The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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And the pain continues. I'm hoping elections go smoothly and the MTBPS shows some restraint next week, in which case there might be a pullback. After that I'm borrowing a few bar (ZAR) from my broker at 4.4% and going short. Med/Long term we're stuffed, may as well make bank when we go full Argentina.
 
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Today, yes, off news24... Bought a bit from fnb at 15.30 or thereabouts yesterday.
 
R15,14 to the Dollar and still improving....

Dollar weakness as a result of Biden's Russian Oil ban?
 
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FlashSA said:
R15,14 to the Dollar and still improving....

Dollar weakness as a result of Biden's Russian Oil ban?
Click to expand...
1646831033150.png
Just general market movement, rand is getting a little stronger, mostly due to export (e.g. South Africa coal exports will increase as take up Russia slack, and South Africa exports metals). Still quite volatile, probably would have gotten stronger if no load shedding.

The EUR though is interesting:
1646831200509.png
Inflation caught up quite a bit there, gas prices, the war, etc.
1646831234587.png
Good as transferring the last of my rand over this month.
 
From a newsletter I receive
  • As the Ukraine war enters its third week, to say that’s markets are in a serious state of disarray is a serious understatement.
  • Commodity prices continue their upward march at an alarming pace. Currencies are all over the show, our bond yields have skyrocketed, with the benchmark R186 rising close to 100bp over the last week, and equity markets remain depressed.
  • Gold is now well above 2000 Dollar per ounce, and oil remains elevated at around 130 dollars a barrel.
  • There are much longer term implications for cost of living as a result of this conflict – many which we will discuss in weeks and months to come. But best we all start shopping for bicycles soon.
  • One of the only bright lights on the scene is the strength of the ZAR ….it remains a lone soldier in a sea of red. I cannot recall ever seeing this kind of performance for the currency whilst our bond market is experiencing a proper blow out.
 
SA just recorded highest current account surplus on record, driven by high commodity prices/exports, and low imports due to struggling economy. While the commodities boom continues, so does ZAR strength. Worldwide recession may put an end to that, regardless of how long the Ukraine situation continues. This party isn't going to last forever.
 
as long as the interest rate differential between the FED and SARB increases, so too will the rand improve
 
Rand has been doing exceptionally well in last few months, in spite of global uncertainty around Russian/Ukraine war and oil and gas prices, SA gov's neutral stance on the crisis... would have expected a weakened R yet it continues to make strong gains...??

Screenshot_20220324_152248_com.xe.currency.jpg

I think it's close to its strongest point in last 12 months (19.01 to GBP), all rather counter intuitive...
 
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and the SARB increases rates, and so my statement of a few weeks ago will continue to hold until something happens
 
MirageF1 said:
Rand has been doing exceptionally well in last few months, in spite of global uncertainty around Russian/Ukraine war and oil and gas prices, SA gov's neutral stance on the crisis... would have expected a weakened R yet it continues to make strong gains...??

View attachment 1276552

I think it's close to its strongest point in last 12 months (19.01 to GBP), all rather counter intuitive...
Click to expand...

Will I too below 19, I wonder.

19.20 this morning.
 
Sinbad said:
Here's food for thought

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507337312744591364
Click to expand...
f102180533b30f1fa8a923e9a91f78ba.jpg
 
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