Bitcoin Thread

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saor said:
Interesting that price has broken out of that long-term wedge. Feels like an odd position to be in right now & it's tricky gauging market sentiment. There's a nagging feeling that the lows this year weren't low enough - that we might see some upside before taking a quick and heavy dip down again. Interesting times. Gonna be fun watching this play out over the next few months.

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Bitfinex isn't the best to look at anymore I think. Bitstamp is probably next best to monitor given its volume. BTC broke out but came back down quickly and is trading well below the trendline there. More importantly the spike yesterday didn't even beat the previous highs in September. It's just another lower high. So until that level breaks (I would say $6830+ would turn things towards bulls favour) on Bitstamp, we're still making lower highs for now.

Bldr0sGj



I'm just going to be scalp trading until a clear move up begins. Then I will hold.


With Tether also close to $1 again it's strange that the exchanges haven't aligned. It means that it's difficult or impossible to transfer BTC to Bitfinex for some reason. With a $300 (5%) difference it should be easy profit. So there is still something not quite right with Bitfinex/Tether I'd say.
 
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Corelli said:
Tether is pegged to the dollar. It will always trade at $1 or there about.
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Yeah it should but people are losing confidence in it with all the FUD. The big move up yesterday on Bitfinex apparently started because people started dumping Tether (because they were afraid it was no longer worth $1) which then also caused a short squeeze.
 
Found a chart with the Tether price which explains Bitfinex current 4% BTC premium. 1 USDT is only worth $0.96 right now. It's the Kraken USDT/USD pair. Poloniex has USDT prices closer to $1 for some reason.

NGZOmPWU


Tether dropped to 85c yesterday morning.

Edit: Also looking at the 1 minute Bitfinex chart, the pump there start only after Tether moved down towards 96c. So yeah this pump was all Tether's doing. Tether slowly lost value over two days until it hit 96c and then tanked whilst BTC pumped.

Edit2: It also means the true price in dollars of Bitcoin can only be taken from USD exchanges like Bitstamp. Whilst Bitfinex shows it's price as though it's in dollars, it's actually in Tethers. So their price now for BTC is 0.96 x $6700 = $6432. i.e. Close to the USD exchanges. So BTC never hit those high prices yesterday in true dollar terms as you have multiply by the Tether price at the time. Doing the math, the price on Bitfinex didn't even go above $6650 at any point yesterday in real dollars.
 
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I've come to the conclusion that this last pump was just a last ditch effort to save BTC from dropping by Bitfinex using Tether issues/devaluation. Based on this I've decided to stay out for now as the implications of it mean that we can go down hard.

What I think happened:

- The break above the triangle a few days ago was a fail and we fell below, all the way through the triangle. (yellow bubble)

- BTC retests the bottom of the triangle and is probably about to start a big trip down based on the quick rejection. Then along comes Bitfinex Tether issues/devaluation and BTC pump exactly on time to save the day. (pink bubble)

- People buy BTC on all exchanges thinking that it's breaking out but it's only just Tether that has devalued so Bitfinex prices look high but in real dollar terms were/are still low.

6MO2HaUs


Once people start realizing what really happened I think we will drop again. Probably best to stay out of the market for now.
 
Yeah I got out as well. Sentiment on Luno also seems to be sell so holding just seems to go against everything. I don't know if people are selling for Black Friday. There seems to be a lot of people wanting cash lately.
 
The link for the Tether chart is:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=KRAKEN:USDTUSD

Tradingview always directs me to Poloniex so I have to replace it with Kraken in the address bar.

68BuLaOA


It's 95c today. Not sure why/how the price can vary so much but this is definitely going to cause issues, not sure how big though.

People who have just been sitting in "cash", holding Tether for the last week on Bitfinex are currently down 5% in real dollars if they try to cash out. Not sure how many realize this and/or know that they've lost money without even doing anything. If it works the way I think, people who are loading funds now on Bitfinex are also getting $100 of Tether for every $95 real USD they load. It's creating a large imbalance between existing traders with funds on the exchange and new money coming in. Which is also why TA using Tether based charts like Bitfinex BTC won't work anymore as new money have a free extra 5% right now to trade with vs old traders.
 
Ignoring the Tether issues, Bitstamp was rejected again last night from $6468 and it's fallen below $6440 again although with low volume. So still no buy yet from me even if Tether was a non-issue.

Me4uf1RV



Edit: Just looking at Bitfinex quickly, it still seems to be reacting to the old fib levels. ($6666, $6730, $6765) Even though the price in real USD is around $300 lower. I guess people have to trade based on something. There is still a lot of support just below but the whole Tether uncertainty is going to create a more bearish outlook.

1Hepe5WC


If Bitfinex pumps, people on other exchanges won't be sure if it's just Tether dropping in value or whether the real USD BTC is increasing. So people are going to be reluctant to trade for now, hampering any potential bullish move, true or not.

Not sure why/how Bitfinex is allowed to use the $ symbol for their BTC prices when the Tether price can vary. It's akin to Luno changing the R to $ and saying the BTC price is $96000 right now. Since Bitfinex is one of the biggest exchanges, something like this will only lead to uncertainty in the market and cause people to distrust the crypto space.

