The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

[saturnz]

There's lots of QE, but not a 70% increase in US money supply in 12 months.

there was atleast a 70% increase in the FED's balance sheet in the last 12 months

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Look up the rand against the IMF's special drawing rights basket. XDRZAR was 19.85 on Thursday, the strongest for the rand since Jan 2020. It isn't just dollar weakness.

it is mostly just dollar weakness, 40% of SDR is USD anyway:


of that basket the Yuan and Yen have always been printed like there is no tomorrow, those are export markets trying to keep things in check

the EUR and GBP and pretty much every hard currency on the planet, are printed in vast amounts to prevent it from exploding in value against the USD

so yes, as the USD goes, so goes everything linked to it ... it would be more interesting to compare ZAR performance against other emerging economy currencies that are at least as liquid

EDIT: take Brazil for example over the past month, pretty much sideways

 

[airborne]

It looks like I blinked and missed R13.60/$. We're into the R13.50s now and still have a few hours to go in New York.

That is amazing, when it went to something like near R18/$ last year I thought we'd probably never dip below R15 again.

I had something I wanted to sell internationally and now it's not looking so great

 

[cr@zydude]

it is mostly just dollar weakness, 40% of SDR is USD anyway:
View attachment 1082375

of that basket the Yuan and Yen have always been printed like there is no tomorrow, those are export markets trying to keep things in check

the EUR and GBP and pretty much every hard currency on the planet, are printed in vast amounts to prevent it from exploding in value against the USD

so yes, as the USD goes, so goes everything linked to it ... it would be more interesting to compare ZAR performance against other emerging economy currencies that are at least as liquid

EDIT: take Brazil for example over the past month, pretty much sideways
View attachment 1082381

Would you prefer examples showing the rand gaining against the AUD, NZD, MXN, PLN or SEK?

 

[PseuDohNom]

There is a concern in the US that the $300/week jobless benefit is keeping people from applying for low paying jobs. A 40 hour per week job at $8/hour isn't worth it compared to the jobless payment.

This is exactly why the idea of a welfare state cannot and will not work. Ever.

 

[Sideshow Bob]

There is a concern in the US that the $300/week jobless benefit is keeping people from applying for low paying jobs. A 40 hour per week job at $8/hour isn't worth it compared to the jobless payment.

I see. Is there any concern about paying less than $300 per week for a 8 hour job, 5 days a week? Or is there a concern that likes of bezos will be on the streets if they offer living wage?

 

[cr@zydude]

Jobs report was crap.. suspect the inflation fears are coming fast now.

There is a concern in the US that the $300/week jobless benefit is keeping people from applying for low paying jobs. A 40 hour per week job at $8/hour isn't worth it compared to the jobless payment.

This is exactly why the idea of a welfare state cannot and will not work. Ever.

I see. Is there any concern about paying less than $300 per week for a 8 hour job, 5 days a week? Or is there a concern that likes of bezos will be on the streets if they offer living wage?

Easy guys. My comment was to explain why jobs numbers were bad. I wasn't commenting on whether or not there should be minimum wages or what people should be paid.

 

[noxibox]

Wtf seriously 70%?
Edit. 20-35% which at that scale is still ginormous.

Well that would explain why I've been seeing analysts all over very worried about inflation and that it's not if but when and its going to be bad.

I'm assuming that inflation shockwave will be reverberating around the globe, how will it affect us?

The prediction of the impact will depend heavily on whichever branch of economic dogma the predictor follows.

This is exactly why the idea of a welfare state cannot and will not work. Ever.

Rather it shows how ridiculously low the hourly rate is. Excessively low pay is a problem and it is getting worse. Maybe ultimately the only fix will be for the peasants to drag their feudal lords to the town square and cut off their heads.

 

[Cage Rattler]

Interesting, they have also gone big on boosting their gold reserves too. "Russia will completely abandon the dollar from its Sovereign Wealth Fund within a month. After Moscow will boost its holdings of euro and yuan, with ratios of pounds and yen remaining largely the same (Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov)." - RT

And announcing it most probably means the conversion has already been done. Also, the Chinese aren't buying dollars at present.

Re dollar, Wyckoff followers note dollar been in trading range for 21 weeks. If it was accumulation then a long uptrend soon. So, now a key point from a timing point of view.

