Is Apple ARMing for war against Intel?

^ you will notice my money is also on Intel, my money is not on AMD making success with ARM.
I do however believe Intel's leaving ARM was a mistake - they really had wonderful products on the architecture. In similar vain I think Nokia made the double error of leaving Symbian and not going with Windows earlier (I do have suspicions about the amount of Symbian in Windows RT and Windows Phone 8)

The statement I am making is that Intel's attempt to scale down for user devices - the Atom - is not pulling off to the same extent as ARM is. Fact of the matter is that it would make less sense for Apple to use Intel scale down for their consumer access devices and this is why Apple went the ARM route for the iPhone, iPad and why I suspect they'll go with ARM for a line of Macbook Air devices.

As for the server market I think you'll find far more processor diversity than the manufacturers would like.`GPUs have become more general purpose, virtualization has jumped in leaps and bounds and there are so many options at play to building powerhouses.
 
Fact of the matter is that it would make less sense for Apple to use Intel scale down for their consumer access devices and this is why Apple went the ARM route for the iPhone, iPad and why I suspect they'll go with ARM for a line of Macbook Air devices.

When Apple started the iPhone - yes - Intel didn't have any suitable x86 parts - but going forwards, It's exactly the class of CPU that Apple would use (high-end ARM), which would be the perfect fit for Intel's new-gen Atom SoC. As I said, there's literally nothing in the power usage between similar performing Atom/ARM parts now. I would say Apple moving to x86 for their iPhone/iPad is more likely than moving the laptops/desktop to ARM.

As for the server market I think you'll find far more processor diversity than the manufacturers would like.`GPUs have become more general purpose, virtualization has jumped in leaps and bounds and there are so many options at play to building powerhouses.

For classic server loads - massive multitasking, gigantic I/O - ARM isn't even anywhere vaguely in the ballpark of the current Intel chips. It's a long hard road there... years away. And for the low-end servers, as you rightly point out, virtualization is a perfectly viable solution. With the elasticity of the CPU/IO/memory assignments and live fail-overs that VMware and Hyper-V give, it's hard to justify moving to more rigid ARM-based machines.
 
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I am not convinced that Intel will get Atom SoC to be able to do what Intel needs - in part because of the fact that you need to have a SoC with the right co-processors and so on - and because what Atom is doing remarkably well is as lower powered workstations (probably as powerful actually as the old-order workstation market but still) which are green and whatnot. There is also huge amounts of looking at making Atom work in the server environment which is an opposite direction to the consumer electronics market.

Even if there is no advantage in an ARM based MacBook Air it would still have a simple upper hand - market hype, it will be something new. Also we would be looking at iOS - and Apple will want there bigger boys to be able to run whats on the MacBook Air.
 
I am not convinced that Intel will get Atom SoC to be able to do what Intel needs - in part because of the fact that you need to have a SoC with the right co-processors and so on

The new Atom architecture is incredibly modular - they're adding cores as they run up the consumer chain very easily, and they're adding the same SoC GPUs as are on ARM chips. I think they're in a very good place, and I'm excited to see how ARM reacts to this. It's certainly a major worry for them. Intel will soon get ahead in the fabrication processes and die shrinks - they always do. I predict in 6 months Intel's x86 SoC will be more power efficient than the ARM equivalent.

Even if there is no advantage in an ARM based MacBook Air it would still have a simple upper hand - market hype, it will be something new. Also we would be looking at iOS - and Apple will want there bigger boys to be able to run whats on the MacBook Air.

Market hype only gets you so far - sooner or later, users just want their apps to work. Intel built some nice tech for their x86 Android port that lets Android ARM apps run at near-native speed on the Atom SOC. I'm sure that if Apple said "give", then Intel would, if it meant stealing massive ARM marketshare! You have to remember that apart from being excellent in CPU engineering, Intel is a clear leader in the compiler/profiling area of the market. They have impressive software engineering resources to tempt the players with too.

