Bitcoin Thread

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SaiyanZ said:
Not sure where all this new money is coming from on Luno in the last week. Lots of eager buyers and big buy walls for days for no apparent reason. I'm staying far away now and just watching. Luno is going to be a train wreck if/when the USD price drops with its low volume and thin order book, given how many people have bought around R95k/R96k. There will be a tidal wave of sellers which will make the price take a while to recover. So it's extremely high risk buying now on Luno in my view.

My strategy is to never buy at the same price where a lot of people are buying. Since if/when it drops there's suddenly way too many fighting to get out and thus the price will dump a lot harder and longer than it should. Better to miss out on scraping a percent return in these dead times than be caught up in that.
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This has come true on Luno. Big buy walls have turned into big sell walls. Mostly due to the Rand but now there are too many people who are fighting to get out because too many people have got in at the same price. Will probably take another day to normalize unless the USD BTC price pumps soon. Unexplainable buying turns into unexplainable selling making it difficult for traders to time the tops and bottoms.
 
Price on Bitstamp broke downwards out of the channel after holding for most of the day. I had bought yesterday but got out again now at a loss as it's hard to tell how far this can go. I think most likely to somewhere on that purple line in the next couple days.

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Bitfinex seems to want to try and make a parallel channel. Don't think it will though. If Bitfinex falls this low then the other exchanges will go even lower. So it's more likely that whenever Bitstamp bounces above, we'd see the same from Bitfinex.


wrGRMbhb
 
Luno is a real **** show these last couple weeks. Got newbs or idiots trading there with lots of cash recently who are always chasing the price. Makes it very unpredictable when people buy and sell randomly. Hopefully they lose enough money and go away soon because with all the sideways and fees they're definitely not profiting.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Got newbs or idiots trading there with lots of cash recently who are always chasing the price. Makes it very unpredictable when people buy and sell randomly.
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Heh - sounds like altcoin trading.
 
saor said:
Heh - sounds like altcoin trading.
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Yeah it's quite bad but unlikely to be permanent. I'm guessing it's people who have got their year end bonuses or tax refunds and are gambling it away.

December and January should be interesting. People will get their bonuses in December so there may be a bit more of a bullish trend. Then in January everyone's annual international cash transfer limit will reset, in countries around the world. So there should a lot more arbitrage going on and that would be bearish as arbitragers mostly just want to increase fiat and not hold crypto long term. Assuming that there's not something major that comes along.
 
Broke below $6375 and $6350 on Bitstamp now. $6350 was a major support for a lot of the last month. If it doesn't get back above in the next few hours, it's a pretty bad sign. If it does hover below for a while, even though there might be a bounce from the purple line, it will ultimately fall again from $6350/$6375.

qT9B75CN
 
This bot selling on Luno. Once watched it take an entire 10BTC. Must have sold hundreds in the last couple of weeks. Pushes the price lower. It must be allowed to go higher so buyers get satisfied and cool down, then come back down to satisfy the sellers. Sitting too long in one spot and then of course the stability lately doesn't make it better with sellers and buyers then accumulating.
 
Tether lost a little bit of value in the last couple days. So Bitfinex price is back to around $100 higher. Wonder how the non-Tether exchanges will react this time if Tether dumps big again.

FEQcSOat
 
Can finally see why Luno has been a **** show recently. There's one person trying to buy like 50 BTC. Maybe even more. Might be new money or someone who came over from Bitfinex too. Lets see how long they last on Luno when it takes an entire weekend for those big orders to get filled and at a crap price.
 
I don't even consider Luno to be a place to trade. I only use it to move profit and earnings to my FIAT account.
 
What we need is a 10%+ dump to make people lose money so that they actually think about what they're doing. Exchange to come back to normal after that. We've had too much sideways for a few months now making people feel a bit too safe.

Edit: Zooming out a bit, there hasn't been any major movement for over two months, since the start of September. So it doesn't seem too bad missing out on a small move now when looking at the big picture. Just need one big move to wipe out or make up a months worth of day trading.

f4bUkMyl
 
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Still trying to figure out who the seller or sellers are. Either a big etailer like Raru, some big dodgy under the radar operation, a whale that's cashing out, or Luno itself to cover their taxes.

EDIT: Or it's @Thor that figured out there isn't going to be a moon.
 
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Swa said:
Still trying to figure out who the seller or sellers are. Either a big etailer like Raru, some big dodgy under the radar operation, a whale that's cashing out, or Luno itself to cover their taxes.

EDIT: Or it's @Thor that figured out there isn't going to be a moon.
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People will sell if they think the price is going to go more down. The influx of buyers on Luno recently is the more confusing part. I know there's at least one person putting down like R5m. Either new money or someone that sold a long time ago and is getting back in. To do it on Luno though is surprising when big orders can be filled much more faster on other exchanges. Trying to trade even just 10BTC on Luno takes forever if you want to avoid fees. At that stage I'd dabble in some leveraged trading on Bitmex or just store most offline and hold.

Think that's my plan now anyway. Once I have enough BTC profits, I'll move some to Bitmex and try my hand at some leveraged trading. Then profits from that and Luno will be stored offline.
 
I think it will drop a bit today. Then either fall more or break upwards on Wednesday. The shaded region should have been strong support once we broke above. It was not and now we're below $6375 so it becomes heavy resistance again. So I'm more in favour of the fall to around $6100.

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Luno is a problem with its minimum pairing options, and the only way to move funds from luno to any other exchange is in coin. So you have to buy your btc first to get it to your trading exhange of choice.
 
abcab said:
So you have to buy your btc first to get it to your trading exhange of choice.
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If your trading goes well you'll make that difference back in no time. If your trading is so bad as to be unable to make back that difference, you're probably not making any real profit in any case. I don't mean you specifically, I'm just saying I don't think it's that big a deal generally. Pay a local premium, shift it to another exchange and work to make back that loss & then you're in profit after that.
 
Agree with you. My real point is that I would not use Luno as a trading platform, its just too limited. But Luno stays our best option to move between crypto and FIAT.
 
Threaded through like a needle but bounced a quickly although there should still be more selling today. I think the reason why these convergence supports and resistances are attacked often is to get decent volume. If someone want's to sell a few thousand BTC then doing it in an area with lots of support is where it will most likely happen. Same for when going up. Also if whales want to manipulate the price and create a bearish view, they can break below two supports in one attack.

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Bounced back up but with extremely low volume. So it's more likely just whales who pushed up the price to offload higher. Pump it up with 500 BTC and slowly sell 5000 BTC at a higher price whilst others FOMO. Also the price rarely pumps immediately after that sort of curved selloff just below $6375 which we had on the 10th and 11th. So I expect more down.


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Luno price went up a little because of the Rand and more so because of the eager big buyers. To put things in perspective, I haven't seen people putting down big orders like this and chasing the price on Luno since March/April.
 
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So the resistance at $6375 proved to be too much as expected. Price is just hanging onto the support line now. Seems like just a matter of time before it breaks lower.

SdmsktED


Tether is also moving again. Has lost a percent in the last day which is why the Bitfinex price hasn't dropped much. The gap between the exchanges has just increased. This is not good for the market as it just creates uncertainty and doubt.

4T9Aaomp
 
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