What does the future hold for iBurst?

[Durandal]

I do not agree with your sentiments. iBurst is the best placed wireless operator to ride the wave of WiMAX and LTE.

So.... There really don't seem to be many options? You can't offer us greaters speeds unless you do a huge, expensive, and thus unlikely upgrade to the entire network, which means we're pretty much stuck where wer are now - nice speeds at certain times, yukky speeds at other times. Your only other option then seems to offer bigger packages at the current prices? I mean, if I have read the comments here properly, and I stand to be corrected, you don't have much in the wayof incentives to offer your customers to stay once, for example, the mobile operators offer broadband access at decent rates.

I understand what you're saying, that to an extent your hands are tied by regulations, but surely the writing must have been on the wall years ago already -- you should have been raising hell way back then to get greater spectrum allocation for your network.

 

[Jagtiger]

Sorry but HSPA+ is still not the answer for wireless gamers. Latencies on HSPA+ are still quite high and not good for online gaming locally and internationally, and I know people who use iBurst/Wimax primarily for online gaming when they dont have a Telkom landline. I get just as good latency on iBurst with online gaming compared to Wimax and ADSL.

Seen recent latency tests with HSPA+, it's very close to iBurst.
WiMAX for some reason is counted as business solution, not user solution. And never will be rolled out as standard connection by iBurst. They said that many times on this forum.

 

[eltherza]

you should have been raising hell way back then to get greater spectrum allocation for your network.

Well, until rather recently iBurst was in the running for more spectrum, but for some (perhaps corrupt reason) the offer was retracted... considering that only iBurst and Sentech applied for it and the current situation with sentech, you can't help but wonder that it's the case if "either sentech gets it or no-one does". But maybe I've got my facts confused, I don't pay much attention to sentech related news.

 

[Durandal]

Well, until rather recently iBurst was in the running for more spectrum, but for some (perhaps corrupt reason) the offer was retracted... considering that only iBurst and Sentech applied for it and the current situation with sentech, you can't help but wonder that it's the case if "either sentech gets it or no-one does". But maybe I've got my facts confused, I don't pay much attention to sentech related news.

Lol, the usual reaction when someone mentions Sentech is astonishment that they still exist.

 

[r00igev@@r]

Actually Ethernet comes in a number of specifications.
The specification you are talking about has been dead for serious use for a long time now.
Ethernet has evolved to the 1GB specifications and better where Iburst still needs to do that

Semantics, the specification has evolved but its birth has not. That is like saying flight is irrelevant because the Wright Brother's flyer was primitive compared to a Jumbo 747. The point is we still fly and we still use Ethernet.

BTW: I still shed a tear for token-ring... :-(

 

[Mental-Tree]

^Do you also miss coaxial networks ?

 

[eltherza]

^Do you also miss coaxial networks ?

Yeah, i do I was one of the few with a terminator, I was a legend!

 

[ibb]

r00igev@@r, your attempts at deflection are pretty lame.

The OP question was if there is a future for iBurst and you try and deflect by saying yes, if only you could get more spectrum. You know well the reality is that even if ICASA gave you 100MHz of spectrum tomorrow, there is no iBurst roadmap for this.

Can you state otherwise?

Of course you can't. So let's put the iBurst-future question to bed: It has no future.

Then, even if WBS gets more spectrum, what will they do with it? As posted above you need shareholders with DEEP pockets and a huge appetite for risk to build a brand new network in the local landscape. Cell-C just showed us all they've got a huge pair by doing exactly this. But they're spending R5 Billion and have no guarantee it will pay of. Respect to the Cell-C CEO for that, BTW. I don't see WBS doing the same.

Can you state otherwise?

So you can go on as much as you like about Ethernet, Token Ring and Kitty Hawk.

The reality is iBurst is dead. I take no personal pleasure in this. As a matter of fact, I studied the technology when it launched and always thought it to be very advanced.

But all that is now academic. The product is end-of-life.

Actually, to prove me wrong you only need to post two bits of information:

1) What is the road map for speeds over 1Mb/s and what are the launch dates for these?

2) Compared to the launch price what has the price decrease been year-on-year for the modems? As you know volumes drive pricing, so if iBurst modems are selling like hotcakes (globally) an iBurst modem, that originally retailed for about R2000, should be under R400 today.

If you can confirm these two simple points, I'll concede the technology is not dead.