 

[Lupus]

Seems to be slowly going back up again. 13:58 will have to see if it drops again.

 

[Brenden_E]

Easy guys. My comment was to explain why jobs numbers were bad. I wasn't commenting on whether or not there should be minimum wages or what people should be paid.

There are some real psychos in here - put them on ignore and move on.

This week something like half of the states has opted out of the federal unemployment grant. Low-paid workers choose to sit home and watch Netflix, claiming unemployment, instead of working.

Their free ride has come to an end.

 

[Johnatan56]

it is mostly just dollar weakness, 40% of SDR is USD anyway:
View attachment 1082375

of that basket the Yuan and Yen have always been printed like there is no tomorrow, those are export markets trying to keep things in check

the EUR and GBP and pretty much every hard currency on the planet, are printed in vast amounts to prevent it from exploding in value against the USD

so yes, as the USD goes, so goes everything linked to it ... it would be more interesting to compare ZAR performance against other emerging economy currencies that are at least as liquid

EDIT: take Brazil for example over the past month, pretty much sideways
View attachment 1082381

Disagree, more a case of economies starting to open again so e.g. metals needed again. Really bad time for the Eskom union fiasco, but there's never a good time for that.

Brazil is also an export country, oil, mineral fuels, ores, and meat are their main exports:

Brazil: Trade Statistics

Brazil Trade Statistics

globaledge.msu.edu

 

[Lupus]

13.64 to dollar now, so much for it continuing to 13.20 sadly.

 

[Sideshow Bob]

It can't get there. We're supposed to be Zimbabwe 2.0 soon.

 

[Priapus]

13.64 to dollar now, so much for it continuing to 13.20 sadly.

anything under 15/$ is a win for now.

 

[purple face]

im getting £ 100 for some work ive done, unfortunately the (GBP) is going down in value compared to the rand.
does foreign money take long to clear in an ABSA bank account?
im only getting the money in 30 days. hopefully by then its worth more money

 

[krycor]

it is mostly just dollar weakness, 40% of SDR is USD anyway:
View attachment 1082375

of that basket the Yuan and Yen have always been printed like there is no tomorrow, those are export markets trying to keep things in check

the EUR and GBP and pretty much every hard currency on the planet, are printed in vast amounts to prevent it from exploding in value against the USD

so yes, as the USD goes, so goes everything linked to it ... it would be more interesting to compare ZAR performance against other emerging economy currencies that are at least as liquid

EDIT: take Brazil for example over the past month, pretty much sideways
View attachment 1082381

I’m pretty sure I mentioned this before but usual depressed folks who want to see Sa burn claimed BS.. go look but as you rightfully say look at our peers.

Generally this is primarily Turkey, Brazil and much lesser India (because they have heavy US influence for regional stability and a large population which changes things).

Anyway.. my point, as before, was that Turkey’s President (who needs to go) is swopping finance ministers to manipulate monetary system which makes Zuma’s attempt at the same look weak.. Brazil suffering with a way worse outbreak with a conservative gov.. all that means SA is the better of the two. Add on commodity inflation and here we are.

China is now trying to deflate commodities while SA thus far has handled it well given the fiscal restraints as well scandal after scandal with corruption and people trying to start crap on both sides of the political fence in SA. Sure, democracy will prove weaker in coming elections but since Zuma isn’t in power hopefully opposition can come right in time but I doubt it.

 

[johnjm]

im getting £ 100 for some work ive done, unfortunately the (GBP) is going down in value compared to the rand.
does foreign money take long to clear in an ABSA bank account?
im only getting the money in 30 days. hopefully by then its worth more money

They will send up a form to complete before they reflect it in order to declare the source.

And the rate they use will include their take.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Would you prefer examples showing the rand gaining against the AUD, NZD, MXN, PLN or SEK?

in what universe is Australia, New Zealand, Poland or Sweden emerging markets?!?

the Rand hasn't gained a damned thing against those first world, linked to USD, currencies, they are suffering from dollar weakness

 

[cr@zydude]

in what universe is Australia, New Zealand, Poland or Sweden emerging markets?!?

the Rand hasn't gained a damned thing against those first world, linked to USD, currencies, they are suffering from dollar weakness

I see that you ignored Mexico.

Poland is listed as an EM by MSCI & S&P.

How are 'first world' currencies link to the USD?

I do agree that money is currently flowing from DM to EM.