Let the deal happen

[ic]

I agree they definitely need to own their own backhaul links, I'm just wondering how Telkom's network is set up, if it'd be possible to buy it piece by piece like that or if its too integrated and they'd have to rather run their own fibre to replace Telkom's network entirely. If there's one piece of fibre running from each tower to an exchange then as you said they'd just have to run their own fibre to each exchange and interconnect from there, but if these physical lines are effectively shared by one or more cell networks and various other companies I'm not sure how possible that'd be, but admittedly I know nothing about Telkom's network topology, I'm just speculating.

Same here- I don't know much about Telkodemonopolies' network topology, and I agree it could be a problem in cases where Vodacom & MTN share the same physical base-station site & mast as Telkodemonopolies likely forces them to share the same physical backhaul link.

I just think that too many assumptions are being made about what MTN wants out of Telkodemonopolies - specifically that MTN wants more than bits & pieces of network infrastructure - IMO MTN is not interested in buying up most of Telkodemonopolies, instead I think that MTN has a list of things that it wants to buy from Telkodemonopolies to give MTN a competitive edge in the short-term & going forward. Also, the dividends associated with Telkodemonopolies' sale of its 50% of Vodacom are expected by shareholders - there will be hell to pay if Telkodemonopolies does not sell off at least part of its 50% of Vodacom - I'm sure Poison Ivy et al will insist that the full 50% gets sold ASAP.

 

[Syndyre]

Same here- I don't know much about Telkodemonopolies' network topology, and I agree it could be a problem in cases where Vodacom & MTN share the same physical base-station site & mast as Telkodemonopolies likely forces them to share the same physical backhaul link.

I just think that too many assumptions are being made about what MTN wants out of Telkodemonopolies - specifically that MTN wants more than bits & pieces of network infrastructure - IMO MTN is not interested in buying up most of Telkodemonopolies, instead I think that MTN has a list of things that it wants to buy from Telkodemonopolies to give MTN a competitive edge in the short-term & going forward. Also, the dividends associated with Telkodemonopolies' sale of its 50% of Vodacom are expected by shareholders - there will be hell to pay if Telkodemonopolies does not sell off at least part of its 50% of Vodacom - I'm sure Poison Ivy et al will insist that the full 50% gets sold ASAP.

I wonder whether MTN will be given that option though or if it'll be presented to them as an all-or-nothing deal and then if they wanted only pieces they'd be forced to buy everything and sell what they don't want off later themselves. This governmental talk about MTN being an "African champion" makes me wonder if they expect MTN to be the new SAA, making investments based on political rather than financial considerations. Not as easy with a private company but reality's never proved a restriction to the government.

 

[ic]

I wonder whether MTN will be given that option though or if it'll be presented to them as an all-or-nothing deal and then if they wanted only pieces they'd be forced to buy everything and sell what they don't want off later themselves. This governmental talk about MTN being an "African champion" makes me wonder if they expect MTN to be the new SAA, making investments based on political rather than financial considerations. Not as easy with a private company but reality's never proved a restriction to the government.

This is why Telkodemonopolies has to sell its 50% of Vodacom first for all of this to play out properly - once that has happened, Telkodemonopolies will have a large amount of cash that shareholders will expect to receive in special dividends, after that happens, Telkodemonopolies' only value will be its various wired fixed line network infrastructures, at that point MTN will be in a better position to negotiate - but Telkodemonopolies will not be able to undo the sale of Vodacom when it realises that MTN has a strategy.

If I were MTN, I would not buy the bits of Telkodemonopolies that MTN does not want - there are all sorts of issues with trying to split Telkodemonopolies apart and sell off unwanted bits - including !CASA with licensing & regulatory issues that could take !CASA one or more years to sort out...

 

[Syndyre]

This is why Telkodemonopolies has to sell its 50% of Vodacom first for all of this to play out properly - once that has happened, Telkodemonopolies will have a large amount of cash that shareholders will expect to receive in special dividends, after that happens, Telkodemonopolies' only value will be its various wired fixed line network infrastructures, at that point MTN will be in a better position to negotiate - but Telkodemonopolies will not be able to undo the sale of Vodacom when it realises that MTN has a strategy.

If I were MTN, I would not buy the bits of Telkodemonopolies that MTN does not want - there are all sorts of issues with trying to split Telkodemonopolies apart and sell off unwanted bits - including !CASA with licensing & regulatory issues that could take !CASA one or more years to sort out...

Yeah, it all comes down to what government wants I suppose, as the controlling shareholder if you include the PIC stake they're the ones MTN would have to negotiate with. Considering ICASA's lack of independence I'm sure the necessary regulations would be included as part of the deal, unofficially of course.