But somehow I suspect we're not going to see the roadmap, dates or pricing.

 

[Jagtiger]

If future firmware upgrades and iCASA allocation will not follow, including new pricing, there will be no future for iBurst.

 

[eltherza]

r00igev@@r, your attempts at deflection are pretty lame.

The OP question was if there is a future for iBurst and you try and deflect by saying yes, if only you could get more spectrum. You know well the reality is that even if ICASA gave you 100MHz of spectrum tomorrow, there is no iBurst roadmap for this.

Can you state otherwise?

Of course you can't. So let's put the iBurst-future question to bed: It has no future.

Then, even if WBS gets more spectrum, what will they do with it? As posted above you need shareholders with DEEP pockets and a huge appetite for risk to build a brand new network in the local landscape. Cell-C just showed us all they've got a huge pair by doing exactly this. But they're spending R5 Billion and have no guarantee it will pay of. Respect to the Cell-C CEO for that, BTW. I don't see WBS doing the same.

Can you state otherwise?

So you can go on as much as you like about Ethernet, Token Ring and Kitty Hawk.

The reality is iBurst is dead. I take no personal pleasure in this. As a matter of fact, I studied the technology when it launched and always thought it to be very advanced.

But all that is now academic. The product is end-of-life.

Actually, to prove me wrong you only need to post two bits of information:

1) What is the road map for speeds over 1Mb/s and what are the launch dates for these?

2) Compared to the launch price what has the price decrease been year-on-year for the modems? As you know volumes drive pricing, so if iBurst modems are selling like hotcakes (globally) an iBurst modem, that originally retailed for about R2000, should be under R400 today.

If you can confirm these two simple points, I'll concede the technology is not dead.

But somehow I suspect we're not going to see the roadmap, dates or pricing.

Whoa, slow down there. r00igev@@r works at iBurst, true, but give him a break okay? Not like he calls all the shots at iBurst, and not like he has complete control over spectrum, product offerings, hardware. you've asked for, quite frankly, competition sensitive info. And from 2 completely separate sections of the company. In my line of work I can show you a small detailed part of my projects roadmap, a 2 year plan (maybe some vision into beyond that) buy I definitely would not show that to anyone here, it's our competitive edge. I don't go anywhere near pricing at all. And I never will.

Don't expect r00igev@@r to have all the answers. Don't expect him to reveal anything, for all we know iBurst towers already have 3G 21Mbps network on them, they just need the legal right to offer it. I'm sure r00igev@@r is passionate about what he does, and this is his lively hood so he's conscience of all this. And he's perhaps even more frustrated at the lack of spectrum more than any of us here.

 

[D3x]

I know.

 

[Durandal]

Whoa, slow down there. r00igev@@r works at iBurst, true, but give him a break okay? Not like he calls all the shots at iBurst, and not like he has complete control over spectrum, product offerings, hardware. you've asked for, quite frankly, competition sensitive info. And from 2 completely separate sections of the company. In my line of work I can show you a small detailed part of my projects roadmap, a 2 year plan (maybe some vision into beyond that) buy I definitely would not show that to anyone here, it's our competitive edge. I don't go anywhere near pricing at all. And I never will.

Don't expect r00igev@@r to have all the answers. Don't expect him to reveal anything, for all we know iBurst towers already have 3G 21Mbps network on them, they just need the legal right to offer it. I'm sure r00igev@@r is passionate about what he does, and this is his lively hood so he's conscience of all this. And he's perhaps even more frustrated at the lack of spectrum more than any of us here.

I agree with what you're saying about not taking it out on Rooi - I feel sorry for the bloke for all the flak he has to take here on behalf of iBurst. But the thing I find frustrating is that they say nothing at all. There's not even a hint of anything happening. And a lot of what ibb and others have said here is very valid (I hadn't even thought about the modem price issue until he mentioned it). So really, if a better option does come up - whether or not it happens to be Cell C or someone else - we're going to leave in droves. I just don't see iBurst making any effort to say, "Hey, hold your horses - we've got something huge on the way, and we guarantee you're going to want to be part of it."

 

[r00igev@@r]

r00igev@@r, your attempts at deflection are pretty lame.

The OP question was if there is a future for iBurst and you try and deflect by saying yes, if only you could get more spectrum. You know well the reality is that even if ICASA gave you 100MHz of spectrum tomorrow, there is no iBurst roadmap for this.

