The Syrian Conflict Thread

Xarog said:
Ya, that's more or less what I would expect the conversation to go like. Was there something in particular you wanted to draw my attention to?
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I just thought it was interesting is all.
 
Unhappy438 said:
I just thought it was interesting is all.
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Ya. My personal take is that Putin didn't want to lose Assad but that isn't the same thing as winning the war for him. An endless civil war probably doesn't bother Russia too much because the longer they're fighting in Syria, the longer it's impossible for any gas pipeline to reach Europe.

I bet he didn't like the prospect of losing the naval base either, and for now that appears to be an extremely remote possibility.

If nothing else, the Russians have managed to give a very good appearance of a measured response.


Dave123 said:
True. If he is looking at it objectively he should, they aren't really his enemies.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
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I'll give props to Assad if he pulls this move if only because it proves he's pragmatic about the territory he rules.
 
Xarog said:
I'll give props to Assad if he pulls this move if only because it proves he's pragmatic about the territory he rules.
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Realistically speaking he doesn't have much of a choice, we shall see how long it takes him to realise this.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Realistically speaking he doesn't have much of a choice, we shall see how long it takes him to realise this.
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But of course; the point is that a winning player knows how to play a losing hand well.
 
I mean, if I was Assad I'd be pretty peeved at Erdogan's antics by now. Supporting a Kurdish insurrection inside Turkish territory which ultimately topples him would feel like poetic justice to me.
 
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Xarog said:
I mean, if I was Assad I'd be pretty peeved at Erdogan's antics by now. Supporting a Kurdish insurrection inside Turkish territory which ultimately topples him would feel like poetic justice to me.
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Kurds are far too small a minority and Turkeys army is far too strong to be toppled by a Kurdish insurrection.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Kurds are far too small a minority and Turkeys army is far too strong to be toppled by a Kurdish insurrection.
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Yeah, but what makes you think the Turks will choose Erdogan over peace with the Kurds in general?
 
Unhappy438 said:
In general they hate the PKK more than Erdogan.
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Does that mean they'll blame the PKK if Erdogan inevitably picks a fight with the PKK by trying to invade Kurdish Syria?

I mean, if Assad gives up on that territory, the more energy Turkey spends on fighting the Kurds, the less energy they're spending on trying to get rid of Assad.
 
Dave123 said:
Hopefully...
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It will only be done if there is support from Washington which there isn't. So unless there is a shift in policy with new leadership later in the year, the status quo will remain.
 
Unhappy438 said:
It will only be done if there is support from Washington which there isn't. So unless there is a shift in policy with new leadership later in the year, the status quo will remain.
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Erdogan's political survival could be threatened to the point where he has to provoke civil war in order to maintain his grip on power.
 
Xarog said:
Schit happens, and entropy is present in all forms of order. :p

I don't say it will happen, or that I even expect it to happen. I'm just not going to rule it out.
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Well just a month ago you said you anticipated an invasion and now you say you don't expect it to happen. So you can come around to my line of thinking :)
 
Unhappy438 said:
Well just a month ago you said you anticipated an invasion and now you say you don't expect it to happen. So you can come around to my line of thinking :)
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A month ago, Erdogan was making loud noises about an invasion and there was clear evidence that international borders had been crossed in Iraq.

Nonetheless, gun to my head I don't think we've seen the worst yet. The situation as a whole is just too volatile.
 
Xarog said:
A month ago, Erdogan was making loud noises about an invasion and there was clear evidence that international borders had been crossed in Iraq.
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Sure but that was all sabre rattling and bluster, since that time Erdogan has desperately tried to get the US on side but has failed miserably.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/py...peats.aspx?pageID=238&nID=94925&NewsCatID=358

Besides the Kurds, Turkey would essentially be fighting Russia, Syria and the US if he invaded Kurdish area.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Sure but that was all sabre rattling and bluster, since that time Erdogan has desperately tried to get the US on side but has failed miserably.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/py...peats.aspx?pageID=238&nID=94925&NewsCatID=358

Besides the Kurds, Turkey would essentially be fighting Russia, Syria and the US if he invaded Kurdish area.
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Indeed. But desperation makes people do extreme things. Erdogan isn't going to care what the Americans think about the invasion if the alternative is him simply giving up and tendering his resignation. I mean, all things considered if he loses power he'd at the very least have to flee the country.

Would you expect, for example, that Zuma wouldn't hold onto power with every last fingernail?

Maybe you don't like my rationale, but looking at the way Erdogan plays politics, I don't think it's all that unreasonable.
 
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