Bitcoin Thread

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Someone just insta-dumped over 2k BTC on Bitfinex which will weaken the $6600 and $6640 support zones. I'm neutral right now. Would be more bullish if it wasn't for that sell zone yesterday in the yellow bubble where several thousand BTC was offloaded in a short space of time.

This spike down to $6500 also must have triggered plenty of stop losses for people going long. Most stops would have been just below $6600. Probably why the price got all the the way down to $6500.


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Seems like it's going to make another attempt through the resistance.

FRFLPo9M


Also notice there's a bit of volume with people buying now on Luno. Not sure why though. Maybe FOMO as the price hasn't retraced for a couple days. This is pretty much the worst area to be buying in the last week or so.
 
Still boring sideways action. Bitfinex is still the one pushing for higher prices and the others aren't following. During that push through the resistance yesterday in the yellow area, Bitfinex was about $20/$30 above the other exchanges. The push failed because the other exchanges didn't join in. Bitfinex is still slightly above right now.

9tPV8GDz


Edit: Bounced again from the support zone. However the other exchanges are still not following so I'm a bit more cautious now. Bought a little but got out again.

moSIelNt


Edit2: These two areas are starting to look similar. Lower highs and a few bounces from the support zone. Could see a bigger drop soon.

3oYmUxQs
 
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So it dropped a little and is stuck right on the fib level of $6610. $6600 is also providing some "round number"support. This is the level that many traders have been waiting for to buy. Yet it's stuck trading at this level for several hours now although there has been volume. Seems a bit to easy/obvious to just buy here and wait for the price to go up. Or maybe I'm just overthinking things. So I'm going to wait and see if there is another drop. There's a lot more support in the $6400 to $6500 area so it's a much safer buy but I might miss out if it goes up from $6600.

uDKitwrO


Made the drop to the zone and seems to be hanging on. $6415 is key support but there is also support at $6380/$6360. So it's a reasonable area to buy. I'm in now again but will be watching closely. Will reconsider if we drop below $6300. Just needs to get above $6500 with some volume to start another wave up.

jjgvz40P
 
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Thoughts for the next few days. Seems like a fractal. As long as $6360 holds it's good. Target around $7050.

o4hWs8rU



Edit: Zoomed in on those two areas. Price action looks very similar. If it's going to pump it's going to happen real soon. At least to around $6560 as a first step.

71XZOXJl
 
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SaiyanZ said:
Thoughts for the next few days. Seems like a fractal. As long as $6360 holds it's good. Target around $7050.
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Yeah - that would be good. A few low-cap altcoins doing some nice moves up, if btc can show some upward movement it'll help keep the momentum going.
 
Defiler said:
I think we'll see a retest of the $6100 level in the next few days before bouncing back up.
Click to expand...

If it does go that low I don't think it will get back above $6400 again in the short term. Any bullish momentum will be lost. We'll also end up with a bearish head and shoulder pattern.

L279Un1G
 
Seems to have some strong support. The last turn at $6380 went back up to $6400 in a few minutes.
 
It's traders on Bitstamp (from which Bitmex gets its futures pricing) that is pushing for lower prices. The volume on there today has been relatively high compared to normal. Dumps seem to have started there as well. Could still be that the futures closing on Friday where much bigger money is involved wants sub $6300 prices which is what I thought a couple weeks ago after the dump from $7400. If that's the case then there's not much chance of a recovery till after Friday.

However there has been plenty of accumulation around $6300/$6400 in the last month. Given the lowish volume at the top above $6700 you'd have to assume that whoever accumulated has not had time to offload and take profit. Unless it's been happening OTC. Then we're screwed once we go sub $6300.

Edit: It's looking weak now so I'm out. Not willing to risk profits made in the last week. Had a wick below the support as well as traded below the fib resistance of $6380 (not just wicks like earlier today). Everything points to a drop to $6300 or below. Next fib support is $6260 so it's a "clear path" to there unless the $6300 support still has some value.

The blue support line could still hold as it just has a wick below, but if I wait to see if it holds the Luno price would have dropped already and I'd be selling at a much lower price.

Boy49kfn
 
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So it seems to have bounced and broken upwards. I got back in again yesterday when it went back to $6380 and bounced and broke above $6415 fib with volume (pink bubble) but there is still a lot to do to get up higher. Resistance at $6460, $6470, $6480 (recent fibs) and then probably also $6500 being a round number.

What fooled yesterday me was the break below $6380 where it traded for two hours in the yellow bubble. Then someone bought the resistance wall and others came in with volume.

kkzFa7I4


Though I'm going to stick to the longer term trend indicator from now and not be too optimistic when it looks this bad. Trend is currently heavily bearish. So as soon as it starts to dump I'm out again. Defense in these times is more important than offense. Whilst I might make a small loss on a trade (1% or so) by getting out too soon, it could easily turn into a 5%/10% loss in no time.

nvRsrPQN


It will also be interesting to see how the USA interest rate hike today affects BTC. Traditionally you'd expect people to sell BTC for USD as the USD should strengthen. Though if trading on Luno the net effect should be zero as ZAR should also weaken vs USD.
 
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So the $6560 fib was just touched. Fairly decent run today though with the weakness shown yesterday I'm not sure how much further it can go so I'm out. Also the Rand has been strengthening again so the Luno price is taking a knock although you can't see it much yet with the move up. If BTC dumps then it will be hit fairly hard.

vASM9iM0


It will also take a fair bit of work to swing the daily trend around to bullish. Needs a close on the daily at $6650+ or sideways around $6600 for a couple days. Will be tough so will rather watch from the sidelines. Just 2 more days till futures closes so at least it's not long to wait to see if something big (dump) is planned.

oAZlhjzt


Edit: BTC really needs to start making higher highs ($7500+) or a new low sub $5600 for volume to pick up again. With these lower highs and higher lows the analysis becomes a mess with fib levels and resistances/supports everywhere so it's not clear which levels are important. This likely causes fewer people to trade. We need a solid new trend.
 
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For now I think we will still go more down. That instant 1000 BTC buy yesterday through the key resistance zone ($6460 to $6500) tells the story. There was no follow through and the price dropped again shortly afterwards. When a pump like that fails it's a sign of a lack of buyers in this price zone.

HWn5VOlQ
 
Also worth noting how long this region has been support / sideways price action. Can see why some are calling this the bottom but I ain't calling anything - just responding to the price whatever it does. Price is closing in and sooner or later it's gonna have to do something to set the trend for the following months.

range.png
 
Yeah price action has been narrowing for the entire year building up to the next few months. I've seen very similar charts where the price dumps hard (like 30%+) after price action like this. Gold and Nikkei from several years ago. So it's wise to be cautious as dropping below $5600 will open the floodgates and getting back above $6000 might take a very long time. Will keep trading the trend and smaller moves as there's always money to be made.


lE9LK0X9
 
Pushing against $6525 fib level. If this fails again it should start dumping hard without a quick recovery.

e45ZN6hm
 
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