Rolls-Royce and Motorrad, and 2,200,177 sales for the BMW brand alone. Group sales were down by 4.0% versus 2023, while BMW brand sales dropped by 2.3%.

Mercedes sold 2,389,000 cars and vans in 2024, also 4% down on the previous year, while the car brand recorded 1,983,400 sales (down 3%) to put it significantly behind its Munich rival.

But a new superpower is emerging, with Tesla having ousted Audi for third place in the global ranking. Elon Musk’s electric car brand managed to move 1.79 million cars in 2024, according to Bloomberg, with sales declining by just 1.1% year-on-year.

Audi, however, saw its global sales slide by 12% to 1.67 million units in 2024. The Ingolstadt-based carmaker attributed the sales decrease to challenging economic conditions, an intensely competitive market and limited availability of parts, but there is optimism for the years ahead.

“We have a clear vision of how we are redefining Vorsprung durch Technik. Our ongoing model initiative shows the direction Audi is taking. The year 2024 was part of a transitional phase as we move towards our new product portfolio,” said Audi CEO Gernot Döllner.

BMW also topped the premium brand charts in South Africa, averaging a shade over 1,000 units per month with a 2024 total of 12,057 sales.

 
Three big reasons why South Africa’s bakkie and light commercial vehicle market fell by 12% in 2024

After narrowly missing the milestone of returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, South Africa’s new vehicle market declined by 3% in 2024 and this was largely led by a decline in light commercial vehicle sales.

A quick recap: Naamsa reported recently that 515,712 new vehicles were sold in 2024. Passenger cars, at 351,302, were up by 1.1%, while light commercial vehicle sales, at 133,254, fell by 12%.

But did sales of traditional one-tonne bakkies really take such a big knock in 2024?

It’s a mixed picture. While the three biggest players, the Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger and Isuzu D-Max, were once again among the five top selling vehicles overall, Hilux sales (at 32,656 units) fell by 12.6%, but the Ranger (25,533) and D-Max (19,153) climbed by 3.6% and 1% respectively, and the Mahindra Pik-Up and Nissan Navara also saw modest gains.

However, if we delve deeper into the numbers, it becomes evident that there were two other big culprits in the 2024 LCV sales decline: minibus taxis and Nissan NP200.

 
SA’s top 10 automakers: 2024’s winners & losers by market share

We’ve crunched the numbers to calculate market share and see which of South Africa’s top 10 automakers grew and which ones shrunk in 2024. Here are your winners and losers…

South Africa’s new-vehicle market declined 3.0% year on year to 515 712 units in 2024. So, which of Mzansi’s mainstream automakers bucked the industry trend and grew their sales, year on year? And which ones actually shrunk (and perhaps even lost market share) compared with their 2023 performance?

Well, we’ve tallied up the sales figures – and calculated overall market share, too – to identify South Africa’s 10 best-selling automakers of 2024, allowing us to compare these numbers with 2023’s statistics.

So, here’s your comprehensive overview of the respective performances of the main players in the country’s new-vehicle market. For the record, the top 10 welcomed a new brand in 2024, which was 1 of 4 on the table that enjoyed some degree of year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, the remaining 6 automakers suffered sales declines compared with 2023.

Toyota still king as Suzuki closes on VW Group

While the podium was unchanged in 2024, sales from runaway leader Toyota (including its Lexus and Hino brands) interestingly slipped 9.8% year on year to 128 663 units. By our maths, that puts the Japanese automaker’s local market share at a still-heady 24.9% (down from 2023’s record of 26.8%). So, virtually 1 in every 4 new vehicles registered in Mzansi last year came from the Toyota stable.

Having now led South Africa’s new-vehicle market for 45 straight years, Toyota was again far ahead of the 2nd-placed Volkswagen Group, with the latter firm’s total – which includes Audi sales – falling 1.4% year on year to 66 486 units. Despite this marginal year-on-year decrease in volume, the VW Group marginally grew its market share in a declining industry, from 2023’s 12.7% to 12.9% in 2024.


However, the 3rd-placed Suzuki closed the gap on its German rival to just 6 912 units in 2024, with local sales of this increasingly popular Japanese brand surging 20.5% year on year (representing the 2nd-strongest instance of growth in the top 10) to 59 574 units. For the record, that translates to an impressive market share of 11.6%, up from 9.3% in the prior 12-month period. Will 2025 be the year Suzuki overtakes the VW Group?


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