The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
YingYang said:
In 2001 it hit a peak of R13 84...
Click to expand...
Yeah that's correct. A bunch of us were on tour in China in December 2001 when the rand hit or was about to hit its worst. We were about 1.1 ZAR to the Chinese Yuen at the beginning of that December, IIRC.
 
TheGrove said:
I'm immigrating, house sale money comes in on Tuesday so need to convert about 120k. So now I just get to watch and pray that it does not get much worse before then ��
Click to expand...

A good friend of mine was seriously pissed when he immigrated to the US after selling his house, and missed converting by a few weeks, so he got ~R8.50 instead of ~R7.50. Not so upset now :), so don't worry, so far there is no sign of mean reversion.
 
TheGrove said:
I'm immigrating, house sale money comes in on Tuesday so need to convert about 120k. So now I just get to watch and pray that it does not get much worse before then ��
Click to expand...

cguy said:
A good friend of mine was seriously pissed when he immigrated to the US after selling his house, and missed converting by a few weeks, so he got ~R8.50 instead of ~R7.50. Not so upset now :), so don't worry, so far there is no sign of mean reversion.
Click to expand...

Emigrated/ing!!!
 
Take out a loan and pay it back with the money from the house.
 
Rand Exchange Rate Forecasts: Prospect Of Credit Rating Downgrade Pushes ZAR Lower

South African Rand Exchange Rate Trending at 11-Week Low vs GBP, USD and the EUR on Credit Rating Expectations

Expectations that top ratings agency Fitch would downgrade South Africa’s credit rating placed the Rand exchange rate under heavy pressure on Friday, despite some analysts asserting that the institution is more likely to affirm the nation’s BBB sovereign credit rating and negative outlook.

According to one industry expert; ‘While there is a significant chance that Fitch Ratings will downgrade SA’s rating on Friday, it is “marginally more likely than not” that the agency will affirm the rating. [...] Fitch is the only agency of the three major ratings agencies to have a negative outlook on its rating. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s have stable outlooks. While a negative outlook does not always mean ratings will be downgraded, it does mean that the probability of such happening is higher than when the outlook is stable.’

At the close of the week the Pound Sterling to South African Rand exchange rate was trending in a narrow range as a week of disappointing UK data and pared back Bank of England rate hike expectations took a toll on the British asset.
Meanwhile, the Euro to Rand exchange rate advanced over 0.7% as investors responded to the news that Greece didn’t default on its debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). German Factory Orders data also came in well above forecast levels and lent the common currency additional support. The US Dollar to South African Rand exchange rate was able to rally to 12.4074, an almost 11-week high, ahead of the release of the highly-influential US Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Next week there are several potentially influential South African ecostats to focus on, including the nation’s Business Confidence index for the second quarter. Economists have forecast that the sentiment measure slipped from 49 to 47 in the three months through June. This data is followed by SA Mining and Manufacturing Production data on Thursday. The latest estimates put mining production increasing by 2.6% on a month-on-month basis in April, down from the monthly gain of 7.1% recorded in March. This would result in the annual figure slipping from 18.8% to 7.68%. Meanwhile, manufacturing production is believed to have risen by 1.32% on the month (versus the monthly increase of 1.2% recorded in March) and to slide from 3.8% to 1.22% on the year. Negative ecostats may weigh on the Rand.
Click to expand...

http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/new...dit-rating-zar-lower-against-gbp-eur-usd.html
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
If we got our manufacturing sector into gear this should be a great thing for the economy.
Click to expand...

Erm..... higher exchange = higher interest rates = harder for consumers to service debt = less spend by consumers = further pressure on the economy. Only exporters will benefit and as we know, SA is a nett importer so the benefactors will be in the minority.

I might be wrong, but that is my uneducated understanding of it all.
 
FlashSA said:
Erm..... higher exchange = higher interest rates = harder for consumers to service debt = less spend by consumers = further pressure on the economy. Only exporters will benefit and as we know, SA is a nett importer so the benefactors will be in the minority.

I might be wrong, but that is my uneducated understanding of it all.
Click to expand...
It's not quite that simple. The gross majority of economists agree that a weak undervalued currency is good for a developing economy. China for years deliberately kept their currency undervalued.

A cynical perception would be that we don't take advantage of the situation like the Asian tiger economies did.
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
It's not quite that simple. The gross majority of economists agree that a weak undervalued currency is good for a developing economy. China for years deliberately kept their currency undervalued.

A cynical perception would be that we don't take advantage of the situation like the Asian tiger economies did.
Click to expand...

Because our economy isn't favourable to be able to take advantage of it.
 
Method said:
Because our economy isn't favourable to be able to take advantage of it.
Click to expand...
The hope should be this gives Incentive for us to produce locally rather than import. In future then to become a net exporter of certain goods. The only thing preventing this is apathy and lack of drive.

I know a Taiwanese guy who owns a factory here producing low end electronics. Two plate stoves and kettles and the likes. Simple stuff to mass produce and yet we still import the majority of it. All it requires is the will and drive but we're too addicted to importing and marking up healthy profits. That's a real inflation driver.

Just because our economy was traditionally one way that doesn't mean we can afford not to adapt.
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
It's not quite that simple. The gross majority of economists agree that a weak undervalued currency is good for a developing economy. China for years deliberately kept their currency undervalued.

A cynical perception would be that we don't take advantage of the situation like the Asian tiger economies did.
Click to expand...

China is a powerhouse when it comes to manufacturing. Our exports most likely aint no where close to being big enough to take advantage of this. One thing where it could be good is for our tourism industry. Will make it cheaper for 1st World tourists to come here ... but thanks to our new laws we could expect this industry to suffer also despite the low value rand.
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
It's not quite that simple. The gross majority of economists agree that a weak undervalued currency is good for a developing economy. China for years deliberately kept their currency undervalued.

A cynical perception would be that we don't take advantage of the situation like the Asian tiger economies did.
Click to expand...

With our turbulent labour environment we don't have a hope in hell of becoming a nett exporter like China was when they were flying.
 
Ockie said:
China is a powerhouse when it comes to manufacturing. Our exports most likely aint no where close to being big enough to take advantage of this. One thing where it could be good is for our tourism industry. Will make it cheaper for 1st World tourists to come here ... but thanks to our new laws we could expect this industry to suffer also despite the low value rand.
Click to expand...
China wasn't 30 years ago. Nor was India 20 years ago. These things all start somewhere due to a competitive advantage. We have one now with the rand at these levels.
 
Midnight_choir_drunk said:
The hope should be this gives Incentive for us to produce locally rather than import. In future then to become a net exporter of certain goods. The only thing preventing this is apathy and lack of drive.

I know a Taiwanese guy who owns a factory here producing low end electronics. Two plate stoves and kettles and the likes. Simple stuff to mass produce and yet we still import the majority of it. All it requires is the will and drive but we're too addicted to importing and marking up healthy profits. That's a real inflation driver.

Just because our economy was traditionally one way that doesn't mean we can afford not to adapt.
Click to expand...

Well, if you take Defy appliances for example. They are made locally, but they dont seem all that much cheaper than imported appliances. If it aint cheaper, then why would people buy local if they have the perception that imported goods like Samsung or LG that is priced similar are better brands.
 
Ockie said:
And a government that does not know WTF it is doing. Dont expect too much to happen.
Click to expand...
Yes this is the biggest part of the problem. It would be a relatively small investment for government to fund a local car manufacturer or a local electronics one. Not run it.....just help support private start ups in a meaningful way. Funding, tax free incentives etc.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top
Sign up to the MyBroadband newsletter
X