Also bear in mind that iOS is a watered-down OSX, so if they've maintained that well, getting a x86 iOS up and running shouldn't be anywhere near as much of a problem as moving the rest of the OSX OS to ARM.

I don't care either way, I don't plan to buy an Apple product in the foreseeable future, regardless of what CPU they go with - the Android/PC market is far more important than what Apple does anyway - that will decide the fate of the ARM/x86 balance, not what Apple decides to put in its iProducts.
 
O look Intel is driving ARM to ARMv8 and they made a strategic move and bet when they moved away from ARM (I think it was a mistake, not because I doubt the credibility of the Atom project - I am a fan - but because of the possibilities which lurk in the ARM bundle especially as a mature RISC system (I see great potential for a workstation x86 based system running an ARM co-processor in a similar manner to the gpgpu) ARM is riding a lot of hype at the moment and AMD have a lot to gain by playing on it. Find an anti Intel site and you'll read all manner of anti thunderbolt, pro-ARM, Apple is not going to stick with Intel (for at least the
last 12 months) and Atom is a failure. Intel's ability to stay ahead of the curb and if it falls behind to catch up and take the lead is remarkable but their focus is on high end performance not user experience and that's where Apple make it count.

I suspect porting MacOsX to ARM will be a nightmare but running iOS Apps on x86 will not require a change at all - all the more reason to overprice x86.

Not sure where google is directing itself so I see android as arm strongpoint. Microsoft windows server 2013 exlusively supports x86 which is a big deal.

Hence my money is that iMac and MacBook Pro will stay in intel fold whilst Air will go to A7X or whatever with a thunderbolt controller as a device.
 
(I see great potential for a workstation x86 based system running an ARM co-processor in a similar manner to the gpgpu)

I'm not sure I see the point of putting an ARM copro into an x86 system? The Medfield/Cloverfield devices have killed the "ARM is more power efficient" myths, and don't offer any performance advantages over just adding more Atom cores? Am I missing something?

but their focus is on high end performance not user experience and that's where Apple make it count.

6 months ago I'd have agreed with you, but with Intel pushing hard, making reference platforms for Medfield, and Motorola and Lenovo adopting Medfield in actual real life phones that are on the market right now, shows that Intel is serious. Clover Trail will be when Atom hits the bigtime. Apart from the price, there's absolutely no advantage ARM has over them, and we all know Intel - their speciality is harnessing the scales of magnitude and driving prices down.

On the other end of the scale, Intel are making lower and lower power i3/i5 chips, so at some point Atom and i3/i5 will meet to make a complete range, and then ARM will really have a tough time finding a niche to live in.

As I said before, I'm rooting for ARM to make an impact, but it's hard to get too enthusiastic ... I really want a Clover Trail tablet more than anything ARM has on the market or in their roadmap :)
 
The only way this will work is if they embrace the cloud and all processing is done on the server, thus allowing the user to have a thin based client.
 
Intel is always 2 generations away from mobile. Medfield is nice but not absolutely competitive in a way that would sell itself. Their great weakness on mobile is still IGP which is completely crucial in touchscreens.

I don't think it's accurate to call this a war, or even to suggest that Apple is moving towards ARM. It's more likely that they want total autonomy over the engineering of their chipsets at every level and specific to every device. They've never been an off-the-shelf type of company; their hardware and software are fully customized at every level.
 
Intel is always 2 generations away from mobile. Medfield is nice but not absolutely competitive in a way that would sell itself. Their great weakness on mobile is still IGP which is completely crucial in touchscreens.

Why do you say Medfield's not competitive? It's starting to gain momentum. Takes a while for changes like that to ripple through the industry. Sure, it might not sell itself by being twice as fast or half as cheap or something like that, but Intel's deep software skills and all their hard work on optimizing the x86 Android user and developer experience should pay off at some point.

