Why is my geyser not working?

It's winter, water ambient temp is much colder. I've had to bump up the time for my geyser to heat up sufficiently.

I'm guessing your problem is much the same.
 
When do you get the surprise cold showers? In the morning before 10am I would imagine. I can't see that running the geyser for 1.5h in the afternoon will provide enough hot water to last the night.
Mostly but happens in the evenings as well. During most of these cold cases nobody would use this geyser beforehand and the first person would experience the cold.
 
It's winter, water ambient temp is much colder. I've had to bump up the time for my geyser to heat up sufficiently.

I'm guessing your problem is much the same.
The issue is intermittent so not sure. Happens on cold and warmer days

Yesterday morning we boosted geyser for 40min from 5:30 till 6:10. The water was cold at 6:15 - not even luke warm but app confirmed electricity usage
 
The time slots are too little.
I've had to increase the number of "top-up" to keep the geyser water at desired temps.
Colder intake water and more heat loss to geyser radiation.

Once the temps drop to 35-40 degrees, it takes a lot of energy to get it back up to 55/60 degrees.

In summer our geyser only ran on pv from 12h00 till 16h00 on non-essential, as winter came I added a evening 20:30-21:00 slot, and now two during the night as well of 15min each.
 
Intermittently happening means it's unlikely to be a problem with the element. If that goes, it's gone and it won't come back. So IMO most likely it's cold water coming in that just needs more time to warm up.

For a 3kW element, you'll need about 2.5 hours to warm a 200L geyser up from scratch. So maybe bump up your slots a bit more. 1h and 1.5h are a bit short IMO.
 
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