The SA Vehicle Industry Thread

South African vehicle exports surged in January, but Trump risks linger

Following a disappointing year for South African vehicle exports, 2025 got off to a positive start with a 29.5% gain compared to January 2024.

25,348 locally-made vehicles were exported in January, according to Naamsa, representing a year-on-year increase of 5,803 units.

This is a positive development, given that the full year of 2024 saw exports decline by 22.8% to 308,380 units, off 2023’s record figure of 399,594.

South Africa’s top exports in January 2025 were the Volkswagen Polo (10,168), Toyota Hilux (4,312), BMW X3 (3,700), Mercedes C-Class (3,100), Ford Ranger (2,239), Nissan Navara (611), Isuzu D-Max (471) and Toyota Fortuner (287).

Last year Volkswagen became the sole exporter of Polo hatchbacks to Europe and the Asia Pacific region, with the Kariega-based company exporting a record 131,485 vehicles.

The Ford Ranger was South Africa’s top bakkie export in 2024, with a volume of 66,284 units, up 15.7% on the previous year. It also achieved a record monthly export figure of 10,574 in November last year.


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Inside Volkswagen’s Kariega Plant: The science behind quality control

Quality control to ensure that every Volkswagen that comes off the line at the Kariega plant in the Eastern Cape meets the most stringent parameters is a non-negotiable.

The plant that produces the Polo for export, Polo GTI exclusively for world export, the Polo Vivo and shortly the new entry level SUV for local and African consumption, has a lot going on in the background.

Using some of the most sophisticated high-tech equipment in the world to test steel, smells, water resistance, NVH levels, lighting, electronics, and basically anything to do with the vehicles, there are a lot of clever people analysing reams of data.

During the recent Volkswagen Indaba we had the opportunity to have a closer look at some of their work and while most of us are aware that a lot of testing is done, the minute attention to detail is almost staggering.

All about the smell

The most fascinating thing for me was the smell test.

Climbing into a new car there’s always that distinctive “new car” smell.

It’s not there by accident.

At VW, it’s been vetted by a dedicated smell team who have had their noses calibrated. Seriously.

There are a couple of things they have to adhere to like not wearing perfume or leather, a non-smoker or anything that can affect their sense of smell when testing.

The engineers then take a piece of the interior, say from the steering wheel, dashboard, or door card, put it into a glass container and heat it to an extreme temperature for two hours.

The lid is lifted slightly and then the four testers, well… smell it.

There are six ratings ranging from not perceptible, clearly perceptible but not offensive and unbearable.


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AGOA loss would deal big blow to South Africa’s vehicle and component manufacturing industries

The diplomatic spat between the United States and South Africa means South Africa stands a very real chance of losing its duty-free access to the US market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

This would not only have a highly detrimental effect on the local vehicle manufacturing industry, but also on the country’s tyre, equipment and parts sector, industry bodies warn.

Dylan Petzer, Vice-Chairperson of the South African Tyre, Equipment and Parts Association (TEPA), warns about a potential domino effect of reduced exports.

“Our concern is that if exports drop, so does demand for locally produced rubber, manufacturing equipment, and logistics services. This will naturally result in factory downsizing, job losses and wasted investments in meeting US safety and environmental standards,” Petzer said.

“Add to this a substantial loss of tax revenue to the fiscus, and we have a recipe for a potential societal disaster.”

 
Donald Trump policy uncertainty creating chaos in the auto industry, Ford CEO says

The Trump administration's tariff threats and animosity towards electric vehicles are producing a "lot of cost and a lot of chaos" for Ford, the automaker's chief executive said this week.

While Trump has spoken about the priority of strengthening manufacturing in the United States, the administration thus far has been the source of tremendous "policy uncertainty" with constantly evolving tariff plans and a lack of clarity whether tax credits favoring EVs will be rolled back, he said.

Appearing at a financial conference, Jim Farley described Trump's initial plan to enact 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada as a disaster for US companies that operate across the region, while providing an unfair advantage to European and Asian automakers that also import to the United States.

Trump last week suspended the tariffs for 30 days following concessions from Mexico and Canada. But they have not been removed as a possibility by the Trump administration, which yesterday announced plans to enact 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Farley said Ford buys most of those two metals from US firms, but that the company's suppliers have international sources.

 
Volvo dealers claim they’re left high and dry, customers uncertain amid major restructure

Volvo Cars South Africa is facing a backlash following the announcement of a downsizing restructure process that will see it closing dealerships outside of the major urban areas.

Last week the union representing the majority of Volvo’s dealer employees, the Motor Industry Staff Association (MISA), criticised the importer over a lack of transparency surrounding the restructure, of which its members were not informed ahead of a statement being issued to the media.

Further to that, numerous dealerships are accusing the importer of leaving them high and dry, while also creating uncertainty among customers outside of the major centres.

Two months after it began consulting with some of these dealerships, Volvo Cars SA remains unable to confirm exactly how many dealers will be closed as a result of the restructure. However, multiple sources are indicating that the total will be cut from 19 to just seven new vehicle sales facilities, covering only the country’s three major metropolitan areas: Joburg/Pretoria, Cape Town and Durban.

Our sources indicate that Volvo Cars provided a 90-day notice period to affected dealers, with some being informed in late December and others later in January.