I'm not sure why you say they have a weakness in IGP? The new Atom parts use the PowerVR IGP, the same as the equivalent ARM chips. I think it's a better idea using a proven 3rd party engine than trying to build you own - something that Intel keeps demonstrating isn't their strong point :)
 
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Why do you say Medfield's not competitive? It's starting to gain momentum. Takes a while for changes like that to ripple through the industry. Sure, it might not sell itself by being twice as fast or half as cheap or something like that, but Intel's deep software skills and all their hard work on optimizing the x86 Android user and developer experience should pay off at some point.
It does fine. It's equivalent to other chipsets. But it isn't clearly better than anything else. Qualcomm and ARM are still incumbents and ARM v15 is looking immensely strong. It's this 'at some point' that I'm talking about - just wait for the next die shrink, eternally. It was meant to be Larrabee, then it was meant to be whatever that intermediate chip was (I forget the name), then it was meant to be Medfield which actually made a good showing for itself. But it's always around the corner.

I'm not sure why you say they have a weakness in IGP? The new Atom parts use the PowerVR IGP, the same as the equivalent ARM chips. I think it's a better idea using a proven 3rd party engine than trying to build you own - something that Intel keeps demonstrating isn't their strong point :)
They use PowerVR? Mm I wasn't aware of that. Anyway it's always been a weakness of theirs; perhaps it will change I don't know. It is certainly a major priority for Apple judging by where their benchmarks have been skewing for the past couple of generations.
 
It does fine. It's equivalent to other chipsets. But it isn't clearly better than anything else. Qualcomm and ARM are still incumbents and ARM v15 is looking immensely strong. It's this 'at some point' that I'm talking about - just wait for the next die shrink, eternally. It was meant to be Larrabee, then it was meant to be whatever that intermediate chip was (I forget the name), then it was meant to be Medfield which actually made a good showing for itself. But it's always around the corner.

Actually, how you describe Intel's mobile efforts, are where ARM is with their server/desktop efforts right now :) Although Intel has actually realized their aim of making a competitive chip. ARM's now the 'at some point' option. Come on ARM, make a plan. It'll make for great win8 nettops that don't need the desktop.
 
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I'm not sure I see the point of putting an ARM copro into an x86 system? The Medfield/Cloverfield devices have killed the "ARM is more power efficient" myths, and don't offer any performance advantages over just adding more Atom cores? Am I missing something?

I have spent quite a bit of time thinking on this one and IANACS, but hopefully my view is reasonably coherent.

The IA32 architecture has evolved in a very odd but powerful way over the last 27 years with the virtualization routine really being a big deal and economics trumps technical considerations time after time, after all RAID is premised on inexpensive devices and look at what SATA did to SAS (and more broadly how SCSI never quite got there). MIPS and SPARC and POWER and to many other architectures and processing systems to think of have all been around and apart from filling special niche markets have generally not managed to rival the great birth of 1985 (the 386) in what can be termed general purpose computing (and of course even there you have the fact that the 386 had a heads up because of the 8086 forming the base of the IBM PC).

Now on a basic level general purpose computing really is all about getting maximum pull of hardware, software compatibility and killer apps (not apps in the modern tablet computing sense but apps as an application that made somebody buy a computer like Excel). This means that when OS/2 was priced out of the market its death warrant was signed and when IBM put together the PS/2 and tried a MCA bus over ISA (which took a damn long time to die) it didn't do itself any favours (until ironically the PS/2 connectors were adopted later on as a standard by the then kings of general purpose computing Microsoft and Intel). In my view the big boys for general purpose computing remains today Intel and Microsoft (although not to the same extent as about 14 years ago) with the most pull and then a host of players - most of whom have been around for a long time - but that in reality the market does have bizarre checks preventing any one entity from going on its own without getting knocked into the cold: Microsoft can introduce a new harddrive system at its own peril for example. Apple is an interesting side player (and always have been) because they stay out of what is the general purpose PC but really are the most succesful general purpose computer manufacturer that isn't a PC but thats a bit of a distraction. The 386 wasn't exclusively used in general purpose computing though and there are embedded systems. And there was a progression from IBM PC to a fairly loose Wintel concept of the computer with PC99 as a good example of how much pull Microsoft and Intel have on the market but also of just how much of a market driven industry it is. And lets face it Intel failed to bring to the market a 64 bit extension that was accepted and the Pentium 4 was a disgrace so it had its ass handed to it and basically had to adapt with regard to the first issue by letting AMD have a headstart with AMD64 and introducing EM64T to follow the market and in the second instance to modify their development stream.

