Just a reminder that you can paper-trade on Tradingview if you feel like practicing without using money, though obviously it's a different thing when your own money is involved and your emotions start getting involved.
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Bitcoin Thread
- Thread starter Dan C
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
I must test that out sometime.
Just something to watch out for now:
If the price moves sideways/up from $6600 now you could say it's in the neutral zone again. The bigger drops usually have these fake moves up but the price just sticks to a sort of curve and falls again. So if we move up or sideways now you could say the current drop is over as it would break the curve. Otherwise this could be part of a much bigger wave down.
Edit: Still going sideways but making slightly lower highs. Think it might dump given the way it initially started dumping yesterday.
Just something to watch out for now:
If the price moves sideways/up from $6600 now you could say it's in the neutral zone again. The bigger drops usually have these fake moves up but the price just sticks to a sort of curve and falls again. So if we move up or sideways now you could say the current drop is over as it would break the curve. Otherwise this could be part of a much bigger wave down.
Edit: Still going sideways but making slightly lower highs. Think it might dump given the way it initially started dumping yesterday.
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Market is still looking bearish to neutral. Looking back over the last 10 days, there has been steady selling at the highs above $6700. Weakness shown at the $6600 to $6666 supports recently also shows that there's a lack of buyers here now. So the only way to get back up above $6700 right now is with a whale pump like the previous two times. The rounded tops also indicate sort of steady distribution where people are offloading BTC.
So no trade from me here. Even if it does spike to $6750 now, there's a high chance of it just falling immediately like previously. Think BTC needs to go down again to at least $6300 to get more buyers interested. That or BTC needs to get above the shaded area below and stabilize above it for a day. Too many fakeouts recently are making people reluctant to trade in this region. I'm one of them.
Zoomed in: It's bouncing between fib levels. At least there is an attempt.
So no trade from me here. Even if it does spike to $6750 now, there's a high chance of it just falling immediately like previously. Think BTC needs to go down again to at least $6300 to get more buyers interested. That or BTC needs to get above the shaded area below and stabilize above it for a day. Too many fakeouts recently are making people reluctant to trade in this region. I'm one of them.
Zoomed in: It's bouncing between fib levels. At least there is an attempt.
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
The price bounced exactly from the diagonal support again.
It seems to be making an ascending triangle which points to a target of around $7500. This seems just way too obvious though and from my experience over the year, it's never this easy. Might have just bounced because people are anticipating the pattern (making it self-fulfilling for now) but if that diagonal support breaks it should dump instead. I'm going to stay out of the market for now. It's still struggling to even spike above $6666.
It seems to be making an ascending triangle which points to a target of around $7500. This seems just way too obvious though and from my experience over the year, it's never this easy. Might have just bounced because people are anticipating the pattern (making it self-fulfilling for now) but if that diagonal support breaks it should dump instead. I'm going to stay out of the market for now. It's still struggling to even spike above $6666.
Interesting to see you make that $7500 projection - would put the price into a breakout from the long-term pattern and be a potential turning point for the market. Something is going to happen in the next week or two, that price can only wedge in for so long.
Not just closing in but heading upward. Couple with the end of year and people getting bonuses like last year if there's a breakout it could be permanent.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
I just wanted to show what the short term TA says. Your triangle over many months says the opposite on a larger scale. That we should be going down hard soon which I am more inclined to agree with. That's why I'm not trading this short term move right now. There is a bigger pattern in play which might/should override it so it could just be a trap. Will wait for $6800 to break with volume again before considering buying again.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Seems like it's going to dump. I've seen this before where bears target two supports crossing over (at $6560) to kill two birds with one stone.
Edit: Still hanging in there. Interesting candles on the 15m. Shows buyers are coming in here. Though the price won't go up much if there are no buyers at $6666+. Need those whales to come and push otherwise it's destined to fall.
Edit: Still hanging in there. Interesting candles on the 15m. Shows buyers are coming in here. Though the price won't go up much if there are no buyers at $6666+. Need those whales to come and push otherwise it's destined to fall.
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Spoke too soon. There it goes:
$6560 should now be a heavy resistance zone.
Edit: Market is behaving very weirdly. How did it get above the resistance zone (only $10 above) with hardly any volume... Pretty strange behavior to me. The current liquidity must be very low with a thinned out order book for something like his to happen. Odd candle and volume highlighted below:
$6560 should now be a heavy resistance zone.
Edit: Market is behaving very weirdly. How did it get above the resistance zone (only $10 above) with hardly any volume... Pretty strange behavior to me. The current liquidity must be very low with a thinned out order book for something like his to happen. Odd candle and volume highlighted below:
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Yeah I'm also just watching right now. This could go either way, tho a quick down does seem like a possibility. Tick tock, getting close to decision time now. Should be an interesting few weeks.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Something that's also at the back of my mind are the long term holders with a few thousand BTC. Those IT nerds that bought BTC back in 2010. They would have been watching this whole year, waiting for recovery. At some point I think many will throw in the towel and sell. Mainly because if you have enough to retire on, there's no point in risking waiting for higher prices. Someone with 5k BTC can get $30mill at $6k each which is enough to never work again. After this long year, I know it's what I would look to do if I had that much BTC.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Interesting how it's holding on here for so long. Most boring sideways action we've had for a while. It doesn't seem like the lower diagonal support is too important anymore. Went through it a couple times after the first break without any major volume.
The daily trend indicator has a couple dojis which indicate reversal. Only thing is, on a very short scale, we're reversing the recent uptrend from $6328 and $6100. On a longer scale we're still fairly low at $6600. So could go either way right now. Probably best to stay out of it. I'm leaning more towards the short term reversal and going down from here.
The dojis on this indicator seem to work fairly well. Just looking at the last few weeks, each time we had a doji, the price moved a few percent over the next few days. Just purely looking at this and nothing else, it says we should drop a bit.
The daily trend indicator has a couple dojis which indicate reversal. Only thing is, on a very short scale, we're reversing the recent uptrend from $6328 and $6100. On a longer scale we're still fairly low at $6600. So could go either way right now. Probably best to stay out of it. I'm leaning more towards the short term reversal and going down from here.
The dojis on this indicator seem to work fairly well. Just looking at the last few weeks, each time we had a doji, the price moved a few percent over the next few days. Just purely looking at this and nothing else, it says we should drop a bit.
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SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Yeah boring as hell. I've been watching the entire time but my last trade was on Friday. There's a fair amount of support between $6460 and $6480. Triple fib. That would be the area to break for panic to set in and that long red candle.
Please don't moon me.
SaiyanZ
Executive Member
Finally dumped below the stronger support zone. It's current;y trying to push back through but I don't see it happening right now. Went below that zone with solid volume.
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