schitz011
Expert Member
So it's a case of making sure your voter base doesn't suffer at the expense of everyone else?
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Load Shedding - the all in one thread
- Thread starter nic777
- Start date
Peon
Expert Member
People, we all very emotional about this. So lets stop and try be rational and asses the situation.
Cathryn mentioned previously the economy angle. The US is approaching recession. Eskoms says stop developments and slow down.
What this means is that the economy is going to suffer greatly, worsened by global problems. You need to develop and grow to sustain. Now that process is going to be ruptured. Its a cascading effect. Im no expert at economical matters but what I understand is that everything is connected. And that when one match burns its lights another and so forth.
So you will have our economy going one way very badly very quickly and the global economy going another, we being unable to change to meet this global shift because we already in sh*t and we just invested a trillion Rand in building power stations that will take 10-15 years. On the other hand our economy: our life blood, will shrink so that being smaller might take the global hit better than a larger economy. Either way I understand it to be playing with fire.
In a nutshell, politicians and groups can jump and shout all they want, but its money and economy that makes the world go round. Assess the situation rationally and you realise the economy is going to be in serious trouble. Eskom *might* get to the finish line, only nothing waiting there for them.
Perhaps someone with a sound knowledge of economics of scale can deliberate on the effect this is will happen. Businesses closing etc,etc we understand. What finer details wont the current regime declare?
Cathryn mentioned previously the economy angle. The US is approaching recession. Eskoms says stop developments and slow down.
What this means is that the economy is going to suffer greatly, worsened by global problems. You need to develop and grow to sustain. Now that process is going to be ruptured. Its a cascading effect. Im no expert at economical matters but what I understand is that everything is connected. And that when one match burns its lights another and so forth.
So you will have our economy going one way very badly very quickly and the global economy going another, we being unable to change to meet this global shift because we already in sh*t and we just invested a trillion Rand in building power stations that will take 10-15 years. On the other hand our economy: our life blood, will shrink so that being smaller might take the global hit better than a larger economy. Either way I understand it to be playing with fire.
In a nutshell, politicians and groups can jump and shout all they want, but its money and economy that makes the world go round. Assess the situation rationally and you realise the economy is going to be in serious trouble. Eskom *might* get to the finish line, only nothing waiting there for them.
Perhaps someone with a sound knowledge of economics of scale can deliberate on the effect this is will happen. Businesses closing etc,etc we understand. What finer details wont the current regime declare?
Albereth
Honorary Master
Pbnr
I suggest that this whole power failure is about getting the Chinese in.
We had a moritorium on building more power stations but that ended some years back and no new power stations were built. For that the CEO of Ek's skom should be thrown in jail for sabotage along with Irwin, Phumzile and whoever the current minister of energy is.
T Bone apologised. Well that's admission of incompetence and he should be impeached, vote of no confidence. But we won't do that because we won't have any presidents (deputy of otherwise) and shudder at the thought of the brain surgeon JZ in charge for a few months before he goes off to jail.
Yeah, the Chinese are going to come to the rescue with quick build PB reactors or whatever other nonsense they'll trade for Africa.
You and I are just being made to be seriously inconvenienced so we'll ignore that we'll be giving away our birthright.
Also supports why we shut up when it comes to Zim. That little hell hole has been promised to Beijing and would have already gone that route if the inconvenient MDC hadn't popped up.
I suggest that this whole power failure is about getting the Chinese in.
We had a moritorium on building more power stations but that ended some years back and no new power stations were built. For that the CEO of Ek's skom should be thrown in jail for sabotage along with Irwin, Phumzile and whoever the current minister of energy is.
T Bone apologised. Well that's admission of incompetence and he should be impeached, vote of no confidence. But we won't do that because we won't have any presidents (deputy of otherwise) and shudder at the thought of the brain surgeon JZ in charge for a few months before he goes off to jail.
Yeah, the Chinese are going to come to the rescue with quick build PB reactors or whatever other nonsense they'll trade for Africa.
You and I are just being made to be seriously inconvenienced so we'll ignore that we'll be giving away our birthright.
Also supports why we shut up when it comes to Zim. That little hell hole has been promised to Beijing and would have already gone that route if the inconvenient MDC hadn't popped up.
nauseous_monkey
Expert Member
nauseous_monkey
Expert Member
Economic Implications of Conitnued load-shedding
I just spoke to a family member working in Johannesburg. I myself am not from there, but was very interested to hear his input on load-shedding from an purely financial point-of-view as he works for a big company there.
He here is the concerns around the water-cooler:
1.) Sanlam and other banking institutions are loosing R 5 billion Rand per day on load-shedding.
