CapeXit 2

Poll is for all in South Africa -

  • Do you believe W/Cape secession from the Republic is feasible ?

    Votes: 28 34.1%

  • Would you support a bid for W/Cape to secede from the Republic ?

    Votes: 33 40.2%

  • In the event of secession being successful, would you consider migrating to W/Cape ?

    Votes: 23 28.0%

  • In the event of secession being successful, would you consider migrating out of W/Cape ?

    Votes: 3 3.7%

  • Would you support other provinces bids for secession ?

    Votes: 20 24.4%

  • I disagree to all questions

    Votes: 35 42.7%

  • Would you support a "Swiss Canton" style of governance for the Republic ?

    Votes: 24 29.3%
  • Total voters
    82
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Grant said:
more importantly, was his assessment of economic viability correct ?
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I'd have to perform a comparative analysis using both cases.

Until I have the data for that, I wuold lean in the direction of Craig, CIP and CapeXit. Part of that is from Rasool proving himself to be unreliable on which Democracy he advocates i.e. the unlimited-by-a-bill-of-rights variety.

The CI people also have the green light from well-known economist Russell Lamberti. Who I have read for over a decade.

p.s. Another thing is that the world has the results from pursuing a Marxist economic policy. It is human misery on a mass scale. From a practical point of view if you stop implementing the formula for mass poverty, and let people help themselves by being free to choose, the economy would begin to recover. Of that I have no doubt, and all the economic indices indicate that to be the case already. Less government intervention = more prosperity.
 
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Request to ChatGPT:

I want a guesstimate study result from you regarding when you think it first most possible (so not expecting probable or definite) for the CIM Western Cape (WC) secession group of movements to hold a provincially based referendum on WC independence?

You'll find in your research that there are many stumbling blocks, such as a lack of strong will to go this route (despite a regular good polling result) , a lack of funds, a clever manipulation of semi-good politicing by the ruling party and their semi-partner the government, and a lack of strong emergency despite the deep pit being dug in the SA political and economic climate generally.

Also, like with most modern conditions, there's the excessive Socialism influence at play, especially from the preferred BRICS membership chosen by such government.

This won't be used as any kind of ammunition, it's merely a thought exercise for our general-topic forum. Include any disclaimers deemed necessary by all means.



Answer:



Below is a reasoned “guesstimate” scenario study, not a prediction. It combines polling trends, constitutional realities, party politics, and movement capacity. I’ll keep the tone neutral so it can be posted in a general-discussion forum.

Earliest Plausible Timing for a Western Cape Independence Referendum​

(Thought-exercise estimate based on current trends)

Key disclaimer​

  • This is not a prediction or endorsement of the idea.
  • It is simply a scenario estimate of the earliest plausible moment when a referendum could be attempted, not necessarily succeed.
  • Political conditions can change suddenly, so timelines could shift dramatically.
The movement most associated with the idea is the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG), along with allied political actors such as the Referendum Party.

Current baseline conditions (2025–2026)​

1. Public support exists but is unstable​

Recent polling commissioned by CIAG shows:

  • ~51% support holding a referendum
  • ~43% support independence itself (Cape Independence)
This is important because movements typically first achieve “referendum legitimacy” before independence support.

However:

  • Support has fluctuated in past surveys.
  • It depends heavily on perceptions of South Africa’s direction.

2. The biggest obstacle: political authority​

Under the South African system:

  • A referendum must be called by the President or a provincial premier.
  • Neither the governing party nor the Western Cape government currently supports independence. (The Citizen)
Key actors:

  • Cyril Ramaphosa – national authority to call a referendum
  • Alan Winde – Western Cape premier
Without one of them agreeing, the movement cannot legally trigger a referendum.

3. Electoral leverage is still weak​

The independence movement currently relies on:

  • pressure on the Democratic Alliance
  • minor pro-independence parties
But the DA’s position historically has been:

  • Opposed to independence
  • Open to autonomy discussions, not secession
Therefore the movement must first influence DA internal politics before any referendum becomes realistic.

4. Financial and organizational limits​

Compared with historical independence movements (e.g., Scotland or Catalonia), the Cape independence movement currently has:

  • small political infrastructure
  • limited fundraising
  • limited international lobbying
This slows progress considerably.

The typical independence pathway (international comparison)​

Most independence referendums follow a five-stage progression:

  1. Fringe idea stage
  2. Regular polling support
  3. Political party adoption
  4. Regional government endorsement
  5. Referendum
The Western Cape movement is currently somewhere between Stage 2 and early Stage 3.

Scenario timeline estimate​

Scenario A – Slow evolution (most realistic)​

If current trends continue gradually:

2026–2029

  • Continued polling around 40–50%
  • Growth of pro-referendum parties
  • Increased debate about provincial autonomy
2030–2034

  • Possible DA internal split or policy shift
  • Coalition politics increases leverage
  • Referendum demand becomes mainstream
Earliest plausible referendum attempt:
~2032–2035

This assumes political pressure inside the Western Cape government eventually forces the issue.

Scenario B – Crisis acceleration​

Major national shocks often accelerate regional movements.

Possible triggers:

  • severe economic crisis
  • state collapse in services
  • national constitutional crisis
  • major political radicalisation
Under such conditions:

Earliest plausible referendum attempt:
~2028–2030

But this would require a dramatic shift in national politics.

Scenario C – Stagnation (also possible)​

If the Western Cape remains relatively stable and national politics muddle through:

  • independence stays a permanent pressure movement
  • autonomy reforms may replace secession
In this case:

Referendum may never occur.

