The ZAR Exchange Rate Thread

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MirageF1 said:
Different times, the world and this country have moved on...
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And back then we had doom prophets as well.

The ZAR will recover and then it will tank again and it will recover and it will tank again.

We are completely insignificant in a global sense and very little of what we do or our government stuffs up is going to have any impact on the exchange rate.

The world is currently in turmoil and we are just going along for the ride.
 
MirageF1 said:
Really, take a look back 10 years and then tell me what the trend has been? Glaringly obvious to all but the delusional.
Dream on, dreamer.

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Exactly. A dollar buys 2.2x more ZAR now. The average salary in SA is 1.6x higher than 10 years ago. Then, this 1.6x is largely inflated by the gov being the largest employer and paying above market rates
 
MirageF1 said:
Really, take a look back 10 years and then tell me what the trend has been? Glaringly obvious to all but the delusional.
Dream on, dreamer.

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I don't dispute the fact that the ZAR depreciates, just tired of the doomsday prophecies every time it takes a dip.

It's nothing new and it isn't going to change.

Despite the dips though things are still carry on. There's still investment, there's still development, there's still money to be made.
 
Arzy said:
I don't dispute the fact that the ZAR depreciates, just tired of the doomsday prophecies every time it takes a dip.

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Very protracted steep dip, and this is not just a blip, it's a 1 year chart, nor world events only to blame, or strengthening dollar. This is reflective of the appalling state of the country's infrastructure, continued endemic corruption and wastage by government and junk status international business sentiment in SA which has been eroded away to a point that even Zimbabweans make a laughing stock of this place.
Go figure huh.
Or ok if it makes you happy, call me a Doomsdayer, I prefer the word pragmatist.



Screenshot_20221026_014337_com.xe.currency.jpg
 
MirageF1 said:
Very protracted steep dip, and this is not just a blip, it's a 1 year chart, nor world events only to blame, or strengthening dollar. This is reflective of the appalling state of the country's infrastructure, continued endemic corruption and wastage by government and junk status international business sentiment in SA which has been eroded away to a point that even Zimbabweans make a laughing stock of this place.
Go figure huh.
Or ok if it makes you happy, call me a Doomsdayer, I prefer the word pragmatist.



View attachment 1408843
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But it isn't just ZAR which is taking strain, do the same 1 year chart for USD/GBP, USD/EUR, USD/Yuan and you'll note they've weakened 15% over the same period.

USD/YEN 29.8%
USD/AUD 17.3%
USD/CAD 10%
USD/NZD 24.8%

Once again, I don't dispute SA is in a bad space.

Using exchange rates as the only measure to illustrate that though people should start planning on moving from New Zealand and Japan should be filled with dread.
 
BBSA said:
Better than expected US CPI data.
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So they had good CPI data and then the USD weakened? Oh is it because the implication of that is that the Fed won't raise rates as much at their next meeting and lower rates means a weaker dollar?
 
StrontiumDog said:
OK what just happened? The xrate moved 30c in the last 30 minutes!

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US elections.

I'm still surprised that people here think that the ZAR's performance is purely based on our local politics. It isn't.

The GBP has been hammered too, as have most currencies against the USD over the last year or so.
 
genetic said:
US elections.

I'm still surprised that people here think that the ZAR's performance is purely based on our local politics. It isn't.

The GBP has been hammered too, as have most currencies against the USD over the last year or so.
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I suspected it was likely something US based but I wasn't sure what. Looks like the move in the USD/ZAR xrate from R18.41 to R17.71 (by 8 November) was due to the midterm elections, but the immediate 30c drop yesterday (10 November) was at 15:30 SA time which was when their CPI results were released.
 
genetic said:
US elections.

I'm still surprised that people here think that the ZAR's performance is purely based on our local politics. It isn't.

The GBP has been hammered too, as have most currencies against the USD over the last year or so.
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Agree 100%

With inflation data looking better than expected, the Fed is expected to be less aggressive with rates. Folks who have cash stashed here in the US are quite happy with their 3 to 3.5% interest ............. those days will be coming to an end I guess.

Interestingly, Monday, I was looking at gas at $3.45 gal, today we are at $3.19 and Murphy (Walmart) and Kroger are down at $3.04.

I also believe that many expected the Republicans to take a bigger slice of the house and senate ..... and of course, their election message was all about the economy. But that race is still going on and GA will be going to a runoff .. so lets see.
 
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