Load Shedding Predictions

[kaspaas]

Hi,

there is very little data available in an organised fashion to Jo Soap.

I tried to make sense of the current Power Shortage with a few assumptions and produced the table below:

Year Demand Reduce Capacity Gap
2008 100 -1 97 3
2009 102 -2 93 7
2010 104 -3 90 10
2011 106 -4 87 13
2012 108 -5 84 16
2013 110 -6 81 19

Year: It is obvious what this is

Demand: Current demand is 100%, growing at 2% a year compounded

Reduce: Capacity reduction every year because of increase equipment failure due to over utilisation

Capacity: The capacity of Eskom to deliver - at present it is taken as 97 % - 3 hours blackout in 60 hours peek per week is 3%.

The gap is the shortage between what is required and what could be delivered.

The short and sweet: By 2012 you should expect at least 5 x more dark hours than at present.

In general, the assumptions should favour Eskom. It is doubtful if peak demand will grow by only 2%, and if capacity will decline by only 1% per year.

Obviously, the assumptions and method used is open for discussion - it is crude, but it does highlight how bad the future is going to be.

 

[Moederloos]

Nice - not sure if the figures are that accurate, but kind of does show the magnitude of the problem.

Also, just one successful sabotage on one large power station, and (as they say in the movies), "it's tickets".

 

[Sebs]

Nicely thought out. Though growth is all but stymied already by the power cuts. Small business revenues have crashed, productivity has been slashed by monstrous traffic jams, the population's morale is at rock bottom and top-drawer skills are fleeing the country in droves. Growth? That's not going to happen anymore. Except in political posturing.

We could even see a shrinking of the ecomnomy and experience negative growth. This would turn your model on its head. In a perverse way, there would be no capactiy shortfall whatsoever and Eskom would not have to build any more power stations - there would be adequate supply for a depleted economy. What an attractive proposition for the Eskom fat-cats!

 

[HavocXphere]

Nice calculation. I would however, dispute the Reduce factor. I think Eskom will be throwing some serious money at the maintenance problem because it is the only thing they have any real control over.

You can also add the Coega aluminum smelter. Guesstimate for completion is 2011 and power usage is 1500mW (1300mW continuous)

Also, I think you're being a bit too kind with the demand growth. y/y Growth has been as high as 4.7% at times. (http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/default/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&ArticleID=1518-25_2142225)

 

[Moederloos]

Nice calculation. I would however, dispute the Reduce factor. I think Eskom will be throwing some serious money at the maintenance problem because it is the only thing they have any real control over.

You can also add the Coega aluminum smelter. Guesstimate for completion is 2011 and power usage is 1500mW (1300mW continuous)

Also, I think you're being a bit too kind with the demand growth. y/y Growth has been as high as 4.7% at times. (http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/default/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&ArticleID=1518-25_2142225)

at 4.7% we would have
100.00 2007
104.70 2008
109.62 2009
114.77 2010
120.17 2011
125.82 2012
131.73 2013

My math can be dreadful at times, corrections will be appreciated.

 

[Ou grote]

Here's something that can be reduced :

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/default/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&ArticleID=1518-25_2254220

Zim's 'free' Eskom power ride
Jan 18 2008 11:12 AM
Cape Town - A trade union has revealed that Eskom exports the equivalent of an "entire power station" to SA's neighbours and that Zimbabwe does not pay for the power it receives.

Information obtained by Solidarity shows that Eskom currently exports 3 000MW of electricity to neighbouring countries. This almost equals the entire output of one SA power station.

This emerged after calls earlier this week for Eskom to disclose exactly how much electricity it supplies to SA's neighbours and at what rate. Questions were also raised as to whether the countries being supplied are subject to load shedding.

Solidarity spokesperson Jaco Kleynhans says that the exporting of electricity to neighbouring countries will have to be reviewed.

"Since Monday, the SA economy has suffered losses of millions of rands."

"The electricity shortage in our country has become so serious that Eskom should seriously consider systematically phasing out electricity supplies to neighbouring countries, while giving these countries the opportunity to find alternative solutions. If it were not for these exports, SA would have had amply electricity supplies for its own needs.

"We have also been informed that Zimbabwe does not pay for the electricity supplied to it by Eskom."

Public outcry

The FF-Plus on Thursday suggested that businesses should consider a "tax-withholding" programme if power cuts continue.

