Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014 ??????????

Great news!

Means my Unit Trust and ETFs and RA can buy for cheap the rest of the year :D

I fail to see why any long term investor will be worried in the least, especially one that is contributing regularly, except one that is very close to "cashing out", like retiring, but one should already have been nearly done phasing into mostly lower risk asset classes.
 
supersunbird said:
Great news!

Means my Unit Trust and ETFs and RA can buy for cheap the rest of the year :D

I fail to see why any long term investor will be worried in the least, especially one that is contributing regularly, except one that is very close to "cashing out", like retiring, but one should already have been nearly done phasing into mostly lower risk asset classes.
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^that^
 
Well, we certainly are in a massive asset bubble. QE and trillions in fiat USD and EUR have artificially pumped up many instruments, especially derivatives. Gravity works inevitably, so there will at some point be an adjustment. But who knows when?
 
You must remember that on average every expert has 1.5 opinions on any issue, so when two get together you get three different views.

Also, experts can and do have diametrically opposite and even contradictory views about what money is. These views are held with religious fervour. This is one of the most basic cleavages in the world.

In the end you've got to pick your own experts. Ultimately, you've got to develop your own views, your own philosophy of value and money, and act accordingly. It's your money after all.
 
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supersunbird said:
Great news!

Means my Unit Trust and ETFs and RA can buy for cheap the rest of the year :D

I fail to see why any long term investor will be worried in the least, especially one that is contributing regularly, except one that is very close to "cashing out", like retiring, but one should already have been nearly done phasing into mostly lower risk asset classes.
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Couldn't agree more. Same thing when the gold price crashed. Great opportunity to load up on more unit trusts, ETFs and gold. If you're investing for the long term (which is how most people should be investing) then you should welcome these "crashes".
 
Ou grote said:
I do not think that you understand cleavage.
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He understands it perfectly, political cleavage. It is one of the lesser usages, that of a split between two or more groups (normally political, but can be anything dogmatic) that is regarded as fixed and irreconcilable. Like the state/church seperation, or communist v capitalist, Republican v Democrat, Labour v Tory etc.
 
This is so confusing. With this financial crisis the money I have saved is sitting in my bank account earning no interest because I can't decide where to invest. Argh.
 
Sensorei said:
This is so confusing. With this financial crisis the money I have saved is sitting in my bank account earning no interest because I can't decide where to invest. Argh.
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What financial crisis? You are the only one holding yourself back.

You could at least have it in at least a Capitec Bank or a Money Market fund earning you interest.
 
When they speak of a crash ready yourself for a rally which in all probability will be followed by a cooling down period. The market goes through cycles and yes the stock markets are hitting new highs so it is bound to go through a 'cooling off' or correction cycle.

During such a cycle the markets can contract anything from 20 to 60 percent depending on how inflated prices where before the correction. This contraction is not a 'crash' but a normal occurrence as investors move into and out of the markets i.e. near the peaks most start cashing in their chips which eventually results in the correction as the herd starts to follow.

So I will not venture to say we are heading for a crash but rather that yes, we will have a correction but I believe that we will see a last rally before this happens. Keep your eye on the gold price. Gold is always a very good indicator of market sentiment. In times of crisis the gold price tends to climb as investors pile into more tangible and secure assets like for example gold. So uncertainty in the markets usually results in a stronger gold price.

Also, when the markets are making new highs and there is plenty of confidence in the markets you will note that the gold price is usually subdued and hardly goes anywhere.

Just two final notes. There are usually more money to be made during the times of market corrections than times when the market rallies. The main reason for this being that investors usually get in late on rallies and leave lots of profit on the table when exiting the markets where as your more astute investors buy in at the lower 'corrected' prices and as a result usually ride the full wave up when the markets recover and thus earn more from their investments over time. This is why you will always see plenty of millionaires who come out the 'depressed' periods where we had market contractions for example the 1930's depression.

The second note is the gold price. The S&P 500 and most other markets had a stunning day yesterday and many new highs were made. At the same time gold has shown a rather big jump and there were some serious trading activity on it.

From lessons learned that tells me that the 'smart' money is busy leaving the market and piling into places where the money can be parked relatively safely i.e. gold.

As said, keep one eye on the gold price. Best indicator of market sentiment you will ever find.

EDIT: Attached is a daily gold chart. One can clearly see that the prices is starting to pickup. January not so much but February thus far had quite a nice run.

gold.jpg
 
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1. Want to buy stocks at low price.
2. Speculate.
3. Seriously??????
4. Profit.
 
Thanks, Bruce.

You can't blame Ou Grote because I suspect English is not his first tongue, and the only way he's heard it is in application to female breasts.

But the word is is the substantive form of the verb to cut or split or divide. A butcher's chopper is called a cleaver, for example. Cleavage is also used in mineralogy, chemistry, and other sciences. The verb to cleave, and thus the state of cleavage, is also used to describe the marital act (sex), as in Genesis 2, where the man shall cleave to his wife, and the two become one flesh. But by far its widest use is simply to denote a splitting, dividing.
 
Oh look. Another in a constant flow of predictions. What happened to 2012 and 2013's financial doomsday predictions?
 
I personally feel that with the QE program being scaled back and the developed economies starting to recover, we are going to see muted returns while excess liquidity is slowly being drained from the system. On top of this we will see volatility in our market increase along with other emerging markets as investors in developed markets aren't forced to invest in the emerging markets to get decent returns.

In a nutshell I see a lumpy 2 years ahead with lower overall returns but no market crash based on environment currently. If some disaster happens or some political instability starts in a major oil producing country then this changes again.
 
supersunbird said:
Great news!

Means my Unit Trust and ETFs and RA can buy for cheap the rest of the year :D

I fail to see why any long term investor will be worried in the least, especially one that is contributing regularly, except one that is very close to "cashing out", like retiring, but one should already have been nearly done phasing into mostly lower risk asset classes.
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If it falls by 50% I'll drink a cold one, sell a kidney and top up all my current shares :D
 
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