How low will Sasol go?

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DrewChan

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As above, do you believe sasol shares will continue to plummet, if so at what point do you think it will start to recover
 
DrewChan said:
As above, do you believe sasol shares will continue to plummet, if so at what point do you think it will start to recover
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Isn't the price moving down due to the global oil price?

As I understand it, with oil being so cheap, using Sasols coal to fuel is probably reaching cost of manufacture by now.

In my uncalculated estimates, the price will settle at a low point soon and stay there till oil goes up again.
 
noob_saibot said:
Isn't the price moving down due to the global oil price?

As I understand it, with oil being so cheap, using Sasols coal to fuel is probably reaching cost of manufacture by now.

In my uncalculated estimates, the price will settle at a low point soon and stay there till oil goes up again.
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Not sure how long that will take as there is a huge over supply at the moment to the point where big oil companies are keeping oil at sea till the price is right.
 
Sasol employs market parity pricing...they'll be OK.

They'll bleed sure...but ultimately they'll be OK.
 
IMHO I think it's a mafia trade and i assume price fixing is in the order of the day.
Joe Soap will never get a grip on what's really going on in the process of reaching the price per barrel for crude.
 
Lager said:
IMHO I think it's a mafia trade and i assume price fixing is in the order of the day.
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Its a publicly traded company under massive amounts of scrutiny by multiple parties....you assert its a "mafia trade"....feel free to back your claim with proof.

I'm not claiming Sasol is crystal clean...but lets keep things reasonable here.
 
HavocXphere said:
Its a publicly traded company under massive amounts of scrutiny by multiple parties....you assert its a "mafia trade"....feel free to back your claim with proof.
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I'm assuming the worse :p
Who really knows? me? you?
 
Lager said:
I'm assuming the worse :p
Who really knows? me? you?
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I know many things. :D

Sasol will be just fine - the price parity insulates them from pretty much everything...worse case scenario is vicious job cuts. Same goes for other companies run on a commercial basis.

Its the economy as a whole that is at risk...on current course the sovereign SA rating won't survive the winter. (Winter is coming)
 
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the price of petrol is said to be increasing by R1, sixty something.

that will probably increase the share prices.
 
HavocXphere said:
I know many things. :D

Sasol will be just fine - the price parity insulates them from pretty much everything...worse case scenario is vicious job cuts. Same goes for other companies run on a commercial basis.

Its the economy as a whole that is at risk...on current course the sovereign SA rating won't survive the winter. (Winter is coming)
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sasol has already been cutting quite a few jobs, prior to the whole petrol price decrease.
 
The fuel component is separate from crude oil price since sasol does not refine or deal in crude oil. They are mainly losing money on foreign operations in Canada and other offshore investments. Also remember that outlay on big projects such as the line to cahora Bassa takes a big bite of the balance sheet, but will pay off in the long run.
 
Price of the share is quite tightly linked at the moment to the oil price. Not many analysts expect the price to hang about at the current levels. Likely to slowly track the open market price as it slowly escalates.
 
jansdejager said:
The fuel component is separate from crude oil price since sasol does not refine or deal in crude oil. They are mainly losing money on foreign operations in Canada and other offshore investments. Also remember that outlay on big projects such as the line to cahora Bassa takes a big bite of the balance sheet, but will pay off in the long run.
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Quite a valid alternate view.

Are you analyzing from a holding-investors POV?

I could see how the price would tank due to laying down capital into long-term assets (that are currently non-performing).
 
noob_saibot said:
Quite a valid alternate view.

Are you analyzing from a holding-investors POV?

I could see how the price would tank due to laying down capital into long-term assets (that are currently non-performing).
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Why would the analysis differ if it was?
 
I will buy everytime they go sub 40000, it's a quality Company that "should" recover in time.
 
HavocXphere said:
Why would the analysis differ if it was?
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I don't know what your personal experience with trading is, but from what I know, short-term market traders (also called technical traders) don't look at longevity when investing.
 
OK, so for the man in the street (investors) it's a good buy, just be patient. For traders not so much...
 
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