French Elections 2017

Idiosyncratic said:
I said whether we think it's ideal or not isn't relevant to the point.

My personal opinion? Economic growth and development at the base is ultimately the only sustainable long term solution. You can't play Robin Hood and then expect the structure to remain intact - capitalism itself is designed to counter any attempts to thwart it, hence the need for the artificial stimulus and control we see today. This is unnatural, and is setting us up for disaster. Raising the minimum wage hasn't sparked any significant economic growth I'm aware of, instead, countries which seem like shining beacons of its implementation for the most part only implemented it after reaching a form of economic maturity. If the market dictates a value, you can't counter this with minimum wage and think that there'll be no negative effects. Mark my words, history will judge us as fools should we continue down the path we've begun journeying on. Hard work, not education, should be (and originally was) the determining factor in career advancement and career opportunities.

As for the trickle down voodoo you talk of, it works in an economy without mega conglomerates manipulating markets...it just doesn't happen overnight.

If you look closely at the so-called "progressive tax systems" of countries like NZ, you'll notice sirens going off. They may seem to work now, but somewhere the bubble will pop - you just can't farm backwards forever and hope to get away with it.
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Claiming that the bubble is going to pop, without providing any sort of evidence for that statement, isn't a very useful argument.

As for capitalism... you, like so many others, make the mistake of assuming that it is the only way to achieve economic prosperity and happiness. I suggest you read up on the post-scarcity economy.
 
The_Assimilator said:
Claiming that the bubble is going to pop, without providing any sort of evidence for that statement, isn't a very useful argument.
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Huh. This is new to me. Bubbles pop, that's a fact supported by history, science, the laws of physics and everything. The only evidence that's needed is to accurately identify the bubble.
 
The_Assimilator said:
As for capitalism... you, like so many others, make the mistake of assuming that it is the only way to achieve economic prosperity and happiness. I suggest you read up on the post-scarcity economy.
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Where did I assume it's the only way? I thought someone would bring this up...turns out it's the very next post. I used it in the discussion because last time I checked we live with an economic system referred to as capitalism.

And then you tell me to Google as if it's proof but say one of my previous statements is pointless without proof. Great. Have a Google why welfare is unsustainable in the long term in a capitalistic society - look at some forecasts for NZ (tax revenue vs pensions + welfare and the corresponding effect on the market). I'm not saying welfare or any other form of wealth redistribution can't work, I'm saying that on the scale it has to be implemented, it can't work in a capitalistic society in the long term. Hell, that's part of the fundamentals of capitalism so not difficult to understand. Capitalism and welfare can't go together for extensive periods of time, you have to artificially manipulate the former to allow for the latter. Unfortunately, we live in the age of the microwave where people expect instant results, but economic growth on the scale we need it isn't instant. Screw with capitalism and it'll bite you.
 
Interesting statistics fromn the FT:

Of the 20m voters who chose Mr Macron in the runoff, 43 per cent said they did so to bar Ms Le Pen from power, according to an Ipsos survey. Only 16 per cent of Macron voters said they backed his programme. A third said they liked his promise of “political renewal”.

Adding to the defiant mood, abstention reached 25 per cent, its highest level since 1969, and the number of blank votes hit a record at 12 per cent. This results in a fragile approval rating: 47 per cent the French “do not like” Mr Macron, according to a Cevipof survey released last week.
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Also unlike R2 of the presidential election, you could get 3 or 4 parties in the second round of the legislative elections:

The June legislative elections could be even harder to predict than the presidential one. Many of France’s 577 constituencies could face three or four candidates in the second round of voting on June 18 (any candidate with 12.5 per cent of the votes in the first round goes through to the run-off). Meanwhile unions, who oppose Mr Macron’s plans to introduce labour market reforms by governmental decree, may try to test the new president’s authority and inexperience with street protests.
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https://www.ft.com/content/56e2f694-33c4-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3#comments
 
Idiosyncratic said:
Where did I assume it's the only way? I thought someone would bring this up...turns out it's the very next post. I used it in the discussion because last time I checked we live with an economic system referred to as capitalism.

And then you tell me to Google as if it's proof but say one of my previous statements is pointless without proof. Great. Have a Google why welfare is unsustainable in the long term in a capitalistic society - look at some forecasts for NZ (tax revenue vs pensions + welfare and the corresponding effect on the market). I'm not saying welfare or any other form of wealth redistribution can't work, I'm saying that on the scale it has to be implemented, it can't work in a capitalistic society in the long term. Hell, that's part of the fundamentals of capitalism so not difficult to understand. Capitalism and welfare can't go together for extensive periods of time, you have to artificially manipulate the former to allow for the latter. Unfortunately, we live in the age of the microwave where people expect instant results, but economic growth on the scale we need it isn't instant. Screw with capitalism and it'll bite you.
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In the context of capitalism, yes, the welfare state is not feasible; one or the other has to give. And considering that the welfare state is here to stay - regardless of what the right may think - it has to be capitalism that goes, or changes. I feel like we're actually on the same page here. :)

My question - or rather, THE question - is how do we get people (especially the "free market capitalists") to accept that capitalism has to change to conform to the way of the world, and what and how do we do to replace or supplant capitalism?

