Fracking just not viable in SA – study

[daveza]

http://www.iol.co.za/scitech/scienc...not-viable-in-sa-study-1.1820786#.VOX8A_mUd8E

The exploitation of shale gas as a cheap energy source in South Africa is a distant – and possibly unlikely – prospect as claims of its being a “game-changer” are based largely on the US experience, not always replicable in other countries.

This is one of the findings of a WWF-South Africa report which assessed the “economic realities” of future fracking in this country.

The report says the shale gas experience in the US is unique. This is borne out by the fact that shale gas exploitation in China, Australia, Mexico, Poland and some other European countries has not only proved difficult, but has also proved less economical than envisaged.

The WWF-SA report is based on its own research, on interviews with specialists and analyses of studies. It was a response to the fact that the fracking conversation in South Africa has focused on the politics of the issue, with little attention to whether it would be commercially viable.

“Based on our current knowledge and assessment, shale-gas extraction has, at best, marginal economics, and its commercial success is largely dependent on five key drivers,” the report said.

These factors remained constant, whether one was in favour of fracking or not. They are:

* the rate at which technological capability is learnt;

* understanding the geology;

* a high enough price for gas and oil plus other incentives;

* the timing and scale of drilling;

* and lessening the cost, during fracking and afterwards, of “externalities” – the costs borne by the environment and society, which are not captured in the market price. This includes issues like water pollution or loss of agricultural livelihoods.

The report argues that, unlike South Africa, shale gas fracking developed in the US, where there was already a well-developed and mature oil and gas industry, with specialised drilling expertise and a knowledge of the geology.

The US also had extensive pipeline and gas storage infrastructure, including in the downstream part of the chain.

It has a well-developed market of gas users, and gas prices are deregulated, allowing easy clearance and trade in gas.

Technological innovation was largely done by US entrepreneurs. South Africa has none of these things.

The report quotes research by Leonardo Maugeri of Harvard Kennedy School, which says shale gas exploration in countries that do not have these endowments would lead to higher costs in exploiting shale gas reserves.

In the US,shale gas exploitation was simply an extension of an existing system, so costs were lower.

The report is at www.wwf.org.za/economic_reality_of_shale_gas

Bold: but we are assured this won't happen.

 

[Hemi300c]

cANCer will go ahead because of it being a cash cow due to corruption and taxes for the coffers.

 

[dlk001]

So Shell is investing money into something that is less economically viable

 

[Greylor]

I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking advice on fracking from John Cena.

 

[Ockie]

Mmm wwf report? Biased perhaps?

 

[Arthur]

So Shell is investing money into something that is less economically viable

Just the sort of thing Shell is known for, eh.

 

[Seriously]

So Shell is investing money into something that is less economically viable

Shell is only doing what the cANCer wants them to do as it will all be at out expense. It's a huge reserve of cash for channeling funds to feed some more from the ANC corruption gravy train.

 

[Lynx_ZA]

Good.. Fracking can stay non-viable.

 

[jansdejager]

So Shell is investing money into something that is less economically viable

Shell is not investing in anything. They want to prospect and then sell the information to the highest bidder... probably the government. A tidy profit for a company that is haemorrhaging from the inside currently.

I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking advice on fracking from John Cena.

Who is John Cena. This is a study from America. Pray tell who you take your advice from.

 

[Greylor]

Who is John Cena. This is a study from America. Pray tell who you take your advice from.

 

[Garson007]

WWF doing an economic study? Haha, no.

 

[diesel]

Well i know a foreigner working for a drilling company in mozambique and he says from his experience exploration drilling they usualy hit gas every 3 out of 10 holes on average but in moz so far they have hit on every hole so far.

 

[EtienneK]

To be fair, the WWF do do good work.

 

[Ockie]

To be fair, the WWF do do good work.

For sure, but this is making my eyebrow do a suspicious lift.

 

[BBSA]

Good.. Fracking can stay non-viable.

Do you prefer coal power stations?

 

[noxibox]

Those are not good reasons to not start working on it now. The same arguments could be made about many developments. If South Africa lacks the infrastructure, then more reason to get going.

 

[Draganchor]

Mmm wwf report? Biased perhaps?

^This

 

[jansdejager]

Whether fracking is viable or not will probably not stop some big oil companies to have one last go at it, before selling their worthless findings to the government for our hardearned tax money. If you support fracking, get ready to cough up, and renounce your right to complain afterwards. Pearls before the swine and so forth.

 

[OzzieCapie]

Shell is only doing what the cANCer wants them to do as it will all be at out expense. It's a huge reserve of cash for channeling funds to feed some more from the ANC corruption gravy train.

Considering that it is the same thing in other countries, what influence would the DA have had? What about your old Nats?

You must have a miserable existence...wake up late because phone time was incorrect....bloody cANCer....drive to work, traffic jam....bloody cANCer, can't find parking ...bloody corrupt cANCer taking all the spots for their buddies, dont get paid enough...bloody cANCer taking all jobs, bloody AA, BEE....
...the whole day grumbling about the cANCer ruining your life, but not doing anything to improve the country...here's a tip, its not going to get better with your grumbling, just top yourself already.

 

[Hemi300c]

Considering that it is the same thing in other countries, what influence would the DA have had? What about your old Nats?

You must have a miserable existence...wake up late because phone time was incorrect....bloody cANCer....drive to work, traffic jam....bloody cANCer, can't find parking ...bloody corrupt cANCer taking all the spots for their buddies, dont get paid enough...bloody cANCer taking all jobs, bloody AA, BEE....
...the whole day grumbling about the cANCer ruining your life, but not doing anything to improve the country...here's a tip, its not going to get better with your grumbling, just top yourself already.

Or be a typical sheep and accept our country's biggest problem........