Bitcoin Thread

[SaiyanZ]

Seems like another triangle which should push the price back to $3900.

Edit: Bullish pattern fail. I got out after we broke below the triangle. Will probably fall a bit more. If it goes up it will likely fall again from the bottom of the triangle.

 

[balrog]

My gut-feel/guesstimate is bottom $3200 or $2800.... Keeping some fiat ready to buy around there. And some spare in case it goes to $1000 - lol!

 

[SaiyanZ]

Luno is a bit too optimistic today. Lots of irrational buyers just like yesterday before "buy buy buy" turned into "sell sell sell"

 

[phly]

I have a 2900 mark should we break the last low of like 3400. Everything is playing out just as expected. Luckily I too just closed my position before the mega drop. Had I delayed my account would be zero. Sometimes one has to be surgical and precise with the decisions they make.

 

[Tweebeenvis]

So $3200 and $2800 is all good, but what are we looking at on luno with difference in price and volume? R45k to 48k?

 

[phly]

I love TA ... it's like magic

Edit: should have seen when happened the first time that trendline was touched and thrown in a blind long.

 

[Temujin]

I love TA ... it's like magic

Edit: should have seen when happened the first time that trendline was touched and thrown in a blind long.
View attachment 583910

 

[SaiyanZ]

I would have liked another 5 minutes at the bottom to accumulate more as people panicked. This one bounced too fast before people had time to sell on Luno. So didn't make as much as I could have from the move. Only around 0.5%.

 

[Swa]

Luno overbuying again. Plenty of people going to get burned again.

 

[Tweebeenvis]

So $3200 and $2800 is all good, but what are we looking at on luno with difference in price and volume? R45k to 48k?

Any thoughts guys? xD Even ETH starting to look good at R1500

 

[SaiyanZ]

Luno overbuying again. Plenty of people going to get burned again.

The big buy at R54300 was me... Price is back above the sort of accumulation zone and the recent action in the bubble. So small chance of dropping right away. More likely to go sideways or up from here. Below $3630 I'd start to become bearish again.

 

[Swa]

The big buy at R54300 was me... Price is back above the sort of accumulation zone and the recent action in the bubble. So small chance of dropping right away. More likely to go sideways or up from here. Below $3630 I'd start to become bearish again.

Nah this was way above that. Even when the price was heading back to $3700 I still saw people buying up to R55k. Turns out I was right about Luno dropping again and taking my order at R53505.

 

[Swa]

Now I just need for this action to continue for another week or so then it can take off for R500k.

 

[SaiyanZ]

The Rand just weakened by 1% so some free gains for Luno traders/holders. Don't think many have seen this as yet. Though 1% isn't that much these days. Just an extra R500 on the price.

The accumulation price seems to be $3610. Very apparent on the 15m chart. Anything below is being bought up very quickly now.

 

[Swa]

Yeah it's been trading between R13.80 and R13.90 for the last two days. Luno is usually slow to react to the exchange rate unless it's a big jump so any changes are cancelled out between other trades.

This is a bad area to sell. If it goes below $3700 Luno is quick to start selling off below normal price but it usually bounces back towards $3700 pretty quickly and then there's a big pump on Luno. Just putting that out there for any traders that if you decide to sell after this you'll likely lose.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Did OK with my test Bitmex account. 6x BTC with a few trades. Going to study the fee structure tonight and move 1 BTC to my real account.

My plan is to do 0.1 BTC trades with 100x leverage. So like trading 10BTC at a time which means a 1% move after fees will double the 0.1 BTC. Shouldn't be too difficult to achieve.



I also realized why I couldn't short the other day. The Mark Price on the test account is very different from the current contract prices. So trying to take a short position at $3600 would cause immediate liquidation. Mark Price now = $3720 vs contract price of $3600. This is not the case on the real exchange as both prices are usually quite close.

Edit: Make that 3340% profit:

 

[John Tempus]

Did OK with my test Bitmex account. 6x BTC with a few trades. Going to study the fee structure tonight and move 1 BTC to my real account.

My plan is to do 0.1 BTC trades with 100x leverage. So like trading 10BTC at a time which means a 1% move after fees will double the 0.1 BTC. Shouldn't be too difficult to achieve.

View attachment 584226

I also realized why I couldn't short the other day. The Mark Price on the test account is very different from the current contract prices. So trying to take a short position at $3600 would cause immediate liquidation. Mark Price now = $3720 vs contract price of $3600. This is not the case on the real exchange as both prices are usually quite close.

Edit: Make that 3340% profit:

View attachment 584240

Thats just demo, take those results with crates of salt. First thing you will notice with demo vs real is the execution speed and accuracy involving slippage is worlds apart.

On the demo you have near exact if not exact execution with close to 0% slippage however on closing positions with real account its entirely different.

Finally it is easy to forget on 100x leverage a 1% losing direction will liquidate such a small real balance near instantly. In current market conditions I wouldnt suggest anything higher than 20x leverage, maybe 50x if you feel you got the killer instinct but 100x is just going to have you flip burgers in no time.

 

[phly]

Ooh see the battered bulls brazenly show off in broad daylight.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Thats just demo, take those results with crates of salt. First thing you will notice with demo vs real is the execution speed and accuracy involving slippage is worlds apart.

On the demo you have near exact if not exact execution with close to 0% slippage however on closing positions with real account its entirely different.

Finally it is easy to forget on 100x leverage a 1% losing direction will liquidate such a small real balance near instantly. In current market conditions I wouldnt suggest anything higher than 20x leverage, maybe 50x if you feel you got the killer instinct but 100x is just going to have you flip burgers in no time.

Yeah I'm just testing to check how the fees and liquidation limits work etc. and throwing in the full balance each time. Won't be doing that on the real exchange. My strategy will be trading 0.1 BTC per trade or 5% of my total balance, whichever is higher. 100x leverage is going to be too risky as the liquidation price is too close for comfort. Will go 25x or 50x.

When opening orders, I'll follow my usual strategy of waiting for certain price levels. So will be a maker and not chase the price. When closing positions I may have to chase but will place orders first.

Up to over 8000% on the test account now.

 

[SaiyanZ]

Bistamp is doing well. The main areas to break are the two shaded areas with heavy resistance. Might not have enough steam left after this 10% move so needs a cool-off period without sliding back down I'd say.

Bitfinex has support just below which could hold it here.