I believe that the Nordic countries are very likely the ones that will provide the answer. By adopting more socialist policies, they have done a better job than almost all capitalist economies at balancing tax and welfare spending. I think it's largely due to the fact that their population is happy to elect politicians and civil servants who are qualified for their jobs, and trust in the judgement of those officials. Not being ideologically wedded to a particular economic system (e.g. the way Americans worship capitalism) allows them to be pragmatic and implement policies that actually benefit their citizens, regardless of whether said policies are left or right or center or whatever.
 
Idiosyncratic said:
Yep, definitely.

The debate now is, if we keep welfare, what do we replace capitalism with?

That's where you and I will likely differ
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My view is that a post-scarcity society is inevitable. And in such a society you don't need money, so capitalism - and every other economic system based around currency - will disappear.
 
The_Assimilator said:
My view is that a post-scarcity society is inevitable. And in such a society you don't need money, so capitalism - and every other economic system based around currency - will disappear.
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Utopia is a really nice place.
 
The_Assimilator said:
My view is that a post-scarcity society is inevitable. And in such a society you don't need money, so capitalism - and every other economic system based around currency - will disappear.
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From my understanding of post-scarcity, some things will always remain scare, and as it's usually defined, money is still involved? I'm curious to hear you take...
 
Lots of changes these last days.

On Macron's side:

Hollande's prime minister, Manuel Valls declared yesterday that he was ready to be a MP for Macron's party (leaving the socialist party). He declared that the socialist party is dead, and is going to be excluded.

Today, Macron's party answered that they're not interested by him.

On the FN's side:

Marine's niece, Marion quits politics and has resigned from the FN (where she was one of the very few MPs), she apparently never got along with Marine ideologically and personally and she is very close to the father.

Rumors of a major reshuffle inside the FN including cadres kicking out Marine (with the support of the father's lieutenants...) and also a name change.
 
f2wohf said:
Lots of changes these last days.

On Macron's side:

Hollande's prime minister, Manuel Valls declared yesterday that he was ready to be a MP for Macron's party (leaving the socialist party). He declared that the socialist party is dead, and is going to be excluded.

Today, Macron's party answered that they're not interested by him.

On the FN's side:

Marine's niece, Marion quits politics and has resigned from the FN (where she was one of the very few MPs), she apparently never got along with Marine ideologically and personally and she is very close to the father.

Rumors of a major reshuffle inside the FN including cadres kicking out Marine (with the support of the father's lieutenants...) and also a name change.
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lol @ FN.

How do things look for En Marche!'s parliamentary prospects? French politics seem more volatile (i.e. seats flip around quite a lot) to me, but I don't know the history that well.
 
Macron campaign team used honeypot accounts to fake out Fancy Bear

The failed effort by Russian attackers to influence the outcome of the French presidential campaign in its final hours was in part a forced error, thanks to an active defense by the digital team of French president-elect Emmanuel Macron's campaign organization, the digital director of the campaign has claimed. Campaign team members told the New York Times that as the phishing attacks mounted, they created a collection of fake e-mail accounts seeded with false information.

"We created false accounts, with false content, as traps," Macron campaign digital director Mounir Mahjoubi told the Times. "We did this massively, to create the obligation for them to verify, to determine whether it was a real account."

---

The bait documents may have caused the attackers to rush their efforts. As Ars reported Monday, the eventual dump of documents by the attackers included metadata showing Russian versions of Microsoft Office were used to edit some documents, and the name of an employee of a company providing information security services to Russian intelligence organizations was in document metadata showing the last person to edit at least nine documents. Multiple documents were proven to be forgeries, including one which appeared to be an invoice for a Bitcoin payment for mephedrone ("bath salts") to be sent to the French National Assembly. The Bitcoin wallet and blockchain transaction data was easily determined to be fake
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https://arstechnica.com/security/20...sed-honeypot-accounts-to-fake-out-fancy-bear/
 
Patrick_Hockstetter said:
So the new president of France is a short man married of to his school teacher.

:crylaugh:
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He's 173 cm. The exiting president was 170 and the previous one 165.

Should I start on the president of the US or of South Africa ? Because they're way easier targets...
 
OrbitalDawn said:
lol @ FN.

How do things look for En Marche!'s parliamentary prospects? French politics seem more volatile (i.e. seats flip around quite a lot) to me, but I don't know the history that well.
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They revealed 428 of their 577 candidates. The missing ones will be announced by next Wednesday.

They all have empty criminal records (for once), 50% women and none must have been MP 3 times.

52% come from civil society and only 24 are currently MP.

For the polls, I find one that says that Macron would have a short majority. The socialist party would lose a lot, LR (right) would be second and the FN would be third.

But it's extremely hard to plan and the polls are quite often inaccurate since the voting system is 2 rounds and all candidates with over 12.5% qualify for the second round. People also vote a lot on personalities and not only parties since the MPs are also very involved locally.
 
f2wohf said:
He's 173 cm. The exiting president was 170 and the previous one 165.

Should I start on the president of the US or of South Africa ? Because they're way easier targets...
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Sweet mother... his wife is 24 years his senior!!!

Re height: in relation to Le Pen
 
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