What if Tether dumps again tomorrow to 50c? It was 85c the other day so it can happen. The BTC price on Bitfinex will display as $12000 and people will think we're going to the moon but the price of a BTC will still be $6000 real USD.
 
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More Tether analysis:

Quick comparison of Tether price vs Bitfinex BTC price this year. If anyone was not concerned/aware of the issue, I think this will help realize the seriousness. The Tether devaluations in the past were smaller and didn't last this long. So we're in for something big. Each time in the past BTC dumped afterwards and Tether didn't move as much as it's doing now. The Tether volume has also been massive this week, with higher daily volume vs the whole year.

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Put simply, the Tether volume in the last week is more than the last few months put together. Big money is selling Tether for real USD for some reason. The BTC price hasn't gone up much so I'd say most of it has been converted to real USD and not BTC.

Two things can happen from here:

- Tether goes back to $1 which will make the Bitfinex price drop to be in line with other USD exchanges like Bitstamp. Currently around $6400.
- Tether starts to drop again as people try to get rid of it leading to more panic selling like the other day where it dropped to 85c. This will make the BTC price on Bitfinex spike upwards relatively just like the other day. Though this time it probably won't cause the entire market to increase as people will know it's just Tether devaluing.

Given how this 95c Tether price is holding for a few days now, it seems like the dumping of Tether is happening continuously. So at some stage it's likely to spiral downwards again with panic selling. Thus I think the second scenario is more likely right now. Anyone on Bitfinex should try to cash out or transfer their BTC to another exchange because this could get ugly. Holding BTC in this uncertain time is probably also fairly risky unless you're a long term holder (many years).
 
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Tether just spiked 1.5% but quickly went back down to 96c. No reaction on Bitfinex as yet. If it goes back to $1 we should see Bitfinex BTC price drop a couple hundred dollars to the $6400 region. Might even trigger some selling on the real USD exchanges and everyone goes lower. Same way the pump due to Tether moving the other day pulled everything else up, just the opposite this time.


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So Tether went up 1% to 96.5c, USD BTC price went down 1%, Bitfinex BTC price went down 2%. Everything is in balance.

This is what I see happening on Bitfinex if Tether goes back to $1 today, Drop to around $6300 on Bitfinex. If we go below there then we probably won't be bouncing back soon.

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On Bitstamp the next support is around $6240 if $6350 falls which will probably happen if Bitfinex normalizes:

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I won't be buying at these supports as there are bigger underlying issues right now with Tether. Safest to wait and see how things play out.

Tether gained 1% yesterday. This is the chart to watch (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=KRAKEN:USDTUSD) as any move here is going to influence the Bitfinex price and also possibly spook USD exchanges into selling with all the uncertainty:

SGTc63cR
 
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So not much is happening again. The USD exchanges are flat, still hovering around $6400. Bitfinex price has moved around, bouncing between supports. It slowly dropped yesterday but then found some support at the $6535 fib. So it seems to be respecting the supports/resistances at the moment and the Tether price is adjusting for it so that the real USD price remains around $6400. It was rejected twice today from the heavy resistance zone though:

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It could go up again for another attempt but I don't see any decent move happening right now unless the USD exchanges like Bitstamp start to head a bit higher than $6400.
 
SaiyanZ said:
So Tether went up 1% to 96.5c, USD BTC price went down 1%, Bitfinex BTC price went down 2%. Everything is in balance.
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Thanks for the tether commentary.
Been cool following your posts on it - nice to see not just analysis but the info & opinion too.
 
Cryptocompare shows some heavy volume but barely any movement and a quick rebound. False data?
 
Swa said:
Cryptocompare shows some heavy volume but barely any movement and a quick rebound. False data?
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There was a bit of volume on Bitfinex and Tether was moving around a bit at the same time. Pump came 4 hours afterwards. So people are trying to push upwards and loaded up around $6580 on Bitfinex. You'd normally expect a move up from here ($6610) based on the price action of the last few days like so:

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I'm not interested in trading as yet though with Tether still moving around. It might only get as far as the blue resistance which isn't much of a gain.

Tether being sold off steadily for a few weeks is something to be worried about. Most of it wasn't being used to buy BTC or we would have seen some big volume and an uptrend on Bitfinex before that big spike last week. So large amounts of real USD have probably left the crypto space over the last few weeks, unless for some reason, the same money is being used to buy BTC OTC.

That's why I think we had those large drops in BTC price after the previous Tether selloffs. When real USD leaves the market, everyone is left playing for a piece of a smaller pie, although it's not obvious that the pie is smaller right away because of the way Tether value influences the BTC price.
 
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Bitfinex is still reacting to fib levels which at least means things are not completely random. Not much movement though so hard to really make any money off this. Even the lower fees on Bitfinex would eat up a lot of the profit.

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What's also interesting is that nobody on Tradingview is really focusing on the Tether issue and trying to understand what is going on like I did above. It looks like trading as usual for most. If my theory about large sums of real USD leaving the crypto space is right, the market is in for a major correction, even to $3k levels over the next few months and we might stay sub $6k for a long while, maybe even years.
 
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