The only exception to a rule of path dependence leading down to the IBM PC has been on the front of mobile phones to smart phones joined up with tablets and phablets and all other vile beasts. In this instance a handful of processor manufacturers using an ARM base have managed to grow into general purpose computing devices with a vengence. Nothing demonstrates this more than Android and iOS except for Microsoft going in with guns with RT. So Windows 8 has dropped support for everything except x86 and ARM and if you look at major distros of *nix os'es the story repeats itself.

So if we look at it I would state in general terms that there are three quasi-arch (a somewhat nebulous term I am injecting) support routines running x86-32, x86-64 and ARMv7. Now I know that with ARM the architecture discrepency is probably larger than between 32 and 64 on x86 but in terms of software development - and the somewhat capricious criteria for a quasi-arch I am going with - there is a difference. Windows 8 quite specifically accomodates all three quasi-architechtures and there market position means that this reinforces path dependence.

Now this makes life a little more difficult for ARMv8 - which I am not sold on, but lets assume manages to get critical mass it still doesn't affect my basic premise because it would probably affect the market currently using HP-UX and Solaris and what not, so niche markets.


If Microsoft wasn't developing both RT and Phone with the correlated development spend I'd write ARM as dead in the water in the next generation but Microsoft is and Android and iOS are turning up new developers en masse.

Basically it boils down to path dependence acting in favour of ARM co-existing with x86-32 as quasi-archs for 32 bit software and x86-64 being the beast boy. Now your workstation computers, and servers, really need the tools which the x86-64 quasi-arch brings with it, especially in terms of virtualization and so on.

With Atom Intel is adopting the fact that more processing power does not mean better computing and lets face it the x84-32 quasi-arch is really matured and is beautifully virtualized. Big bad datacentres and monster computing will work like a bomb and for the most part it will make no sense for systems to virtualize other quasi-archs unless the market demands that they do - and here is where ARM in my view already has itself running. Already a PC can virtualize ARM and simply because of development this will continue to improve. And again the Microsoft factor kicks in and I anticipate that Server 2012 will get software to host RT apps.

The 86 quasi-archs don't appear to have gotten the power down to interaction time routine developed to quite the extent that ARM has and for user centric computing this is relly important. On the other hand I can't think of a production use of an ARM system which is running at high performance on a constant basis. Virtualization and "the cloud" is largely premised on the assumption of maximizing the utilization of processing power whereas ARMs strength has been in providing a quality user experience on demand - as in smart phones etc ...

Now when looking at this together I see ARM as the only quasi-arch which can be thought of for secondary software handling (with there being enough software written for the platform and OS support being a given). When you are running a desktop computer you don't adjust virtual machines etc ... you do however use different amounts of computing power and get highly annoyed when Adobe Photoshop is killing your web-browser, now one solution is to do your web browsing and must playing on another machine (a tablet no doubt) but if that could be handed over to a processor - which is cheaper than the tablet there is play.

My view was reinforced when I played with Windows 8 the Metro apps and the desktop stuff are being built to work well in parallel to each other and nothing will make Microsoft happier than having Zune or whatever music player runs in the backround being eligible to be handed over away from the Core i5 beast that is the desktop workstation. Now there are two things an ARM co-processor has going over an Atom co-processor - cost and time to live (and yes Intel might make improvements there but I am not holding my breath). The economics factor in my mind plays like this - if it is cheaper to have a Microsoft supported ARM coprocessor than the price difference between a Core i5 and Core i7 the market is going to have space for the coprocessor. Add to this the fact that you don't have heat being added and so on and life is good.

Add to this the fact that the Rasberry PI and other hobbiest systems are using ARM and the case grows.
 
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