The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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Johnatan56 said:
That article you linked says USA will go into hyperinflation, highly doubt it.
Then it says buy gold because Buffet is buying gold, except it's not even 1% of his portfolio.

A bit of inflation is good for an economy, and the biggest issue has been that inflation is ~1% when targets for the last 10 years have been to try and get it around 2%. The problem was that they lowered interest rates too much.
And there is 0% chance of the US defaulting on its debt, that's pretty much impossible since they have more than enough reserves and the debt is in dollars, a currency they control.

And you'll probably start seeing a jump in GDP growth around Q4 (if not already end of Q3).
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Good luck with that.. winter is coming along with elections. Hopefully masks reduce the transmissions but confidence won’t return in winter.

Look their news lately say they going to follow Nzl, SA etc with avg inflation targeting which includes allowing the inflation to go above 2% (they want to avg 2) in short term.

Now some will see this as good and yes it is in a low to no inflation place.. but like in SA, the inflation basket is very “modified” to show lesser inflation. So gonna be very interesting with deficit being huge this year & next year in combination with political shenanigans going on.

The risk is obvious though, they let inflation run a bit, trade wars, Trump kicking up a fit post elections, etc with >100% debt load.. yah.. watch out.. interest rate could fly.. I doubt hyper but don’t be surprised it shooting to double figures. This wouldn’t be the 1st time this has happen.

Keep in mind while all this is happening, US tech industry has just began derisking from the US. Now that’s not entirely a new thing.. eg FANGM all have offices globally.. but they are now tech startups are starting to look at distributed workforce from cheaper and easier to just the fact that competition is easier to handle when looking globally. So Trump’s H1B1 freeze is gonna bite.
 
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Strange you'd have thought the R would have tanked quite a bit after yesterday's announcement of SAs dismal Q1 GDP results... In fact itseems to be doing v the opposite.l, at least for now.

Must be international/US or emerging market news affecting it.

Dollar @ R16.73 currently, and at R21.62 to £ from overnight 22.0x as I type.


Hoping it gets to 21 (unlikely!) as I need to move balance of my money back to UK before I leave SA for good.
 
MirageF1 said:
Strange you'd have thought the R would have tanked quite a bit after yesterday's announcement of SAs dismal Q1 GDP results... In fact itseems to be doing v the opposite.l, at least for now.

Must be international/US or emerging market news affecting it.

Dollar @ R16.73 currently, and at R21.62 to £ from overnight 22.0x as I type.


Hoping it gets to 21 (unlikely!) as I need to move balance of my money back to UK before I leave SA for good.
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Yeah, I agree. I expected something, but it didnt happen.

Good luck with with the move.
 
MirageF1 said:
Strange you'd have thought the R would have tanked quite a bit after yesterday's announcement of SAs dismal Q1 GDP results... In fact itseems to be doing v the opposite.l, at least for now.

Must be international/US or emerging market news affecting it.

Dollar @ R16.73 currently, and at R21.62 to £ from overnight 22.0x as I type.


Hoping it gets to 21 (unlikely!) as I need to move balance of my money back to UK before I leave SA for good.
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Was already forecast for a while, didn't come as a surprise and people probably expected it.
 
Johnatan56 said:
Was already forecast for a while, didn't come as a surprise and people probably expected it.
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The markets might have expected it, but strengthening considerably within 24 hrs against the dollar (2.3%+) on the back of such a dismal result and continued negative outlook still makes little sense.
 
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A bit up and down but finished off a fair bit weaker for the day, any guesses as to what happens tomorrow?

1599774700210.png
 
MirageF1 said:
Hoping it gets to 21 (unlikely!) as I need to move balance of my money back to UK before I leave SA for good.
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If there is a no deal Brexit (which is highly probable now), it could go as low as 18. The Conservative government is actively planning on breaking international law which will destroy any trust in the UK economy.
 
There's a whale of support at 16.545

We're testing that again

We may bounce up once or twice more (16.82 is important), but I expect Rand to strengthen for next month or so

We will probably only have the real test at 16.54 by Friday. Last week was non-farm and a whole bunch of US bonds ticked over, hence the bouncy ball

usdzar20200915.PNG
 
I'm eying 16.30 by end of month. Or maybe we chill around where we are now (16.54-16.80). I guess it depends if trump starts a war with Iran

I dunno if that is a good or a bad thing for the Rand tho
 
Here's hoping for a miraculous strengthening to sub 19 for £/R last seen end of Dec 2019... In the short term.
Currently sitting at 21.26

Would help a lot with my accrued UK storage bill I've got to settle soon+ 20% effin vat.... sigh
Last exchanged some African Wildlife( Rands )at 21.50 a few months back.
 
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