It wasn't an assumption, I was informed that this was the case by some of the Canadian TiVo hackers (we were discussing the potential of getting the DirecTiVo to work on other systems). The issue wasn't with Dish but it may have been Bell ExpressVu/Star Choice/Shaw/Rogers/etc and no they weren't using Irdeto.Not to get in to details... but I think your assumption about Canada is incorrect. The main ones in use are Dish and Bev. both those use NagravisionWhat network in Canada is using irdeto?
I would agree that the situation is SA is closer to that of the Australians given that a couple of their networks also use Irdeto but they do tend to be one or two iterations behind.
As you say, there is little sense in getting into the semantics. Until DSTV actually put something in place it's all pure speculation. Given the fact that DSTV has done little in the way of development over the past year I don't think there is anything to be worried about just yet but it's always good to know where things are headed.