My twopenny worth:-
Firstly some ideas on why the current measures may be proving to be ineffective, and secondly to start a discussion on what may be done instead.
Another possibility is that they simply aren't actually that effective even when followed. This is something people are very reluctant to accept.
Firstly some observations re the current COVID messaging
1. It's very Westernised and politically correct. Have we done research in how term such as "social distancing" really resonates locally?
They should change the term anyway. Social distancing sounds very Orwellian. What they mean is physical distancing. I can socially distance myself from someone while standing right up against them.
2. It focusses on inputs, not outputs. We ban alcohol, impose curfews, limits access to certain locations, but don’t address the behaviours people should really be avoiding (more on this later)
3. It is contradictory. We tell people that it's is mostly spread indoors, and then close many outdoor recreational facilities (beaches, rivers, lakes, public parks). Go figure...
4. Its punishes the compliant with the non-compliant. People who have been wearing masks, keeping distance, sanitising hands, staying home, not drinking, are now not allowed to walk on the beach… BTW, where is the data that beaches really contribute to the spread of COVID?
That data doesn't exist as far as I can tell. Many people have asked to see the science behind closing beaches for example. Given their attitude and history it seems quite likely that closing beaches along the south coast and then in Cape Town too was mostly motivated by sticking it to areas controlled by the Democratic Alliance. That it is not driven by science and probably about spite seems obvious when considering that they're sending troops to areas that have had declining daily cases and deaths since about 16 December. In fact daily deaths appear to be way down all over the province.
I have no idea what not drinking alcohol has to do with anything. If you're staying home you wouldn't have any need to visit the beach anyway.
5. It doesn't consider that most people in South Africa are numb to the dangers around them. Despite crime, we continue to live here; despite road carnage, we drive across the country; despite corruption, we continue to pay taxes. Despite COVID, we continue to party…
Well in regard to violent crime, particularly murder, that is partly because if you're living in a middle class or more expensive area there really isn't a lot of it. Although the word carnage is used for road deaths the number of fatalities is in the region of 12,000 isn't it? Considering the number of kilometres travelled your chance of dying on the road probably isn't that high, and it's probably lower for those who can afford better cars.
It's also because humans could never have survived at all if they weren't capable of dealing with what life throws at them. You can't have a hardy, resilient group of people and expect them all to quiver in their boots when we wave a virus around. This is especially so when the scaremongering is so transparent.
6. It doesn’t really deal with the fact that most people are simply not scared of COVID. It's not seen the same way the Great Plague was.
Well for one thing so far it is not even close to being in the same league as the Great Plague. Bubonic plague is far deadlier than COVID-19. Even if left to run wild. On the other hand information we have indicates that people struggled to maintain changes to their lives. We know from more recent pandemics in the 20th century that adherence to measures starts to slip after a while and that trying to maintain them inevitably fails. Psychological research also tells us to expect this inevitability. This is another reason why the extreme measures being forced on the public are so counter-productive. It made sense when the authorities appeared to believe, and told people, they'd be in place very briefly. In that case an all out sprint made sense. Now they're demanding that people continue sprinting indefinitely.
7. Finally, the COVID app is poorly adopted, and is ineffective. It doesn’t provide the time of exposure, takes no account of safety protocols (Masks, sanitiser etc), and fails to offer clear and reasonable actions when triggered.
How could they take account of safety protocols when they have no idea how effective each is?
Here are some thoughts on what we may do differently.
1. Build a narrative that the virus loves parties - when we party, we feed the virus. (This is the implication behind the various restrictions, lets address this much more directly)
Those who are already terrified would buy into that. I don't see it being convincing to anyone else. In fact they'd find such ridiculous propaganda completely laughable.
Now the real risk factor in South Africa is living in close proximity to other people, usually without easy access to sanitation. Good luck with that advertising campaign - stop being poor, move out, get indoor plumbing.
2. Help people visualise the spread of virus - perhaps a green smudge that gets passed on by various behaviours and gets killed through the health protocols
I think we've all seen this before. Ordinary people can't follow hospital level contamination hazard protocols all day every day. So it is fairly pointless showing anything being killed by them.
3. Apply the learnings from the AIDS campaigns to tackle the DONTs in a realistic and graphic manner (Billboards, social media clips, TV) to show how the virus is passed on by
○ Kissing
○ Sharing drinks and food
○ Dancing
○ Touching infected surfaces and sucking fingers
Well it is not passed on by dancing. But again there's no point expecting people to keep this up indefinitely. AIDS was a simpler thing - basically don't let someone bleed all over you and don't have sex with them without protection. It still spread though. It has never really been contained. Telling people they might have to keep up the current SARS-CoV-2 nonsense for years is going to get the expected f*** it response.
4. And show the eventual impact in the elderly, high-risk individuals and health workers. We need the young people to be thinking of those around them who are at risk.
Actually plenty of people are doing the best they can, but they get the big f*** you from the fanatics. The ones who demand more measures, more extreme punishments. The rubbish about killing grannies doesn't help the fanatics' cause.
5. Rethink how we enforce isolation after exposure. I suspect that most people are only isolating themselves if they are really, really sick…
You can't enforce it. Plenty of people will avoid getting tested too if they think the state goons will try to lock them up somewhere. Rightly so. Hence we have to rely on people who have somewhere to live staying home for the 14 or 10 days.