The Syrian Conflict Thread

Unhappy438 said:
I saw that as well, they have said and done a lot of conflicting things with this withdrawal. I suppose we will only truly know the full extent of it over the next month or so.
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They probably don't need to have as many aircraft as in the past, the damage to the anti-Govt Rebels has been done and a smaller force is probably able to maintain the pressure. Tweets from journos seems to show the SAA and their allies are making advances in most areas of operations and the YPG in the northeast of Syria (who don't appear to have any current cause to confront the govt forces) are pushing IS and associated jihadis from the north and north east right back to Raqqa.
 
Dave123 said:
They probably don't need to have as many aircraft as in the past, the damage to the anti-Govt Rebels has been done and a smaller force is probably able to maintain the pressure. Tweets from journos seems to show the SAA and their allies are making advances in most areas of operations and the YPG in the northeast of Syria (who don't appear to have any current cause to confront the govt forces) are pushing IS and associated jihadis from the north and north east right back to Raqqa.
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Hmmm, personally i think this has more to do with peace talks than success on the battlefield. Assad's forces may be making advancements but i fail to recall any absolute major victories.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Hmmm, personally i think this has more to do with peace talks than success on the battlefield. Assad's forces may be making advancements but i fail to recall any absolute major victories.
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Have a read of this guys tweets, @IvanSidorenko1, he's mentioned quite a few SAA successes recently.
 
Dave123 said:
Have a read of this guys tweets, @IvanSidorenko1, he's mentioned quite a few SAA successes recently.
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I don't doubt the Syrian army has had successes but nothing to suggest they are going to win the war militarily. Which is why i believe the Russian military pulling out has to do with the peace process negotiations and not the Syrian army being capable of winning the war.
 
Unhappy438 said:
I don't doubt the Syrian army has had successes but nothing to suggest they are going to win the war militarily. Which is why i believe the Russian military pulling out has to do with the peace process negotiations and not the Syrian army being capable of winning the war.
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I think if the Syrian Govt offers the Kurds an autonomous state in north east Syria in exchange for a non aggression pact the SAA/Iranians/Hezbolla probably will beat the IS/Jihadi groups militarily.

The Russians will undoubtedly still have an aviation presence (even if it has them flying in SAA colours) to support the ground troops. They control the sky and half the battle is already over.
 
Unhappy438 said:
I don't doubt the Syrian army has had successes but nothing to suggest they are going to win the war militarily. Which is why i believe the Russian military pulling out has to do with the peace process negotiations and not the Syrian army being capable of winning the war.
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Well, we agree that the pullout is being done for PR purposes, but it looks like we disagree as to why.

The rebels would not have sued for peace if they felt they could ultimately chuck Assad out on his ear/stick his head on a pike. The Syrian government's position has been vastly improved since the Russians first got involved and at this point if the rebels try to roll back the defeats, well, the Russians will have ample excuse to come back in full force, won't they?
 
Dave123 said:
I think if the Syrian Govt offers the Kurds an autonomous state in north east Syria in exchange for a non aggression pact the SAA/Iranians/Hezbolla probably will beat the IS/Jihadi groups militarily.

The Russians will undoubtedly still have an aviation presence (even if it has them flying in SAA colours) to support the ground troops. They control the sky and half the battle is already over.
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Peace talks would have to and do involve more than just the Kurds.
 
Xarog said:
Well, we agree that the pullout is being done for PR purposes, but it looks like we disagree as to why.

The rebels would not have sued for peace if they felt they could ultimately chuck Assad out on his ear/stick his head on a pike. The Syrian government's position has been vastly improved since the Russians first got involved and at this point if the rebels try to roll back the defeats, well, the Russians will have ample excuse to come back in full force, won't they?
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Sure but there is a difference between that and a full military victory. The objectives in my mind was to bring everyone to the negotiation table and not entirely eradicate all opposition.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Peace talks would have to and do involve more than just the Kurds.
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I'm not referring to the peace talks, just an informal "we won't attack you if you leave us alone, if you keep your fight aimed at IS/jihadi groups we will be amenable to a self ruling Kurd state in north east Syria post conflict".
 
Dave123 said:
I'm not referring to the peace talks, just an informal "we won't attack you if you leave us alone, if you keep your fight aimed at IS/jihadi groups we will be amenable to a self ruling Kurd state in north east Syria post conflict".
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That's always been the case though, the Kurds aren't the problem here for Syria or Russia its the moderate rebels.
 
Unhappy438 said:
Sure but there is a difference between that and a full military victory. The objectives in my mind was to bring everyone to the negotiation table and not entirely eradicate all opposition.
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Well, you have your idea of how everyone should fight, and then everyone has their own ideas of how they should fight.

I'm simply commenting on what I believe to be the motivations/considerations of the participants; it doesn't mean I agree with any of them.
 
Unhappy438 said:
That's always been the case though, the Kurds aren't the problem here for Syria or Russia its the moderate rebels.
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Agreed, life would be much easier for the Kurds after IS are eliminated, but Turkey will be an issue to even a self governing Kurdish Syrian province, but if the Russians are willing to actively support the Kurds it'll make things much more secure for them.

I thing the Syrian govt coalition can handle the moderate rebels.
 
Everyone is fighting over this land. Nuke it and irradiate it for a thousand years. No more fighting...
 
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