Fibre versus Wireless Broadband

[BGE]

Appreciate the comparison Vodacom, but then explain THIS for an emerging African economy

Easy one, Vodacom has the infrastructure in place, they have the towers, fibre backhaul to many many of these base station towers, and expanding fibre backhaul is ongoing. They've got the core fibre network. So for them it's now all about maximising the returns on their investment, while rolling out improvements like LTE. They know mobile tech well and are able to make massive profits off it. There is no need for them to invest in FTTH. It's the other fixed line monkeys that have lost the plot! Do I need to name them??

You can't blame Vodacom for this market stuff-up, but yes they are using to their advantage!

 

[RJMadCat]

Easy one, Vodacom has the infrastructure in place, they have the towers, fibre backhaul to many many of these base station towers, and expanding fibre backhaul is ongoing. They've got the core fibre network. So for them it's now all about maximising the returns on their investment, while rolling out improvements like LTE. They know mobile tech well and are able to make massive profits off it. There is no need for them to invest in FTTH. It's the other fixed line monkeys that have lost the plot! Do I need to name them??

You can't blame Vodacom for this market stuff-up, but yes they are using to their advantage!

Yes they are and will keep doing so, and people will keep thinking its the way to go.. till one day 50000 years into the future FTTH appears in your PC at home and you wake up, face palm yourself and wonder why you thought wireless is the way to go.

 

[Electron1]

Isn't this exactly what is happening in Joburg at the moment?

What? Where is FTTH in Joburg?

There is talk, but no action that I know of. Please enlighten me.

 

[LaviniaHeks]

LaviniaHeks, you're missing the point. Neotel has been in a position to roll out FTTH since they started in SA... they have the license to do it. But even they are trying(failed so far) to use wireless tech. Why you ask? Because in SA it's about reaching as many customers as possible, as soon as possible. The investors mentality is profits as fast as possible. FTTH requires a different mindset, the investment in infrastructure is long term and so are the potential profits, only big players(like large corporates, and gov) can supply the monetary investment needed! I've always thought Telkom would do it, but a lack of really competition, vision, internal politics and loss/lack of skills has left them looking like a dinosaur! They continue to hang on to dwindling profits for their copper based network... remember copper based tech is a dying art, how much faster do you think copper based ADSL will go, while all the research and tech breakthroughs are sitting in fibre. It doesn't take a genius to see FTTH is the future, not wireless or ADSL! Why else have all major economies worldwide invested so heavily in FTTP & FTTH...

Any business is in it to make money. If the return needs to be over 10 or more years, so be it. You work it into your business plan. And if you've got a good plan, the investors will invest.

Part of a business plan is to have a product priced so people will actually want to buy it. Once you calculate how much you need to sell FTTH for, it'll become clear normal consumers can't afford it and it's the end of the business case.

That is essentially what this study showed. FFTH is just too expensive to deploy.

But RJMasCat seems to KNOW it'll make money. So he should grab the opportunity and become the next IT billionaire before these other *ignorant* CEO's like Lars or Uys or Ord or Venter (who's got no idea how to make money) pick up on this.

Or, back on planet Earth, you could stand back and think about it for a second and wonder, if it's all so simple, why is it not happening? Why are all these evil corporates who love to rape us, not putting FTTH in?

 

[RJMadCat]

Any business is in it to make money. If the return needs to be over 10 or more years, so be it. You work it into your business plan. And if you've got a good plan, the investors will invest.

Did you even bother to Read the link i gave you? it is a 20 year plan

Part of a business plan is to have a product priced so people will actually want to buy it. Once you calculate how much you need to sell FTTH for, it'll become clear normal consumers can't afford it and it's the end of the business case.

That is essentially what this study showed. FFTH is just too expensive to deploy.

No this case study is not showing that. Yes it is showing what the costs are, but it is not showing it is too expensive to deploy.

But RJMasCat seems to KNOW it'll make money. So he should grab the opportunity and become the next IT billionaire before these other *ignorant* CEO's like Lars or Uys or Ord or Venter (who's got no idea how to make money) pick up on this.

Again did you even bother to read the article?

The reason we don't have FTTH is this exact reason you so nicely pointed out. they want to keep all the money rolling and rolling, don't want to spend a few extra coin to make a 20 year investment.