2.) Load-shedding happens for three hour periods at least twice a day in SA's economic heart (JHB city) at peak business and production hours, e.g. 9am - 12 pm and again 4pm to about 6pm (round about)
3.) Peak hour load-shedding is costing companies hundreds of millions of rands per day. When the power goes off all production-lines and business stands still.
4.) Load-shedding has now been estimated to continue for the next 5 years.
5.) After speaking to a friend which is an engineer working at Eskom he informs me that people know only half of the problem and that rolling black outs are expected every day!
So lets do some calculations... for everyday for five years banking institutions and companies will be loosing an estimated R 10 to 20 billion Everyday!
Let's assume 10 Billion is lost daily in JHB collectively by big business and banking companies
365 days per year X 5 yrs X 10 Billion (minimum) =
18250 Billion in losses MINIMUM for Business in JHB city.
Predictions for the future based on talking to economists and other business people is the following:
(Consider for a second that we Eskom cannot build new power plants to take care of power needs)
1.) Talks of 2010 going to Germany has risen ( I am not lying... and not trying to talk fear into you here... just a fact)
2.)Fuel prices will be increased.
3.) All products across the board will experience a rise in price (drastically)
4.) Electricity prices will rise by a minimum of 14 % in the next two months.
5.)A large amount of foreign business interests have already shown that it is not willing to invest in SA as a result of load-shedding. Besides large affects to our tourism industry.
Now that I have said all of this... here is Our Problem as South Africans.
South Africans are unwilling to stand their ground, they come to forums like here, the write to the newspapers, the complain on radio in the morning BUT THEY DO NOTHING!
If this happened in England or any other country... Eskom will be drowning in Picketers... Thousands of people would line the streets in protest with signs and loud-speakers. Eskom would most certainly not be treated as well as we are currently treating them. Neither would the Government.
We are giving Eskom and the Government way to little pressure, because inevitably we will be and currently are the victims of their incompetence.
Finally I would like to say: Do not take my word for it... ask a friend on the inside
I just spoke to a family member working in Johannesburg. I myself am not from there, but was very interested to hear his input on load-shedding from an purely financial point-of-view as he works for a big company there.
He here is the concerns around the water-cooler:
1.) Sanlam and other banking institutions are loosing R 5 billion Rand per day on load-shedding.
2.) Load-shedding happens for three hour periods at least twice a day in SA's economic heart (JHB city) at peak business and production hours, e.g. 9am - 12 pm and again 4pm to about 6pm (round about)
3.) Peak hour load-shedding is costing companies hundreds of millions of rands per day. When the power goes off all production-lines and business stands still.
4.) Load-shedding has now been estimated to continue for the next 5 years.
5.) After speaking to a friend which is an engineer working at Eskom he informs me that people know only half of the problem and that rolling black outs are expected every day!
So lets do some calculations... for everyday for five years banking institutions and companies will be loosing an estimated R 10 to 20 billion Everyday!
Let's assume 10 Billion is lost daily in JHB collectively by big business and banking companies
365 days per year X 5 yrs X 10 Billion (minimum) =
18250 Billion in losses MINIMUM for Business in JHB city.
Predictions for the future based on talking to economists and other business people is the following:
(Consider for a second that we Eskom cannot build new power plants to take care of power needs)
1.) Talks of 2010 going to Germany has risen ( I am not lying... and not trying to talk fear into you here... just a fact)
2.)Fuel prices will be increased.
3.) All products across the board will experience a rise in price (drastically)
4.) Electricity prices will rise by a minimum of 14 % in the next two months.
5.)A large amount of foreign business interests have already shown that it is not willing to invest in SA as a result of load-shedding. Besides large affects to our tourism industry.
Now that I have said all of this... here is Our Problem as South Africans.
South Africans are unwilling to stand their ground, they come to forums like here, the write to the newspapers, the complain on radio in the morning BUT THEY DO NOTHING!
If this happened in England or any other country... Eskom will be drowning in Picketers... Thousands of people would line the streets in protest with signs and loud-speakers. Eskom would most certainly not be treated as well as we are currently treating them. Neither would the Government.
We are giving Eskom and the Government way to little pressure, because inevitably we will be and currently are the victims of their incompetence.
Finally I would like to say: Do not take my word for it... ask a friend on the inside
It seems Africa will always have a master. China seems to be the new master. It may sound crazy to say there is method (a plan) in all this Eskom madness ... but looking at how things are panning out (collapsing/disintegrating/deteriorating) in SA these days I start to get the impression that some crazy theories/warnings of the past were not that crazy at all.