A Gauteng legislature member who speaks for the party on trade and industry matters, Jaco Mulder, called on business to force government to address the lack of capacity at Eskom.

"If the situation should continue, the business sector of SA should put pressure on the government and could even consider, as taxpayers, to start a tax-withholding programme as a last resort," Mulder said.

On Thursday Sapa reported that Solidarity handed two reports to the public protector outlining the bottlenecks at the power utility.

"Solidarity maintains that the electricity supply crisis results from a shortage of skilled workers at the company, caused by the large-scale departure of skilled people from Eskom and a lack of proper training in scarce skills."

"The problem is exacerbated by inadequate maintenance at Eskom power stations," the spokesperson told Sapa.

We should like Eskom to respond to these allegations and call on the electricity supplier to lay the facts before the SA public," Kleynhans said.

 

[Ricard]

at 4.7% we would have
100.00 2007
104.70 2008
109.62 2009
114.77 2010
120.17 2011
125.82 2012
131.73 2013

My math can be dreadful at times, corrections will be appreciated.

You havent factored in the Power stations being closed for for maintenance, or power grid failure due to cables and substations overloading.

 

[Moederloos]

You havent factored in the Power stations being closed for for maintenance, or power grid failure due to cables and substations overloading.

Yeah - I just reworked the demand increase column.
If my math is right, we will then need a 1/3 more stations than we have now just to keep at the current level.

 

[semiautomatix]

You havent factored in the Power stations being closed for for maintenance, or power grid failure due to cables and substations overloading.

Haven't factored in those saboteur bolts either.

 

[HavocXphere]

at 4.7% we would have

Well, the 4.7% is more of a record high. It won't average that high. (God help us if it ever does)

Even with kaspaas's slightly optimistic 2%, SA's future looks distinctly UPS/genny powered.

 

[icyrus]

Well, the 4.7% is more of a record high. It won't average that high. (God help us if it ever does)

Even with kaspaas's slightly optimistic 2%, SA's future looks distinctly UPS/genny powered.

If this level of load-shedding doesn't abate in the next month or so we will see negative growth by the end of the year and onwards.

 

[kaspaas]

If this level of load-shedding doesn't abate in the next month or so we will see negative growth by the end of the year and onwards.

Had the auditor this morning begging for early payment as many of his clients can't pay - eg the butcher has to pay his suppliers before he can pay his auditor. And the butcher has lost 10% of his trading time as well as a few tonnes of meat.

Agreed: We are on the way to rapidly shrinking economy with hyper-inflation.

 

[Moederloos]

Had the auditor this morning begging for early payment as many of his clients can't pay - eg the butcher has to pay his suppliers before he can pay his auditor. And the butcher has lost 10% of his trading time as well as a few tonnes of meat.

Agreed: We are on the way to rapidly shrinking economy with hyper-inflation.

Its as I said the other day in another thread - the first domino only needs to fall.
In this case the butcher, then his supplier, then that supplier cannot pay his staff, and so on and so on.

But - at least the Powers That Be have a new car.

 

[Geriatrix]

But - at least the Powers That Be have a new car.

How much was Eskoms CEOs and directors "performance bonuses" again last year?

 

[Abe]

The way I understand it, Eskom is currently producing about 30000mW and has a shortfall of about 3000mW. I would think that capacity would be much higher if they weren't repairing half of the power stations in the country but that is how it currently stands.

 

[HavocXphere]

Had the auditor this morning begging for early payment as many of his clients can't pay - eg the butcher has to pay his suppliers before he can pay his auditor. And the butcher has lost 10% of his trading time as well as a few tonnes of meat.

Agreed: We are on the way to rapidly shrinking economy with hyper-inflation.

Why hyper-inflation? (I'm not entirely up-to-date with my economic theory)

 

[Moederloos]

Why hyper-inflation? (I'm not entirely up-to-date with my economic theory)

hehe - did some research - look at this from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

# The most severe known incident of inflation was in Hungary after the end of World War II at 4.19 × 10^16 percent per month (prices double every 15 hours).
# More recently, Yugoslavia suffered 5 × 10^15 percent inflation per month (prices double every 16 hours) between 1 October 1993 and 24 January 1994.

Edited to put powers as "^" as the font superscript is not right