Or, back on planet Earth, you could stand back and think about it for a second and wonder, if it's all so simple, why is it not happening? Why are all these evil corporates who love to rape us, not putting FTTH in?

You said it, who love to Rape us! why spend the extra coin if you can charge the consumer whatever price for a cheaper network that is slower and less reliable.

 

[Stevie G]

LaviniaHeks, i think it should be Liewe Heksie from the 80's.
Fakking wakeup you idiot. instead of being positive and give input to promote FFTH, you slant it in every way on how expensive it is.
We all know how bloody expensive it is, but if you have a proper plan and funds in place, it can be successfull.

 

[RJMadCat]

LaviniaHeks, i think it should be Liewe Heksie from the 80's.
Fakking wakeup you idiot. instead of being positive and give input to promote FFTH, you slant it in every way on how expensive it is.
We all know how bloody expensive it is, but if you have a proper plan and funds in place, it can be successfull.

I was wondering if they share the Genius Gene.

 

[LaviniaHeks]

LaviniaHeks, i think it should be Liewe Heksie from the 80's.
Fakking wakeup you idiot. instead of being positive and give input to promote FFTH, you slant it in every way on how expensive it is.
We all know how bloody expensive it is, but if you have a proper plan and funds in place, it can be successfull.

We all want FTTH. I'd love to dump my 4mbps DSL line and get a higher speed line. I'd still be paying a stupid price per gig but that's OK.

We need to understand why we're not going to get it but fortunately *Mad*Cat (how appropriate) will now deliver it for us as he KNOWS it's going to make money. He's clearly got a *proper* plan, to use your term.

BTW, it's OK for you to swear at me. But just take your head out of the sand and think for a bit.

To launch FTTH, the entry level prices will be thousands per month. Will you pay it? Did not think so. So who is going to build a FTTH network that won't have any customers?

The only way we will get FTTH is to wait for the the corporate community to saturated with fibre. Once business have funded the roll out of fibre into the suburbs, the costs will be low enough to roll it into homes.

First fibre to the corporates, then fibre to multi-dwellings, then fibre to gated-communities, then fibre to the home.

But, what do I know? MadCat has got it covered.

 

[RJMadCat]

We all want FTTH. I'd love to dump my 4mbps DSL line and get a higher speed line. I'd still be paying a stupid price per gig but that's OK.

You have a ADSL line and you are kicking and screaming for wireless? so if you want to Dump your adsl for faster speeds why dont you? Cell C, Vodacom, and MTN's HSDPA+ is "faster" than 4mb/s and its Wireless ... win win for you!

We need to understand why we're not going to get it but fortunately *Mad*Cat (how appropriate) will now deliver it for us as he KNOWS it's going to make money. He's clearly got a *proper* plan, to use your term.

And still you fail to *Read* the *Article* Unfortunately you don't even know where my name comes from, but we all know where yours come from.

BTW, it's OK for you to swear at me. But just take your head out of the sand and think for a bit.

Who called who the idiot first? For future don't criticize if you can't take criticism back.

To launch FTTH, the entry level prices will be thousands per month. Will you pay it? Did not think so. So who is going to build a FTTH network that won't have any customers?

oh it WILL BE thousands per month! because you KNOW this how exactly? please provide us with what it WILL BE costing.
I would take real caution when replying to this and read this little article first: http://mybroadband.co.za/news/broadband/20388-Mbps-Fibre-versus-Mbps-ADSL.html but i guess you dont read, otherwise you would have read my previous link.

The only way we will get FTTH is to wait for the the corporate community to saturated with fibre. Once business have funded the roll out of fibre into the suburbs, the costs will be low enough to roll it into homes.

First fibre to the corporates, then fibre to multi-dwellings, then fibre to gated-communities, then fibre to the home.

But, what do I know? MadCat has got it covered.

Erm WAKE UP, there is already fiber infrastructures all over South Africa. these Corporate companies your talking about already has fiber.. Surprise!! i know this because i am in one! I work on networks for a living.. its my job! i know its hard to believe a guy without matric and still in grade 5 lives a corporate life, but hey strange things happen!

and this just proves what you really do know.

