Bitcoin Thread

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Looks like this flag is ready to pop. Expect around a $200 move up to $4200. The previous time it failed though.

icXNaLKA


Edit: $4200 hit. I don't think that it will be able to go much further right now. So will look to sell here. $4000 should be a strong support zone if it falls so we might have some sideways here. $4000 - $4200. If $4000 falls I don't see it breaking below $3750 easily.

cTNG1Dza
 
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My thoughts now. We need to go back down a bit after this run as $4200 - $4400 will be too tough to attempt right away. Possible bounce from $4000 or $3800.

nV158ikB
 
Something's happening to the Rand fast. Which means Luno dump tonight if it closes around there. I can see some arbitrage bots already selling small amounts.

hdMYJ0Ue
 
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That was quite a surprise. 3rd decent move up in a day and also past the trendline from when we first started dropping. I sold a little lower so I'm going to wait it out for a day or so and see what happens here. Prefer to hold but I'm not going to FOMO in after such a run.

Vma8HlPF


Shorts on Bitfinex are interesting. These moves up are not really scaring shorts into closing as yet. Most of the recent shorts were opened between $4000 and $3700. Yet the price is now $4400 and people aren't closing or getting squeezed as yet.

UdX5dEZa
 
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Something that doesn't make much sense right now is the Luno price. In the last 24 hrs Bitstamp went up 4.25% ($4000 - $4170). Luno went up 6.35% (R58000 - R61688). Looking at the stable prices after the first move up as the starting point. So an extra 2.1% more.

Also the Rand strengthened by 1.45% (R13.94 - R13.74). So if prices obeyed the math the Luno price should be around 3.5% lower now. R61688 x 96.5% = R59528.

So yeah pretty odd to me why it slipped so much upwards.:unsure: Currently there's an extra R2k on the price that can't be explained by USD BTC market movements. Normally there would be some random movement but not this much. More than half of the move up from R58000 is unexplained.
 
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SaiyanZ said:
Something that doesn't make much sense right now is the Luno price. In the last 24 hrs Bitstamp went up 4.25% ($4000 - $4170). Luno went up 6.35% (R58000 - R61688). Looking at the stable prices after the first move up as the starting point. So an extra 2.1% more.

Also the Rand strengthened by 1.45% (R13.94 - R13.74). So if prices obeyed the math the Luno price should be around 3.5% lower now. R61688 x 96.5% = R59528.

So yeah pretty odd to me why it slipped so much upwards.:unsure: Currently there's an extra R2k on the price that can't be explained by USD BTC market movements. Normally there would be some random movement but not this much. More than half of the move up from R58000 is unexplained.
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Saiyan, it's been like that for ages. I don't bother trying to figure it out, we do however enjoy up to 15% increases when we pull our mined coin through Luno into FIAT, to pay expenses.
 
I think what happens is a big sell wall for example will destroy the Luno price for a bit (Currently there is like 38btc while the price has gone up 2% internationally that then after this moves, the market goes a bit haywire.

But Luno is definately special.
 
4cer said:
I think what happens is a big sell wall for example will destroy the Luno price for a bit (Currently there is like 38btc while the price has gone up 2% internationally that then after this moves, the market goes a bit haywire.

But Luno is definately special.
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It's because of the Rand strengthening vs the Dollar. R13.64 now, lowest level in almost 4 months. Luno also seems to have some large traders who mainly focus on the forex changes. Might be purely arbitragers, buying cheap elsewhere and dumping on Luno.

It would mean the price will slide a bit later today even if we stay around $4200. As there's too much supply all of a sudden on Luno and arbitragers generally don't get back in. Eventually we will run of of buyers at this price and the sell walls will build up.
 
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Shorts on Bitfinex went up another 2k with this move. Normally the BTC price and shorts move in opposite directions as shorts get squeezed/closed as we go up.

3aM17XkA


So two scenarios here:
- These new shorters (smart shorts) are pretty sure of themselves and know what is going to happen. i.e. drop big.
- They're just retail traders shorting again (more fodder for a squeeze). Though I think most of these retail guys would have shorted already by now and be low on funds.

So first scenario is more likely in my view.
 
SaiyanZ said:
Shorts on Bitfinex went up another 2k with this move. Normally the BTC price and shorts move in opposite directions as shorts get squeezed/closed as we go up.

3aM17XkA


So two scenarios here:
- These new shorters (smart shorts) are pretty sure of themselves and know what is going to happen. i.e. drop big.
- They're just retail traders shorting again (more fodder for a squeeze). Though I think most of these retail guys would have shorted already by now and be low on funds.

So first scenario is more likely in my view.
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I think looking at the shorts if we start going to far up we will see a proper knock on effect. I think there are a few guys sitting with massive losses but have not closed out yet in the hope it still drops back down, as we haven't seen shorts closing like they usually did on increases.
 
Price also hit a fib (4376). I think anyone trading this and going short does not see the likely hood price shooting up to 5.3k range so they can be confident that it will drop before liquidation comes
www.tradingview.png
 
The aim might be to kill shorts before going down again as it makes it easier to fall hard with fewer active shorts. Shorts are still holding strong, not a fear in the world. The only way these numbers will drop is by pumping up further to $4500+ or dropping below $3500. Anywhere in-between is a stalemate.

1k4u83MJ


Edit: BTC seems to have formed a large wedge. If this breaks the target is around $3900.

qEESlDo7
 
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abcab said:
Saiyan, it's been like that for ages. I don't bother trying to figure it out, we do however enjoy up to 15% increases when we pull our mined coin through Luno into FIAT, to pay expenses.
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It's usually around 4% but lately it's been more like R3000-4000 resulting in like an 6% premium this afternoon. Sellers were plenty but buyers just kept taking it all up. My only explanation is nobody is trusting the good exchange rate and expect the Rand to slide again. I don't know why arbitrage didn't pick it up though.
 
It seems to be getting rejected from that red resistance but just keeps going. This is another wedge below the bigger wedge so I think it should still fall more soon.

451g1c5b


It also will make a head shoulder pattern here if it goes back to $4120. Purple drawing. Target for that is $3840 which looks like it will be a good support area. So all bearish signals right now.

OdqIG1j8


Edit: The small wedge already hit its target. There's also potential to make a triangle here like so but the fall is inevitable I think.

LzVmUQpC
 
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Target almost hit. Head and shoulder was strong enough. With Bitfinex hovering just above $4000, I think it will break as well, so I expect one more wave down soon.

cAPvZVlI
 
Target roughly hit. I'm back in again now with another Bitcoin in the bag. This one is destined for Bitmex to start the real trading next week. BTC could still drop more but after this large drop there are too many buyers coming in on Luno and the sell order book is getting too thinned out.

0OFEXRHt
 
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