Can you state otherwise?

Of course you can't. So let's put the iBurst-future question to bed: It has no future.

Then, even if WBS gets more spectrum, what will they do with it? As posted above you need shareholders with DEEP pockets and a huge appetite for risk to build a brand new network in the local landscape. Cell-C just showed us all they've got a huge pair by doing exactly this. But they're spending R5 Billion and have no guarantee it will pay of. Respect to the Cell-C CEO for that, BTW. I don't see WBS doing the same.

Can you state otherwise?

So you can go on as much as you like about Ethernet, Token Ring and Kitty Hawk.

The reality is iBurst is dead. I take no personal pleasure in this. As a matter of fact, I studied the technology when it launched and always thought it to be very advanced.

But all that is now academic. The product is end-of-life.

Actually, to prove me wrong you only need to post two bits of information:

1) What is the road map for speeds over 1Mb/s and what are the launch dates for these?

2) Compared to the launch price what has the price decrease been year-on-year for the modems? As you know volumes drive pricing, so if iBurst modems are selling like hotcakes (globally) an iBurst modem, that originally retailed for about R2000, should be under R400 today.

If you can confirm these two simple points, I'll concede the technology is not dead.

But somehow I suspect we're not going to see the roadmap, dates or pricing.

Not as lame as someone who doesn't sign his name as a signature on the forum. You never answered my question. I'll take your own advice you once gave me and ignore you.

 

[eltherza]

I just don't see iBurst making any effort to say, "Hey, hold your horses - we've got something huge on the way, and we guarantee you're going to want to be part of it."

But if you consider the past year alone.

Pricing decrease, almost half the cost of bandwidth
Introduced 128K VAS
Gave us all 466.64 MB free
Gave us all free after hour usage for 3 months
And with that came, completely free, discounted after usage + VAS free after usage.

It's not like iBurst are not trying. Other than cellcs new offering, iburst is still the cheapest for bandwidth (for anyone who uses below 10GB)

 

[Durandal]

But if you consider the past year alone.

Pricing decrease, almost half the cost of bandwidth
Introduced 128K VAS
Gave us all 466.64 MB free
Gave us all free after hour usage for 3 months
And with that came, completely free, discounted after usage + VAS free after usage.

It's not like iBurst are not trying. Other than cellcs new offering, iburst is still the cheapest for bandwidth (for anyone who uses below 10GB)

No, I don't disagree with you. Yes, they did make some good moves and yes, they're still, from what I understand, the cheapest, as you say. But what I am saying, is what now? If, for example, Cell C manages to achieve its plans, and if those prices stil stay as they are, then when my iBurst contract comes up, I'd personally switch to them because what I want now is better speeds, not more bandwidth. iBurst doesn't seem to have any plans to move forwards from this point, from where it is now. While the rest of the industry is moving forwards.

 

[ibb]

But if you consider the past year alone.

Pricing decrease, almost half the cost of bandwidth
Introduced 128K VAS
Gave us all 466.64 MB free
Gave us all free after hour usage for 3 months
And with that came, completely free, discounted after usage + VAS free after usage.

It's not like iBurst are not trying. Other than cellcs new offering, iburst is still the cheapest for bandwidth (for anyone who uses below 10GB)

Absolutely. They've done a lot of things to stay competitive on the pricing front. But you cannot maintain any level of profitability if you just keep on dropping your prices to compete.

At some point you must increase the value proposition. And it is here where iBurst finds itself in a cul-de-sac. The technology is stuck at 1Mb/s with an expensive modem. Up to now they had a good value offer if measured against the mobile companies and even ADSL.

But Cell-C for ever changed the game. Just like MWEB did with uncapped DSL.

Cell-C claims they have 1600 HSPA+ towers running at 21Mb/s. How can you compete with 250 towers running at 1Mb/s......and you are more expensive?

No amount of spectrum can fix this.

If iBurst is clever and wants to retain their customer base, they should take their cue from Neotel and migrate their subscribers to WiMax. They'll need to decide if they want to retain a subscriber (at a loss as WiMax is more expensive) or loose the customer forever.

Basically a no-win situation for iBurst. And, be extension, their customers.

 

[eltherza]

While the rest of the industry is moving forwards.

Except telkom and neotel

Cell-C claims they have 1600 HSPA+ towers running at 21Mb/s. How can you compete with 250 towers running at 1Mb/s......and you are more expensive?