 

[RJMadCat]

double post

 

[LaviniaHeks]

oh it WILL BE thousands per month! because you KNOW this how exactly? please provide us with what it WILL BE costing.

Because it's the current price for FTTH.

But prove me wrong and build a national FTTH network and sell it for ADSL-like pricing. I'll be the first to sign up.

BTW, you're the one who said it WILL make money. You just KNOW it, remember?

So why not post your business plan to show us all how you're so much cleverer than all those captains of industry who's clearly got no clue.

 

[SteveO]

This report makes no sense, there is almost no comparison between 1 fibre connection at 1Gbps and even an LTE site at 100mbps


There is simply not the same kind of capacity in the air interface than in a strand of fibre. Fibre or even copper wins 10 fold.

 

[BGE]

This report makes no sense, there is almost no comparison between 1 fibre connection at 1Gbps and even an LTE site at 100mbps


There is simply not the same kind of capacity in the air interface than in a strand of fibre. Fibre or even copper wins 10 fold.

Exactly SteveO, and as technology evolves so the gap will widen!

 

[BGE]

LaviniaHeks, your business plan theory hold no water... read here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiber_to_the_premises_by_country

If fiber to the premises/home was not viable... the rest of the world would not be doing it! Even SA's peers(economically speaking), like Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Brazil, Argentina,etc... are doing it, they must have some stupid business plans hey!

I'll say it again, go do some research and come back with an intelligent answer, not dribble!

 

[Palimino]

Wireless is effected by weather
Wireless is effected by line of sight

Effected = affected

 

[Palimino]

Programmers, gfx designers, Web Development, architecture. There are hundreds of professions that can benefit from FTTH. Small businesses run from home, the list just goes on.

The biggest driver of FTTH would be the 3rd world need for cheap computing. The biggest boost to ‘the other side of the technology divide’ is the potential for ‘cloud computing’. With all the broadband cables landing in the country [SA], it is feasible to extend access to rural areas (the bandwidth is available). The cost of a ‘dumb terminal’ (little more than a display and a keyboard) and decent Internet access with all heavy duty computing, software and apps along with storage (and skilled maintenance, etc) in central positions, will bring-down computing costs radically and put them within reach of rural populations. With fast Internet, lag would not be significant in computing and people would have normal Internet access with its advantages (knowledge, ecommerce, etc). You won’t be able to play online games, but routine business applications are feasible. Similar to the old mini/mainframe computing model with their dumb terminals except instead of a local intranet, they are tied to the Internet.

Will need FTTH though. Benefits to other users will occur as a by-product to the main thrust (cheap computing).

 

[LaviniaHeks]

So here's an idea, get me the license to do this and me and Madcat will get the investors and roll this out for R300-R450, not the thousands everybody thinks it will cost.

Deal

I got you a list with the names of all the people with their telephone and e-mail details who already have both a network and a service license. You already pegged the retail price at R300-R450 so I assumed you need the service license as well.

To save you lots of hassles, it's easier to pick up a license from one of these people. Over 80% of them are not using their licenses (they just don't have your business acumen, I guess) and you can get a license for a few thousand rand.

So there is your license.

Now, it's just up to you and madcat to get the few Billion Rand you need to roll out.

I played with some numbers and if you buy your national and international bandwidth from Telkom and/or Neotel, you can roll out the juicy sections of JHB, PTA, CPT and DBN for around R10B. If you want to roll out to the less affluent areas and smaller towns, it becomes anyones guess. Most likely the wrong side of R30B. Fortunately you've got it covered.

Monthly expenses can start as low as R10M per month but will probably scale up to around R100M per month as your marketing kicks in to compete with the big boys.

The R100M per month obviously excludes international transport and here you were not clear. What is included in your R300-R450 per month fee? Is it just the fibre link or does it include the data as well? What is the cap or did your work it out as uncapped?

Must say, I'm very excited about your new business and would like to be customer number 1! I'm paying MWEB around a R1000 for uncapped (but shaped) 4Mbps DSL and Cell C R3000 for 5GB per month over a year.

You're going to not only slash my fees by over 75% but will give me fibre to the home on top of it.