 
South Africa doubled its NEV sales in 2024

How many fully electric vehicles, traditional hybrids and plug-in hybrids were sold in South Africa in 2024? Let’s take a closer look at last year’s official NEV sales figures…

Naamsa has finally released official sales figures for new-energy vehicles (NEVs) – that is, fully electric vehicles (EVs), traditional hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) – in South Africa for 2024. Here’s what happened in this steadily growing section of the market…

According to the industry representative body, collective NEV sales (note, Naamsa seemingly doesn’t include mild hybrids in this group) from the 21 brands active in this space last year increased 100.6% year on year to 15 611 units. That means NEVs comprised 3.0% of Mzansi’s total new-vehicle market for 2024 (515 853 units), up from 1.47% in 2023.

Last year’s 15 611-unit performance was, of course, a record for NEV sales in South Africa. As a reminder, this part of the local market enjoyed significant year-on-year gains of 421.7% (to 4 674 units) in 2022 and 65.7% (to 7 746 units) in 2023, though obviously off comparatively low bases.

According to Naamsa, sales of fully electric vehicles for Q4 2024 came in at 184 units, down from 209 units in Q4 2023 and likewise down from 324 units in Q3 2024. By our maths, that puts South Africa’s EV sales total for 2024 at 1 257 units, up 35.3% year on year and eclipsing the previous high of 929 units achieved in 2023. Take note, however, that this figure excludes local sales from BYD, which unfortunately doesn’t currently report sales numbers to Naamsa.

 
SA’s top-selling double-cab bakkies in January 2025

Was the Ford Ranger again SA’s top-selling double-cab bakkie in January 2025 or did the Toyota Hilux hit back in the opening month of the year? The latest sales figures by body style…

In 2024, the Ford Ranger took the title of South Africa’s top-selling double-cab bakkie, despite the Toyota Hilux remaining the most popular bakkie overall (that is, including all 3 body styles). So, what happened in January 2025?

First, a reminder: Naamsa’s monthly sales report unfortunately doesn’t include a breakdown of the 3 bakkie body styles (though be sure to check out the overall list of SA’s most popular bakkies for January 2025 anyway). Thankfully, however, the studious folks over at Lightstone Auto have again assisted us by providing these fascinating registration figures.

According to Lightstone Auto, the Ford Ranger picked up right where it left off, leading the double-cab sales race in January 2025 with 1 572 units sold. By our maths, that works out to a considerable 84.6% of the Silverton-built bakkie’s overall tally (1 858 units) for the year’s opening month.

That meant the Toyota Hilux again had to settle for 2nd place on the dual-cab standings, with 1 097 units – or 42.9% of the Prospecton-made stalwart’s 2 557-unit total for the month, including the other body styles – registered in January 2025.

The final place on the double-cab podium went to – yes, you guessed it – the Isuzu D-Max, which finished the year’s opening month with sales of 497 units for this body style. Our calculations suggest this translates to just 35.2% of the Struandale-manufactured model’s overall total of 1 413 units for January.

For the record, Lightstone Auto’s figures show that all other 1-tonne double-cab bakkie derivatives (over and above the Ranger, Hilux and D-Max) collectively managed 1 212 registrations last month.

 
SA’s top-selling double-cab bakkies in January 2025

Was the Ford Ranger again SA’s top-selling double-cab bakkie in January 2025 or did the Toyota Hilux hit back in the opening month of the year? The latest sales figures by body style…

In 2024, the Ford Ranger took the title of South Africa’s top-selling double-cab bakkie, despite the Toyota Hilux remaining the most popular bakkie overall (that is, including all 3 body styles). So, what happened in January 2025?

First, a reminder: Naamsa’s monthly sales report unfortunately doesn’t include a breakdown of the 3 bakkie body styles (though be sure to check out the overall list of SA’s most popular bakkies for January 2025 anyway). Thankfully, however, the studious folks over at Lightstone Auto have again assisted us by providing these fascinating registration figures.

According to Lightstone Auto, the Ford Ranger picked up right where it left off, leading the double-cab sales race in January 2025 with 1 572 units sold. By our maths, that works out to a considerable 84.6% of the Silverton-built bakkie’s overall tally (1 858 units) for the year’s opening month.

That meant the Toyota Hilux again had to settle for 2nd place on the dual-cab standings, with 1 097 units – or 42.9% of the Prospecton-made stalwart’s 2 557-unit total for the month, including the other body styles – registered in January 2025.

 
Mahindra considering expanding manufacturing presence in South Africa

Mahindra is set to conduct an in-depth feasibility study into the potential expansion of its manufacturing footprint in South Africa.

Deemed a significant step to potentially strengthen its presence in the country, the Indian manufacturer has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with SA’s Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) to assess the feasibility of Completely Knocked Down (CKD) production.

Mahindra currently performs Semi Knocked Down assembly of the Scorpio Pik-Up at its KwaZulu-Natal plant operated by AIH Logistics. The facility recently produced it 25,000th bakkie.

CKD production is a far more comprehensive assembly process that typically includes a full assembly line and paint shop, thus creating far more jobs.

“The MoU marks a significant step in evaluating the potential for expanded local manufacturing, with a detailed study set to examine key factors such as South Africa’s automotive industry incentives, export market potential, workforce development, and supply chain infrastructure,” Mahindra said.

 
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