Making it too risky for me as any move either way could be huge. I'd rather sit on it and if it goes upwards I can still buy before the SA market response.
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Bitcoin Thread
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Not too sure what's going to happen right now. It's staying just below resistance for the whole of today which says that that there is an upwards push in progress. Though the resistance is also part of a larger ascending wedge which is bearish and the worst place to be buying. There is also going to be heavy resistance at $7500 (0.618 fib). So my guess is down now or maybe a quick spike upwards to around $7500 but lots of selling and a move down afterwards.
The Luno price has gone up mostly because of the Rand/Dollar and both the dollar BTC price and the Rand have gone up a fair bit in the last few weeks. So it's a risky time to be buying on Luno since if either the Rand or BTC corrects, the Luno price will level out and drop. If both go in the same direction the Luno price will drop as fast as it went up.
The Luno price has gone up mostly because of the Rand/Dollar and both the dollar BTC price and the Rand have gone up a fair bit in the last few weeks. So it's a risky time to be buying on Luno since if either the Rand or BTC corrects, the Luno price will level out and drop. If both go in the same direction the Luno price will drop as fast as it went up.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
So there is a drop now. Broke below the support of the wedge. There is also support around $7100 but I think it's too close to the wedge to be a strong support. $7200 should also be a bit difficult to get above again because of 0.5 fib resistance and the wedge. It's more likely to drop to around $6800.
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Some nice articles & blog posts on Bitmex:
https://hackernoon.com/cryptocurrency-trading-bible-four-secrets-of-the-bitmex-masters-56d301675117
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...king-this-former-citi-trader-went-full-crypto
So much volume, so much leverage.
I'm not using it, just created an account to look around.
https://hackernoon.com/cryptocurrency-trading-bible-four-secrets-of-the-bitmex-masters-56d301675117
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...king-this-former-citi-trader-went-full-crypto
So much volume, so much leverage.
I'm not using it, just created an account to look around.
Random waffle:
With our economy and ZAR tanking - Bitcoin (for me) looks like just about the best way to store value. Gold can get stolen or confiscated by the state and not liquid enough. Foreign fiat is a pain to purchase and there are high fees and your bank knows about it. Bitcoin is easy to purchase, easy to move and (hopefully) will just keep on appreciating in the long term. I have actually moved and still moving some of my ZAR savings to Bitcoin. With our economy and ZAR going the way it is (mostly down the drain), I cannot see any ZAR savings being of any use in future. Just look at Zim, Venezuela and Turkey for reference.
With our economy and ZAR tanking - Bitcoin (for me) looks like just about the best way to store value. Gold can get stolen or confiscated by the state and not liquid enough. Foreign fiat is a pain to purchase and there are high fees and your bank knows about it. Bitcoin is easy to purchase, easy to move and (hopefully) will just keep on appreciating in the long term. I have actually moved and still moving some of my ZAR savings to Bitcoin. With our economy and ZAR going the way it is (mostly down the drain), I cannot see any ZAR savings being of any use in future. Just look at Zim, Venezuela and Turkey for reference.
Maybe look at something like goldmoney if interested in gold etc?
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Bitcoin is great for traders right now though for the general public I think it's too volatile. Also due to how accessible it is to trade, most would panic and sell the bottoms or buy the tops.
What I'm going to do though is store away some BTC and keep trading the rest. Will just keep a fixed amount on an Exchange for trading and any BTC profits will be stored away which I can hopefully grow to a sizable amount. So far so good. I started out trading BTC last year with about 10% of my total savings. This has grown to around 40% of my total savings.
So the daily is still looking rather ominously like a big fat h&s after this price drop.
Pack warmly, because if these price levels don't hold and this pattern plays out, it's gonna be a slightly longer winter.
Pack warmly, because if these price levels don't hold and this pattern plays out, it's gonna be a slightly longer winter.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
That was some drop. This time I think it has to drop much more. Shorts are piling on right now though which might make us go sideways for a bit first. If it does bounce a bit from here, max I see is $6650 right now.
The Heikin Ashi chart is also a useful indicator for longer term traders. Says it's time to hold cash. The time to get back in for a long hold is when there is indecision again. So the chart will start showing dojis and switch to green.
The Heikin Ashi chart is also a useful indicator for longer term traders. Says it's time to hold cash. The time to get back in for a long hold is when there is indecision again. So the chart will start showing dojis and switch to green.
phly
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unless you shorting then there is no need to hold cash but go all in (risk management should be in place).That was some drop. This time I think it has to drop much more. Shorts are piling on right now though which might make us go sideways for a bit first. If it does bounce a bit from here, max I see is $6650 right now.
The Heikin Ashi chart is also a useful indicator for longer term traders. Says it's time to hold cash. The time to get back in for a long hold is when there is indecision again. So the chart will start showing dojis and switch to green.
If you think 4k is incoming surely you'd hold cash until that bottom is found? I'd only go into BTC once an up move is confirmed.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Yeah you could short as well and profit from the downswings. Shorting seems a bit more risky though. Sometimes it might seem like a great price to short at. Shorts low etc. as well. Then the price goes sideways for a few days with maybe a tiny dip and recovery. Everybody and their grandmother starts shorting and they keep piling on until they get squeezed and squeeze you as well.
The same could happen for longs but I think this market is mostly made up of holders/traders who buy/sell actual BTC. i.e. don't take up long/short contracts. Then you have people who are shorting. There's no real reason for many to take out long contracts as it's pretty much the same as buying and holding.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
These are the fib levels right now. $6200, $6460 and $6650 are key resistance and support levels. If it can get above $6500 then we should test $6650 but ultimately fall from there I think. More likely to visit $6200 first.
Edit: We have rejection from the fib level and $6500. If we were going to go up, there would have been more support at $6460. Next stop is $6200.
Edit: We have rejection from the fib level and $6500. If we were going to go up, there would have been more support at $6460. Next stop is $6200.
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Quintrix
Expert Member
Can somebody please explain how you can trade on Luno without paying any costs if that is possible. And please type SLOW because I have tried to understand that but just don't seem to grasp.
If you are a TAKER, you pay fees. If you are a MAKER, you pay NO* fees. (*On Luno - other exchanges may have different fee structures)
TAKER = somebody that transfer his Rands to Luno and buys Bitcoin from the Order book, from the Bitcoin that is for sale. Or somebody that takes his BTC to Luno and sell it into the existing Order Book, for Rands.
MAKER = somebody that takes his Rands to Luno, and sets a buy order for Bitcoin, below the current Bitcoin price. So his order sits on the Order book, waiting for the Bitcoin price to drop, and his order to be filled. The same for someone wanting to sell their Bitcoin. They will set a price for their Bitcoin, higher than the current price. So when the Bitcoin price goes up (as people actively buy it (TAKERS)), his sell order will be filled.
Remember Luno is a business. If you go to Luno, and there is no order book (no buy and sell orders), the place will look barren, as if there is nothing happening, and people will just leave.
Luno WANTS to have MAKERS, because their orders sit in the order book. So they incentivise people to have Buy and Sell orders sitting in the order book. This incentive is to charge the MAKERS no fees.
TAKERS might just swoop in and buy/sell willy-nilly. So they are the ones that pay fees. Remember Luno makes it's money on the fees it charges these TAKERS.
This is hopefully a simplified explanation? Let me know if anything is unclear.
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