Hope you don't mind, but I PM'd rpm to do an interview with you. You're going to be the new hero in SA Telecoms!

 

[Bern]

Way to go

Firstly, so much animosity, calm it down guys!

Secondly, yes, the current companies are profiteering something fierce, but you also need to understand some of the legal and logistical problems they face, like trying to get decent high-sites, spectrum and backhaul.

The biggest problem is that government has still not come to the party, they have been asleep at the wheel for some time now and are basically making it as difficult as possible for the various players to work together and reduce admin and costs.

I can tell you that there are some plans by a forward thinking metro and province to have an intergrated broadband plan where they will actually install fibre, high sites with equipment and provide bandwidth for their needs (along with public access projects) and then offer the instrastructure in various ways to commercial players who can then have various retail offers for the general public.

The pity is there are supposed to be government agencies from the national side who should have already set up plans and given the outlines to provincial and local government- at least for simple things like putting in conduit for fibre/other stuff. That way they control the diggning up of roads etc. while probably doing it at by far the lowest cost (it can be done at the same time as other projects). I mean imagine in a city fibre trunks were put in with street lights and street lights had space provisioned for radio equipment- win.

For rural areas fibre is way to costly compared to the density of people, there radio spectrum is not all jammed up like in the urgban areas and wireless backhaul can be used to provide reasonable bandwidth at a reasonable cost for the density of people. Slowly SANRAL could also put fibre in along all roads when they are upgraded/retarred/rebuilt and within 10 years we could have an awesome national fibre network (again a dark fibre model could be used). As the fibre network grows wireless backhaul could be rerouted to fibre and the towers could revert to last-mile only.

If you looked at the money available for this kind of project (Just Sentech are looking at R800mill, then Fibrco, broadband Infraco, etc.) it would be so easy to do. As long as the government agencies/parastatals don't do the commercial/retail side it will be fine, they should stick to the infrastructure side to promote business and competition.

My 2c

 

[LaviniaHeks]

As far as I'm aware those ECNS licenses that were handed out can't be resold.

Actually they're traded all the time. You already confirmed you can get a few billion rand to roll out your FTTH company, so another few rands to get a license is less than a drop. It'll be less than your salary in the first year.

(You know what? I'm so excited by this I want in. I'll make you (and fatcat) a deal. I'll bring the license for 5% of the business. You already committed the easy stuff including the few billion and the business plan, so we're ready to go.)

Something you were not clear on is what is included in your R300 to R450 price range? Can you clarify? I would assume the R450, as your top-of-the-range-product, is your highest speed fibre with uncapped?

What do I then get for the R300? I'd be happy with 10 or 20 Mbps with a low(ish) cap. Say 100 - 200G.

But the biggest question we've got is when will we see this? We've been raped so long by the likes of Telkom, Vodacom, MTN and lately Cell C who, even though they've got the best wireless deal, sells a mere 5GB of data at speeds of about 3Mbps.

And then these idiot reps on the forum have the audacity to say it's below cost when you've shown you can do FTTH for the same price! Clearly with a much higher cap and speeds 10 times better! I always knew they were lying but now you've proved it!

So you can understand we're all pretty excited for you to get going as soon as possible. Any ideas yet where you're going to launch first? Please just not PE again!

 

[LaviniaHeks]

.....My 2c

Just like you, I also thought it an extremely difficult process to roll out a FTTH network and the costs to do it commercially would make the product prohibitively expensive as a normal consumer effort.

If government does not do it, and it's highly unlikely in our current environment, you'll have to wait for the large networks to do it and logically they'll go the path of highest ARPU. In other words corporate->multi-dwelling->gated-communities->affluent-homes->suburbia->rural, etc.

But I was smoking my socks as bobby23 showed. He's going to launch FTTH at R300. And make money. He's got the investors lines up, so now it's just a matter of time.

Tell you, once this get out in the press a number of those incompetent CEO's (the Lars', Karels, Jeffreys, Pieters, Pinkys, Dougs, Derricks, Andiles, Bretts and Alans, etc.) are going to be on the red carpet trying to explain to their shareholders how they missed this opportunity.

How stupid people like Angus, Jannie, Pieter and Lars must now feel after they said in the press it's not doable at normal consumer pricing.