Bitcoin Thread

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delta66 said:
what about ZAR weakness...arbitrage on various exchanges
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Looks like there's an opportunity today to buy elsewhere and sell on Luno. Rand is still strengthening.

I've never dabbled in arbitrage though. Large international cash transfers from a bank account will probably get oneself on SARS target list. I prefer to keep my crypto related activities solely on exchanges.
 
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Back to Bitstamp charts, not much has happened. There is heavy resistance from $6375 all the way to $6500 as the price consolidated in that zone for two weeks before dropping below. For a bullish wave, it needs to break above $6500, come back and retest it, and then start moving up. That will be the buy and hold signal.

For now I'm just watching. Much easier to fall from the current position than go up.

ALEhsC1u


Edit: Zoomed in it looks like a bearish wedge and it's just below resistance. So usually this would drop to around the middle of the wedge to around $6260/$6270. Though these wedges are more reliable after an uptrend as they are reversal patterns.

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There's something odd going on with the shorts in the last month on Bitfinex. Usually the BTC price moves in the general opposite direction of the number of BTC shorts. The last month the BTC price has been flat though whilst shorts have gone up and down a fair amount. Also in the last couple weeks, shorts have gone down and the BTC price has gone down a little in the same period.

My interpretation is that normally short coverage pushes the price up as people need to buy BTC to close their positions. Even with the buying to close shorts in the last couple weeks, the BTC price has still fallen/remained flat. So there is a hidden weakness in the BTC price right now. Closing of shorts is what helped push up the BTC price in the past as you can see in the graph. Without that happening now, the market will need something else to push the price up.

4OaERWYc
 
There's big selling happening on Bitfinex right now. They're trying to get through this support. Hidden buy order is holding it for now at $6338.5.


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Edit: I don't see that support holding in the next day. Usually these hidden orders are targeted so there will be a drop and retest. The same thing happened at $6320 but it bounced back quickly after breaking below. The reason why it held for now is because the USD exchanges weren't responding and didn't also drop.

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Bitfinix trading at the average now and USDT recovering.
 
How do you see the number of BTC shorts? (and cfd's)
 
Not too much happening today. Based on previous moves, I think we might eventually go down to touch the purple line at some point. The longer it takes, the lower it will go.

01s8aLKf



The slope is not that extreme on Bitstamp:

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Shorts are still falling quite fast as well, yet we're not seeing the increase in the Bitifnex BTC price. 10k BTC has been bought on Bitfinex in the last few days to close shorts. Price hasn't moved much which is bearish in my opinion as it shows lack of real buyers and still lots of selling to these short closings.

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Registered on Bitfinex tonight to gain more knowledge and learn more from other trading platforms but what's up with the $10 000 before you can trade and use the functions. Sucks...
 
Not sure where all this new money is coming from on Luno in the last week. Lots of eager buyers and big buy walls for days for no apparent reason. I'm staying far away now and just watching. Luno is going to be a train wreck if/when the USD price drops with its low volume and thin order book, given how many people have bought around R95k/R96k. There will be a tidal wave of sellers which will make the price take a while to recover. So it's extremely high risk buying now on Luno in my view.

My strategy is to never buy at the same price where a lot of people are buying. Since if/when it drops there's suddenly way too many fighting to get out and thus the price will dump a lot harder and longer than it should. Better to miss out on scraping a percent return in these dead times than be caught up in that.
 
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So price broke out a little. Not much. My guess is a lot of sideways in the next month. Especially with shorts so low, there's very little chance of a big move up with a short squeeze.

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Edit: On Luno though, the Rand is a bigger concern right now. R14 has been breached and I've seen forecasts of R13.50 by Monday.
 
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SaiyanZ said:
On Luno though, the Rand is a bigger concern right now. R14 has been breached and I've seen forecasts of R13.50 by Monday.
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Don't understand it though. There isn't enough good news and some or other official is bound to open their mouth in the next week dropping it back to over R14.50.
 
Swa said:
Don't understand it though. There isn't enough good news and some or other official is bound to open their mouth in the next week dropping it back to over R14.50.
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Where are you seeing this R14.50?
 
The price needs to move up in the next couple hours or it will break below the channel triggering more selling. Best chance for $6600/$6700 is a move up now. Can still bounce from lower down but it's unlikely to get too far up past $6500 if it falls below $6375 now.

The shaded region is very important. If it does dip into it, we need to see lots of buying in there to keep the bullish view.

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Bitfinex looks a bit more bearish as it looks a bit like a wedge and has broken below and is retesting it now:

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