Key variables that will determine timing​

1. DA policy change​

If the Democratic Alliance officially supports a referendum, the timeline shortens drastically.

2. Electoral math in the Western Cape​

If pro-referendum parties reach ~30–40% combined vote, pressure becomes difficult to ignore.

3. National constitutional debates​

Any move toward:

  • federalism
  • provincial autonomy
could act as a stepping stone.

4. Economic divergence​

If Western Cape governance visibly outperforms the national average, the independence argument becomes stronger.

My “earliest plausible” estimate​

Taking all constraints into account:

Most plausible earliest window:
➡ 2030–2035

Absolute earliest stretch scenario:
➡ 2028

Anything earlier would require a sudden political earthquake.

Final thought​

The Western Cape independence movement is unusual because:

  • It has steady minority support
  • But weak elite political backing
Historically, independence referendums almost always occur only after major political parties adopt the idea, which has not yet happened in the Western Cape.
 
Request to ChatGPT:

Follow up request - in your now somewhat educated opinion, is it feasible to expect the WC public to support such a referendum when (if) it does happen? Keep in mind the (believed) low conversion-to-reality reaction possibly reflected in the poor 2024 national election results. Keep the response short.



Answer:



Short answer: Yes, it’s feasible — but far from guaranteed.

A few points explain why:

  • Polling around the campaign associated with Cape Independence Advocacy Group has repeatedly suggested ~50% support for holding a referendum, even if fewer support independence itself.
  • In many countries (e.g., Scotland before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum), support for a referendum tends to exceed support for independence because voters see it as a democratic right rather than a commitment to secession.
  • The poor performance of explicitly pro-independence parties in the 2024 South African general election suggests many sympathetic voters still prefer mainstream parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance.
Bottom line:
If a referendum were officially authorized, it is quite plausible the Western Cape public would vote to allow the referendum.

But that doesn’t automatically translate into majority support for independence itself once the real economic and political risks are debated.



/done
 
And yet despite shrieks of expropriation, Julius' silly song, Trumpy's tantrum tariffs and right wingers convinced that the sky is falling, the agricultural sector is actually doing really well.

Including adding 30 000 jobs in Q4 of last year.

Phil must work harder (not difficult).

www.citizen.co.za

Fruit, nuts among South Africa's strongest performing exports | Zululand Observer

Agricultural sector commended for record export performance in the fourth quarter of 2025
www.citizen.co.za www.citizen.co.za
 
vigras rojara said:
And yet despite shrieks of expropriation, Julius' silly song, Trumpy's tantrum tariffs and right wingers convinced that the sky is falling, the agricultural sector is actually doing really well.

Including adding 30 000 jobs in Q4 of last year.

Phil must work harder (not difficult).

www.citizen.co.za

Fruit, nuts among South Africa's strongest performing exports | Zululand Observer

Agricultural sector commended for record export performance in the fourth quarter of 2025
www.citizen.co.za www.citizen.co.za
Click to expand...

Phil-muh-pockets actually work?

Please, he has 25 years of experience at not doing that obviously.
 
If you are sensitive to the existing SAn economic trajectory, look away now....

Cuckery: Paying 80-90% of the tax-base

So that this Socialist, on her parliamentarian salary as minister of justice and constitutional development, can advance the Marxist/Lenninist NDR agenda which includes, amongst others, BELA, NHI, EWC, and the pending Mining BIll.

1773221032678.png
This will destroy families of all shapes, colors and sizes. At least unless you think families should be content with a hand-to-mouth subsistence lifestyle indefinitely.

The DA answers to its donors, not to you, faithful DA voter.
 
Brian_G said:
Bottom line:
If a referendum were officially authorized, it is quite plausible the Western Cape public would vote to allow the referendum.

But that doesn’t automatically translate into majority support for independence itself once the real economic and political risks are debated.
Click to expand...
I suspect that once the discussion is opened up, through the announcement of a referendum on CI.... the numbers in support of independence will go through the roof.

The penny has yet to drop. for the other half of WC voters.
 
lexity said:
Watch as overseas Saffas flock home, to vote YES.
Click to expand...

I'm watching and so far there's no referendum to watch, let alone Saffas flocking home to vote in it.

More action, less watching required, perhaps.
 
lexity said:
I suspect that once the discussion is opened up, through the announcement of a referendum on CI.... the numbers in support of independence will go through the roof.

The penny has yet to drop. for the other half of WC voters.
Click to expand...

Nah, once the reality of what independence would entail (if you lot are honest with the citizens) support would fall through the floor.
 
lexity said:
If you are sensitive to the existing SAn economic trajectory, look away now....

Cuckery: Paying 80-90% of the tax-base

So that this Socialist, on her parliamentarian salary as minister of justice and constitutional development, can advance the Marxist/Lenninist NDR agenda which includes, amongst others, BELA, NHI, EWC, and the pending Mining BIll.

View attachment 1892265
This will destroy families of all shapes, colors and sizes. At least unless you think families should be content with a hand-to-mouth subsistence lifestyle indefinitely.

The DA answers to its donors, not to you, faithful DA voter.
Click to expand...

Ummm you may want to alter your post there Lord Lexy.. cos currently it looks horribly racist in that this black person is somehow the SAn economic trajectory.
 
lexity said:
Watch as overseas Saffas flock home, to vote YES.
Click to expand...

That I can actually believe.. they're far more affected than the more "spoilt" WC-ians.

Otherwise, can't agree with your rosy outlook, think it would be an expensive flop. And why else is Phil dragging his heels....
 
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