2015 UK Election Thread

Hamish McPanji

Hamish McPanji

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Date: Thursday, May 7 2015

The UK election is upon us, and is likely to be the most interesting one since World War 2. As things stand, there is unlikely to be an outright winner with a "hung parliament" expected.

The 2 largest parties in the UK are the Conservative Party (Tories) led by David Cameron and the Labour Party led by Ed Miliband. They each are likely to win slightly above 1/3 of the vote, with the remaining 1/3 split between the smaller parties.

The United Kingdom has a "first past the post" system of voting, so there is no proportional representation and the winner of a constituency gets a parliamentary seat. There are a total of 650 seats

The % of the popular vote is largely irrelevant...and the government will typically be formed by the party with the majority, which is 326 seats. In the case that no party can muster a majority, they can form coalitions with other parties to make that majority.
 
Seat projections

www.may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

www.electionforecast.co.uk

Party Forecasts

Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss almost certain. Majority very unlikely. Plurality probable.

Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.

Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.

SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.

Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat gain probable.
Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss very unlikely.

UKIP. Fading slightly. Seat gain probable.
 
MickeyD said:
Watching Sky News... It's going to be close.
Click to expand...

Yeah , definitely a coalition as you said. As a lefty, am supporting Red Ed and Auntie Nicola .

The Lib Dems (used to be my party of choice) deserve to be punished for being the Tories bitches for the last 5 years...and hope Nick Clegg loses his Sheffield (my alma mater) seat and gets sacked.

#Cameron out

Edit: Hope Farrage loses too...that party of racists and crooks that he heads are an abomination. There must be like 10 candidates suspended by the party this year alone....largely for saying what the party really thinks
 
Last edited:
General Election 2015: Pollsters predict a Tory lead – but an Ed Miliband government


The Tories will win the most seats but won’t be able to put together a majority - so Ed Miliband would become prime minister with the support of the SNP

Sunday 03 May 2015

Each week since this general election campaign began,*The Independent on Sunday*has asked the heads of the 10 top polling companies for their predictions.* We combined their estimates, where they gave them, to arrive at the projected number of seats in the new House of Commons, excluding Northern Ireland.

Now it is crunch time. We can reveal the pollsters’ final forecasts. Their average prediction is that the Conservatives will win the most seats but won’t be able to put together a majority. So, Ed Miliband would become prime minister with the support, whether he wants it or not, of the SNP.

The Conservative lead over Labour widened again in the average forecast over the past week.

Conservatives 279 seats (+1 since last week); Labour 270 (-3); Scottish National Party 47 (+1); Liberal Democrats 27 (+1); Ukip 4, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1, Respect 1 (all unchanged)

The big change since our first poll of pollsters back in January is that Labour, then on 301 seats, has lost out to the SNP, then on 22. The Tories have gone up a little, from 273 seats. But our pollsters’ consensus forecast has hardly changed since the start of the formal campaign on 30 March, with the Tories down two seats and Labour down two. Note, however, that at the last election, all eight of our leading pollsters predicted a Tory majority (although as you see below, Ben Page changed his mind at the last minute), whereas their polls mostly pointed to what actually happened: the Tories falling 19 seats short.


Are you undecided about who to vote for on 7 May? Are you confused about what the parties stand for and what they are offering? Take this interactive quiz to help you decide who to vote for...


This time, their forecasts are very close to the average of the polls, which currently point to the Conservatives on 278, Labour 268, SNP 52, Lib Dems 27, Ukip 3, Others 5
Click to expand...

Full article and pollsters comments here: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...lead--but-a-miliband-government-10221488.html
 
Election 2015: BBC Poll tracker

The poll tracker measures opinion poll support for the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and UKIP ahead of the 2015 general election.

Compare the parties' current ratings from a range of pollsters, and see how they have performed since 2010.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker
 
Thanks for the useful info.

I don't pay much attention to the nuts & bolts of British politics except for the effect it has (or will have) on the outside world so this neatly wraps it up for me.
 
imranpanji said:
Yeah , definitely a coalition as you said. As a lefty, am supporting Red Ed and Auntie Nicola .

The Lib Dems (used to be my party of choice) deserve to be punished for being the Tories bitches for the last 5 years...and hope Nick Clegg loses his Sheffield (my alma mater) seat and gets sacked.