I agree, with cellcs offering cheaper than iBurst, it really is an offering to take seriously, but my experience with 3G hasn't been the best when it comes to latency (what I care about). If cellc does prove itself as a solid service, you'd have to be crazy not to choose the cheaper and faster option.

According to hardware stats taken by steam the most popular connection, world wide is 2MB, amazingly 56% is 2M or lower.

iBurst is not "ancient" yet, and taking the law that communications increases by 50% every year, it comes that 56% of the world population will be 6MB or slower. Considering SA's poor general performance on internet speeds and telkom, you can say that 384K users will perhaps only be pushed to 1MB in about 3 years. So 1MB iBurst has at least 3 years before it starts to been seen as losing the speed race. There is time for iBurst to win spectrum and invest in upgrades.

Till then I'm more than happy with price reductions (*hint hint*)

 

[r00igev@@r]

Except telkom and neotel



I agree, with cellcs offering cheaper than iBurst, it really is an offering to take seriously, but my experience with 3G hasn't been the best when it comes to latency (what I care about). If cellc does prove itself as a solid service, you'd have to be crazy not to choose the cheaper and faster option.

According to hardware stats taken by steam the most popular connection, world wide is 2MB, amazingly 56% is 2M or lower.

iBurst is not "ancient" yet, and taking the law that communications increases by 50% every year, it comes that 56% of the world population will be 6MB or slower. Considering SA's poor general performance on internet speeds and telkom, you can say that 384K users will perhaps only be pushed to 1MB in about 3 years. So 1MB iBurst has at least 3 years before it starts to been seen as losing the speed race. There is time for iBurst to win spectrum and invest in upgrades.

Till then I'm more than happy with price reductions (*hint hint*)

None of the product or marketing people read the stuff here. Send your hints to [email protected]

 

[ibb]

So 1MB iBurst has at least 3 years before it starts to been seen as losing the speed race.

Except iBurst is not in the race.

If you look at how 3G (as used by MTN, Cell-C, VC, Telkom and the rest of the world) evolved over the last 5 (and next 3) years, it looks like this:

384K->1.8M->3.6M-7.2M->14.4M->21M->42M->100M->1G (LTE is already achieving 100Mb/s and 1.5Gb/s have been achieved in the labs)

If you look at how iBurst evolved over the last 5 (and next 3) years, it looks like this:

1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s->1Mb/s

Even Telkom's DSL shows an upgrade path:

384K->512K->1M->4M->10M (Quite sad for a fixed line provider though)

While CDMA (Neotel in SA) is in a similar situation as iBurst, i.e. no upgrade path, there still is a future for WiMax with a well defined roadmap to .m that will give 4G speeds, i.e. 100Mb/s+. Neotel knows this and are moving their customers over to WiMax from CDMA.

The 'speed race' has become a 2-horse race with LTE and WiMax the only runners left. iBurst never left the starting gates, DSL is limping along on 3 legs and CDMA ran off the track..

There is time for iBurst to win spectrum and invest in upgrades.

Hopefully, but most likely not. They'll need more spectrum and at least a Billion or two to build a new network. Where will this come from? Their only source of revenue (iBurst) is dwindling rapidly as customers churn away.

Even if 1Mb/s is good enough for most people, when faster options are available, in the same price range, we tend to go for them.

And Cell-C not only gives much high speeds, but at a lower cost than iBurst.

It will be interesting to see the churn rate for iBurst in PE, Bloem and Durbs over the next month.

 

[eltherza]

384K->1.8M->3.6M-7.2M->14.4M->21M->42M->100M->1G

I don't think we'll be seeing wireless 1GB within the next three years, I think we'd be closer to the 42MB and about busy testing/rolling out 100M. But I agree with your point, the upgrade path of 3G is going very quickly and it's exponential. And how can you offer 1M line when a 21M line is up for offer at the same price...

384K->512K->1M->4M->10M (Quite sad for a fixed line provider though)

512K should have been upgraded to 4M by now, and 384 should be 1M... telkom are dragging their feet...

Even if 1Mb/s is good enough for most people, when faster options are available, in the same price range, we tend to go for them.

I will be getting cellc 3G as soon as it's enabled in my area (and lower my iBurst package for backup). So I guess that actually confirms that there will be a loss in clients from iBurst, but I still stand that iBurst can still keep it together for another 3 years...