The one thing that stands out for me is the complete failure of policies that promise to give away stuff to unproductive masses to make all seem equal. The cake can produce only so many slices and if there are more mounths to feed than the number of slices the cake can offer then you may just as well give the cake to the dogs. Reality is a b!tch ... and political ideologies that fail to look this b!tch in the eye is doomed for failure.
The one thing that stands out for me is the complete failure of policies that promise to give away stuff to unproductive masses to make all seem equal. The cake can produce only so many slices and if there are more mounths to feed than the number of slices the cake can offer then you may just as well give the cake to the dogs. Reality is a b!tch ... and political ideologies that fail to look this b!tch in the eye is doomed for failure.
Moederloos
Honorary Master
The above does not even take the skill loss into account.
I would think this would have a major escalation effect on your straight line calculations.
What is my personal economic effect for example - I am not a super star, just an average dude - but with 30 years of education and experience. What cost when I pack up and leave?
I would think this would have a major escalation effect on your straight line calculations.
What is my personal economic effect for example - I am not a super star, just an average dude - but with 30 years of education and experience. What cost when I pack up and leave?
Moederloos
Honorary Master
How many South African's does it take to change the light?
Two - one to get the matches and the other to hold the candle.
Two - one to get the matches and the other to hold the candle.
Moederloos
Honorary Master
Sigh - I was thinking last night of the pro-ANC camp a few months ago.
How they were justifying shortages to the rapid growth of the economy, and how the shortages themselves proved how well we are doing (suppliers cannot keep pace with the exploding market place blah blah).
Well, here's to progress! Now, our economy is crippled by these shortages.
This whole thing smacks of the isolated farmstead, that has a huge feast, lasting days, just after the final harvest of the year. They all proclaim how well they are doing because they have all this food - and they eat and eat, throw whole joints of beef to the dogs, and party like there is no tomorrow.
Except, there is a tomorrow - and a whole 90 odd more after that one. And they are all winter mornings - and nothing grows...
How they were justifying shortages to the rapid growth of the economy, and how the shortages themselves proved how well we are doing (suppliers cannot keep pace with the exploding market place blah blah).
Well, here's to progress! Now, our economy is crippled by these shortages.
This whole thing smacks of the isolated farmstead, that has a huge feast, lasting days, just after the final harvest of the year. They all proclaim how well they are doing because they have all this food - and they eat and eat, throw whole joints of beef to the dogs, and party like there is no tomorrow.
Except, there is a tomorrow - and a whole 90 odd more after that one. And they are all winter mornings - and nothing grows...
Albereth
Honorary Master
I also think that South Africa is used for all sorts of experiments in social engineeering. Look at the education system as an example. Or whether people would be stupid enough to vote in criminals. Or if people would be dumb enough to believe garlic cures AIDS (we all know it stops vampires from biting you).
I may be paranoid but that doesn't mean that they aren't out to get us.
I may be paranoid but that doesn't mean that they aren't out to get us.
Moederloos
Honorary Master
Already given away - does not bother me, anymore.
Debbie
Banned
Yesterday: Load-sh1tted 6pm-9pm and AGAIN 12am-2am
sand_man
Honorary Master
It's going to be a very scary winter, once Escom has the public used to 2 hour power cuts they will increase to 3 hours and in 5 years time we will be having 6 hour power cuts at a time... I still think Escom needs to employ some Americans to come and fix what they've broken. The yanks are a lot of things but slow is not one of them...
marine1
Honorary Master
Yeah the big bad Americans
ajax
Executive Member
12am-2am???? How the hell can there be a load at that time? On the poweralert website they show the load vs. the time of day, and the load rapidly drops off after 11pm.
Could be quite romantic with a few candles.
Moederloos
Honorary Master
load shedding at the moment - on a Saturday morning nogal
What's going on now bothers me. I have a wife and two kids - and these days one is constantly bombarded with the question: How much longer should we stay here? Friends of mine are emigrating to Australia as we speak and they couldn't have had better confirmation of this move than the current load shedding. How many people will remain here in the next 5 to 7 years of expected and growing darkness? The load shedding is one disaster ... but what about the disaster of SA losing skilled people en mass?
But, if it is true that China (or some other new slave master) is waiting to swoop down on the country to "save" it from the brink of disaster ... just before 2010 (how convenient!) ... then I guess Gov is not worried at all. China's biggest export product in future will be highly educated/skilled people (and not just plastic toys). Its far better to export money generating "machines" (sending earnings back home) than plastic junk.
I can now understand why Mbeki want's to stay on longer. No president would want to leave his post with a country in such a terrible mess, not having enough of an opportunity to make it better. What a disaster of a legacy to leave behind.