#Cameron out

Edit: Hope Farrage loses too...that party of racists and crooks that he heads are an abomination. There must be like 10 candidates suspended by the party this year alone....largely for saying what the party really thinks
Click to expand...

Bwhahaahaha.

Yes, well I can see why you would support Labour: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...s-prepared-to-pay-to-win-the-Muslim-vote.html

:rolleyes:

What a complete disaster Labour/SNP will be. Fairy economics for all.
 
Chris said:
Bwhahaahaha.

Yes, well I can see why you would support Labour: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...s-prepared-to-pay-to-win-the-Muslim-vote.html

:rolleyes:

What a complete disaster Labour/SNP will be. Fairy economics for all.
Click to expand...

And the conservatives fairy economics? 12 billion worth of cuts to be made? From where? They didn't manage 2billion in the last 5 years. Every week they are coming up with new promises for the electorate....with nary a clue where the extra money is going to come from.

Example:

www.theguardian.com/money/2015/apr/14/david-cameron-conservatives-childcare-manifesto


Well anything better than the Conservatives and UKIP....whom I am sure you are favorable to.

The only Con-lib coalition was a failure as the only benefit to liberals was that Nick Clegg photo ended up in the paper more often.
 
No one to take the seats needed, followed by weeks of behind the scenes wrangling. My bet is on a Labour-SNP coalition to govern. Labour will keep the UK in the EU, and Scotland will get close to the maximum devolution option which should have been on last year's referendum.

A note on how many seats are need, the House of Commons has 650 seats, but you don't need 326 to form the government. Their speaker comes from the largest party, but doesn't vote, and is listed without a party. Sinn Fein, is an Irish party, and won't take their seats in parliament, as it calls for an oath to the Queen, thus however many seats they get effectively don't count. Most projections calls for 323 seats to win. I will always hate first past the post voting though. I much prefer our proportional representation.
 
No one to take the seats needed, followed by weeks of behind the scenes wrangling. My bet is on a Labour-SNP coalition to govern. Labour will keep the UK in the EU, and Scotland will get close to the maximum devolution option which should have been on last year's referendum.

A note on how many seats are need, the House of Commons has 650 seats, but you don't need 326 to form the government. Their speaker comes from the largest party, but doesn't vote, and is listed without a party. Sinn Fein, is an Irish party, and won't take their seats in parliament, as it calls for an oath to the Queen, thus however many seats they get effectively don't count. Most projections calls for 323 seats to win. I will always hate first past the post voting though. I much prefer our proportional representation.
 
Folks have just voted. Conservatives ftw.
 
cr@zydude said:
No one to take the seats needed, followed by weeks of behind the scenes wrangling. My bet is on a Labour-SNP coalition to govern. Labour will keep the UK in the EU, and Scotland will get close to the maximum devolution option which should have been on last year's referendum.

A note on how many seats are need, the House of Commons has 650 seats, but you don't need 326 to form the government. Their speaker comes from the largest party, but doesn't vote, and is listed without a party. Sinn Fein, is an Irish party, and won't take their seats in parliament, as it calls for an oath to the Queen, thus however many seats they get effectively don't count. Most projections calls for 323 seats to win. I will always hate first past the post voting though. I much prefer our proportional representation.
Click to expand...

Labour categorically ruled out an SNP coalition multiple times over the past few months. If they go back on their word, come next 10 elections they are guaranteed to lose to the Tories because the English voters will be pissed.

More likely: Minority government, vote of no confidence and new elections in December.
 
JayM said:
Labour categorically ruled out an SNP coalition multiple times over the past few months. If they go back on their word, come next 10 elections they are guaranteed to lose to the Tories because the English voters will be pissed.

More likely: Minority government, vote of no confidence and new elections in December.
Click to expand...

Source?
 
JayM said:
Want 100? Go to Google, select "news" and search for "labour rules out SNP coalition". This was all over the news, even outside the UK.
Click to expand...

The first rule of politics....all politicians are liars.

2nd rule....power trumps principle.

It would never have been a conventional coalition anyway....it will be an agreement that SNP will support labour in a vote of no confidence in exchange for Labour siding with SNP in the case of reduced voting powers for Scot MP's....on a handshake.
 
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