Cellphone laws could backfire, MTN warns

If the market was allowed to grow unhindered there could be between 41-million and 43-million Sim cards in circulation by 2009, up from 27-million now.
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Why on earth would a population of 43 million need a nearly equal number of sim cards? Should infants make the vodacom/mtn/cell c decision at birth and be issued one then and there?
LEGISLATION to increase cellphone penetration and make it more affordable could backfire and end up slowing down the industry’s growth, MTN has warned.
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You'll still make profits - just reasonable ones. The country needs to grow now - not just your industry.
The act forces any operator deemed to hold “significant market power” to let other service providers use its network infrastructure at cost price, rather than allowing the operator to charge a commercial fee for the use of its network.
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Thank goodness. Interconnection fees are such a money making scheme its not funny. Its not like we've got a lady named mavis switching all the calls by hand.
 
You're missing the point that lots of people use more than one cellphone, this means a large amount of the population are still unconnected and could be detered from actualy getting connected because of the paper work and red tape added.
 
Vio said:
You're missing the point that lots of people use more than one cellphone, this means a large amount of the population are still unconnected and could be detered from actualy getting connected because of the paper work and red tape added.
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And lots of people have no desire or need to have even one. What percentage of the population are children? Do they all need cellphones?

Why is spending a minute to fill out a form going to deter people - or is it just a deterrence to those who for whatever reason want to remain anonymous?

The phone companies have a vested interest in making the process as quick and painless as possible. They're just bitching about the expenditure biting into their profits.
 
Actually the idea of issuing a cellnumber at birth....interesting.

Think of it as the same as ure ID. All of us have one....Some of us multiples :p
 
bwana v.11 said:
Why on earth would a population of 43 million need a nearly equal number of sim cards? Should infants make the vodacom/mtn/cell c decision at birth and be issued one then and there?

Hmmm... let's think for a second... ne1 got a carphone? 3g card perhaps? maybe a work and private cellphone?

that's four sims that a business professional might hold, given it may only be 10% of the market, but 4 million or so people have 3 or more sims is 12 million.

The population is estimated at 46mil, by 2009 it will be around 50mil.

It's quite feasible that 36 million own 43 to 46 million sim cards, (vodacom has 20 million customers with another 15 or so between MTN and Cell C)

This being said...

The act forces any operator deemed to hold “significant market power” to let other service providers use its network infrastructure at cost price, rather than allowing the operator to charge a commercial fee for the use of its network. That killed any incentive for stronger operators to invest in their infrastructure as they would not be able recoup their input costs, he said.

BullSling, you make your money out of billing your subscribers for services, not by billing the crap out of other network operators (well unless you're a telecom company in South Africa), so you'd still have a hell of an incentive to build your network if you wanted to keep your subscribers.

D


D
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Well we're going to know in a year or so just how many sim cards are actually actively being used - ie those that are important enough for ppl to register them.

Take me for example - I've got a drawer full of sim cards that I keep around for friends/family/associates that come to visit and want a number. They cost a whopping r2 each and there is little to no chance that I'm going to waste my time registering them - its not worth my time. I'm sure loads of people who have seen the massive bin of sim cards at pick'n'pay have picked one up just in case.

The operators are obviously worried how their claimed userbase will stand up to scrutiny.
 
The second law, the Electronic Communications Act that President Thabo Mbeki signed last month, was “a lawyer’s paradise” as it could be interpreted in so many different ways, Manyatshe said.

The act was supposed to increase competition and broaden the choice of services, but it needed months of reworking to ensure that government, the industry, consumers and the regulatory authority would not interpret it differently, he said.

The act forces any operator deemed to hold “significant market power” to let other service providers use its network infrastructure at cost price, rather than allowing the operator to charge a commercial fee for the use of its network. That killed any incentive for stronger operators to invest in their infrastructure as they would not be able recoup their input costs, he said.

