Ockie
Resident Lead Bender
Bombardier extends flight testing for CSeries by 6 months
Damn.
MONTREAL — Bombardier Inc. received permission from Canadian regulators to extend its CSeries flight-test program by about six months to May 2015, documents show.
The amended schedule, oddly dated Aug. 22, 2013, or this Thursday, also implicitly appears to assume that the CSeries airliner’s maiden flight will come within the next 11 days, as flight coverage begins this month.
And an analyst wrote in a note to clients Monday that he believes a delay for entry into service of the aircraft to 2015 is “inevitable.”
The CSeries’ inaugural flight has been pushed back three times and is expected any day now.
But entry into service promised to airlines would be significantly affected by a longer flight-test program. Bombardier has consistently said that EIS, as it’s commonly known, will be roughly one year after the start of the flight-test program, now imminent.
Bombardier spokesperson Marc Duchesne said that the extension to May 2015 includes the flight-test program for the CS300, the 130-seat variant of the CS100 110-seat aircraft that will fly soon. That larger aircraft’s development is in its initial stages, and is due out roughly one year after the CS100.
“Plus we keep buffer for additional flight testing that will be ongoing even after EIS,” Duchesne added.
Bombardier recently performed high-power and reverse-thrust engine tests and low-speed taxiing exercises of the CS100 flight-test vehicle at Mirabel, one of the last tests before going on to high-speed taxi runs and, after that, first flight.(You can see the company’s low-speed taxiing video at http://cseries.com/ftv1s-need-for-speed) Nav Canada spokesperson John Morris said he could “not deny or confirm anything.”
“It’s Bombardier’s business and I’ll leave it to them to comment — we’re not going to. That sort of document is confidential anyway.”
Morris and Duchesne could not say why the document is dated Aug. 22.
Nav Canada is Canada’s air-traffic control manager, and also trains ATC from foreign countries. It gave Bombardier the all-clear for the extension, giving highly precise airspace navigational co-ordinates from Mirabel within which Bombardier is allowed to test the CSeries.
A Nav Canada/Transport Canada document titled AIP Canada Supplement (AIP stands for aeronautical information publication) 41/13 replaces 17/13, dated May 2, which had set the flight-test program from May 2013 to November 2014. The latest version dated Aug. 22 allows the certification program to run from August 2013 until May 2015.
In a report, analyst Cameron Doerksen of Montreal’s National Bank Financial made no reference to the Transport Canada/Nav Canada documents, but noted that he also expects “EIS to be pushed to early 2015.”
“Given Bombardier’s inability to correctly predict the timing of first flight, we think it is inevitable that the already aggressive flight-test program will take more than a year and that EIS will be pushed to the right.”
He estimated, however, that the financial consequences of the delay “will not be overly material.” In fact, such overruns could even affect Bombardier margins — and shares — positively in 2014, he argued, given that first deliveries in 2015 would typically come at the cost of “negative margins.”
Bombardier’s stock will get a tonic from first flight, Doerksen believes, but that will be almost immediately mitigated by “investors (who) are likely to shift their focus to the risks associated with the flight test program itself and potential delays to EIS, as well as the lack of recent orders for the CSeries.”
He contended that the first flights of the CSeries test vehicles will validate Bombardier’s claims of sharp cuts in fuel consumption, toxic gas emissions and noise that “importantly, ... can be used as a marketing tool in sales campaigns.”
Transport Canada could not immediately comment.
Damn.







