Bitcoin Thread

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6k is the cost to mine a bitcoin. Miners will just hold back their coin till they can get their price to cover costs. Supply and demand will pull the price back to 6k, but how long before the "shortage" causes that to happen, who knows.
 
abcab said:
6k is the cost to mine a bitcoin. Miners will just hold back their coin till they can get their price to cover costs. Supply and demand will pull the price back to 6k, but how long before the "shortage" causes that to happen, who knows.
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There is already enough BTC supply in the market. Miners can hold their BTC but it won't create demand. In order to create demand they need to spend more USD to buy up what's out there. Risky business as then they're relying on demand to increase in future. If you were a miner holding 10000 BTC, would you buy another 10000 BTC if the price dropped to $5k? And then if it dropped to $4k would you buy another 10000 BTC? I think people will be more likely to sell now to cut losses, than invest even more and hope for future gains.

Real USD leaving the market will eventually cause the market cap to shrink as that is the foundation. The Tether devaluation for a few weeks (without BTC volume) is a sign of real USD leaving the market and thus too much BTC supply / lack of BTC demand.

Also looking at where most BTC is sitting right now. About 40% of all BTC in existence are in old wallets of long term holders who bought below $1000. Will they hold forever? We don't know but they can sell at $4k if they have to and still take make a huge profit.
 
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There's signs of a bigger drop coming. Multiple head and shoulder patterns on all exchanges over the last couple days. On Bitfinex I expect a drop to around $6475 at least.

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Zoomed in, it bounced exactly from $6535 fib but should fall from around $6560 now:

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Probably still going to break down from here. It's not attacking the upper resistance at $6610 and keeps coming back to $6560. Seems like the USD exchanges are the ones keeping Bitfinex from falling for now. They are holding around $6400 for a week without following any Bitifnex movement strongly.

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Edit: Volume on Bitfinex has picked up today vs the last week. Steady volume instead of spikes and nothing. So something should happen soon.

EQRype52
 
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Just looking a bit more at Tether. The last time we had large Tether moves was in Jan/Feb. Main thing to note here is that the BTC drops in price started after the Tether selloffs/devaluation. From $12k to $9k and then $9k to $6k.

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What we've got now, a much larger Tether move but just a few hundred dollar BTC move afterwards. So I think the market is in for a big shakeup. Large amounts of money has been moved or left the market and we are yet to see the effect.

suuuaRKs
 
Bitfinix still about 2.1% higher than Coinbase. Which is also the same amount by which Tether is devalued. Seems to be slowly recovering. I can't figure out though if Bitstamp is pulling the rest up or if it's being pulled down as Tether recovers. Everything seems to be waiting for waiting for Tether and which exchanges the market will accept.

The problem I have with the idea that Tether will pull the market down is that it's not the same situation this time. Bitcoin crashed in Feb due to being way overvalued. It actually started picking up around this time. Interesting if you held Bitcoin just over a year ago you would have made little if anything.
 
Yeah there were several reasons we dropped earlier in the year. The Tether portion alone is not enough but does raise questions. The only reason Tether would drop like that in Jan/Feb without BTC pumping simultaneously is if real USD left the market (was withdrawn from exchanges). We had a similar situation now before the Tether dump to 85c, just spread out over a longer timespan. The Tether price steadily dropped for about 10 days to 97c before the panic dump to 85c. The steady selloff tells me once again that people were withdrawing their funds from exchanges.

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The price bounced back pretty fast earlier today from the support zone on Bitfinex. If it drops again I think $6415 is going to be the area to watch to see whether we're going up or down. There should be strong support around $6460 to $6480 but I think we will still drop to test $6415. If whales want to get out they will make use of the support areas to fill their orders and then $6460/$6480 will become the new resistance.

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Looking back it also fits in with how the USD exchanges are hovering around the $6415 mark for a whole week now. The $6415 fib is drawn from when Tether was still 1:1 vs the USD and goes back a couple months.
 
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I'm seeing some potential for an upwards break here. In around 3 hours from now (10pm our time) a few resistances will align and cross. If whales want to take the price up this is a good opportunity as their orders get filled more easily at the resistance levels. Plus it bounced cleanly from $6535 (although it is still very close).

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Looks like they decided to take the next node up. Key zone to break is $6600 to $6620 but will be tough. For now, as long as there is some fight to stay above $6557 and $6535 then it's only a matter of time before the next move up. I'm back in after almost two weeks of just watching and holding for now.

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There was also some selling earlier on Luno. I think it was just people with lots of BTC cashing out to pay their tax. Rand is weak/weakening and USD BTC prices hadn't done much before the pump.
 
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So that deteriorated quickly. I got scared and sold as I was already in some profit. The way I see it, as long as you're not losing money in these dead times, it's a winning trade. So any profit is a bonus. Below $6535 is the danger zone and we spent a fair bit of time there although we're back above again. Possibly just temporarily relief as the key levels ($6557 fib, $6535 fib, $6525 diagonal support) were broken below easily after the morning pump.

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There's some big buy wall on Luno so the ZAR price held while the USD levels dipped so I got out without fees.
 
108 buy wall on luno atm... haven't seen it that high in months(not saying it hasn't been, but max I've personally seen has been like 75 or so)
 
Temujin said:
108 buy wall on luno atm... haven't seen it that high in months(not saying it hasn't been, but max I've personally seen has been like 75 or so)
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Daily volume is still low so the big wall is not necessarily a good thing. If the price drops, the big buy wall will turn into a big sell wall because of all the people that loaded up at this price.

Think there's a high chance of the price breaking through supports like this. Another convergence zone:

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Hopefully that sell wall is finally falling. Buy wall still higher than yesterday. 6:1
 
Tether volume has picked up massively in the last day. Not sure what it means. About as much or more volume as when the price dropped to 85c. There seems to be a wall at 99c though.

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Looking at the 1 minute chart, most of the volume is from active buyers. So could be two things I think. People speculating on Tether price or people loading up on Tether to buy BTC. Or both.

KBwOHah0
 
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No movement. Hope things liven up again because cash/crypto sitting idle on exchanges is wasting away potential returns. Can instead just put the cash away in a fixed deposit and get around 1% a month. So my goal is to make at least 2% of entire capital every month as a bare minimum. These last few weeks have been quite dead without much opportunity to trade.
 
My concern is more with how Luno isn't moving and just building up these big walls. Someone's been selling BTC sub 0.01 in hundreds of transactions per day for weeks now.
 
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