“It’s not right to say the government should stand back and not interfere, but it must be measured so there is the freedom to operate,” Manyatshe said.

BMI-TechKnowledge analyst Richard Hurst agrees that the new laws could “alter the course” of the cellphone industry in SA.

If the market was allowed to grow unhindered there could be between 41-million and 43-million Sim cards in circulation by 2009, up from 27-million now.
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lets all get our craigs in a knott shall we..

shame shame shame - interconnects not being charged at wholesale is screwing competition in the mobile industry

simple example
1. all 3 set same interconnect rate i.e. rate which one will charge to the other where call is terminated on their network....so i am a vodacom subscriber and i call a mtn subscriber - the majority of the call charge to me is the interconnect charge which mtn charges vodacom
2. market share - say voda (50%), mtn (40%) & cellc (10%)
3. by extension these percentages reflect the number of calls made to each network (approximately)...i.e. 50% of mobile to mobile calls will be to a vodacom subscriber
4. so as a cell c subscriber 10% of my calls will be on-network (no interconnect charge) while 90% will be off network
5. so even though call charges are the same for each network (say) and the interconnect rates they charge each other are the same - cell c subscribers effectively pay more because they pay more interconnects
6. average cost of call to the cell c subscriber is substantially set by voda and mtn.................
7. cell c remains stuck at between 10 and 15%

now think about the effect of interconnects when the SNO opens up and has 2% of the market with nearly every call terminating on the telkom network - potential nightmare unless telkom is forced to charge only what it actually costs them and not some hyperinflated figure designed to boost profit

and let me not even go into the ludicrous fixed-to-mobile interconnect where telkom scores extra by using charge per minute as opposed to the charge per second model of the mobiles

:mad: :mad: and STFU with this killing future investment - its exactly what your profit-mongering greed is doing to future investment in this country
 
Currently there is a rapidly expanding market for telemetry services where SIMs are installed in all kinds of equipment from ATMs to vehicle tracking to toll-road machines to security systems.

At some stage in the future there will be more machine-based "subscribers" than human subscribers.

A lot of people also have SIMs from 2 or 3 operators, either to use them duirng special deals and promotions; or to have backup during network failures; or to do cheaper on-net calls.

So there are very good reasons why cellphone penetration can go far over 100%.
 
Insider said:
Currently there is a rapidly expanding market for telemetry services where SIMs are installed in all kinds of equipment from ATMs to vehicle tracking to toll-road machines to security systems.

At some stage in the future there will be more machine-based "subscribers" than human subscribers.

A lot of people also have SIMs from 2 or 3 operators, either to use them duirng special deals and promotions; or to have backup during network failures; or to do cheaper on-net calls.

So there are very good reasons why cellphone penetration can go far over 100%.
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All good points but none of these examples are going to be negatively impacted by registration. I hardly envisage the guy from FNB's atm division strolling into pick and pay to get the r1.99 payg packs and loading up on airtime. Just as I couldnt see netstar saying they were unable to track your stolen car because you ran out of airtime. :)

I'd also debate the accuracy of including all the non human applications for simcards in everyday life - though I'm sure a cellphone operator would. After all - if you were told to count the number of computers in your house would you include things like your refrigerator, microwave and dstv decoder?

The operators obviously have a vested interest in claiming the highest subscriber base possible - everything depends on it.
 
bwana v.11 said:
Why on earth would a population of 43 million need a nearly equal number of sim cards?....
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I think they are aware that 1/2 of these sim cards are there to facilitate the growth if criminal activities as well .... they just dress up their statements
 
bwana v.11 said:
Why on earth would a population of 43 million need a nearly equal number of sim cards?....
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I think they are aware that 1/2 of these sim cards are there to facilitate the growth of criminal activities as well .... they just dress up their statements
 
You know what - if they're so concerned about the number of subscribers they could make the service affordable to everyone. Not just for receiving calls but for making them too. I'm sure ppl wouldnt mind registering if they got that.
 
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