Lonmin - What do people think

My hope is that it gets back to a very respectable R20per share. Which is half the previous years value ( which should still be extremely poor for lonmin ) but could yield a 400% return for me.

Or just get to R10 then I have doubled my money.
 
So far I have a nice healthy 44% return on 980 shares, people who bought at the bottom must be smiling. Oh how I wish I had the balls to buy 10,000 shares.
 
Looks like my hunch was correct, stock trading at R9.05 now and heading back into normal territory. This trade made me a 82% return so far.

Now to look for the next diamond in the rough.
 
Dr Who said:
Looks like my hunch was correct, stock trading at R9.05 now and heading back into normal territory. This trade made me a 82% return so far.

Now to look for the next diamond in the rough.
Click to expand...

How about a "Daimond in the rough" thread?
 
Yip I know, Oh if I had sold at the top. But that my friend is hindsight. SO all I can do is watch and wait.

As poor as its doing the sad thing is its still better than my other shares.
 
Sebulba said:
Will second this, need the people with know how to contribute
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People with the "Know How" tend not to discuss these matters. I've always wondered why. I think I know one of the reasons now.

I've started looking in to the Steam market (Yeah I know, all virtual crap and the market prices are extremely unstable) and have put a lot of time in to reading about trends and when some items will go up, and why others go down.

When I say a lot of time, I mean a LOT. Articles and tips differ on every single article and in the end, you gain the experience and "know how" through trial and error.

The problem comes in when others ask you for tips. I try to be a nice guy and give some tips but to teach someone in the workings of a market is close to impossible. Plus...the person you gave a tip to a week ago is now super angry at you because it was a bad tip.

Experts tend not to give tips as they get backlash from it. Also...the time it took for him to become an expert (If time is money, so to speak) cost quite a bundle, don't expect free advice.

Lonmin did GREAT before the Marikana incident. Doubt any of the experts have foreseen that happening. So many factors to take in to consideration.
 
Dr Who said:
Yip I know, Oh if I had sold at the top. But that my friend is hindsight. SO all I can do is watch and wait.

As poor as its doing the sad thing is its still better than my other shares.
Click to expand...

I'm not too concerned (granted I have less than a 1000 bet), it'll eventually come back above R10. I will only sell if it goes above R20. I recon the sell off is likely profit taking
 
My aim for this is to ask the question what is happening with the stock market? We are in the era where significant wealth has been created by IT/Tech companies (Naspers, 10cent, Google, facebook, twitter, etc) which have huge P/E multiples with no hope in sight of reductions.

We also have the resources with are fundamentally broken reducing demand and price per ton with an ever increasing wage bill which is becoming less productive. A perfect storm for catastrophic failure. However there is one difference between the 2 which I see playing out now:

We like but dont need Tech, but resources are needed (just in abundance due to reduced demand). If the resource bear is the same as the .com bubble of 2000 then as expected values have plummeted. However unlike the .com bubble mines will never just disappear as they have valuable rights to minerals in the ground would can be left for a better time. So when you get to the real bottom of the bear ( Lonmin etc ) which is now 1/20 of its peak and so low in value it is worth less than 1 of its shafts on the open market, how then do market forces work?

Are the mines like super conductors which when chilled to extremely low temperatures start acting different? If so, those with big balls and money to gamble, may score big but for the rest of up we will wait and watch. Like a bullet train of wealth passing us by.

All I can say is that in last month or so I have never asked why so often nor have I questioned my approach so much. On days when I gain 82% I scream and say what if? But those days are quickly eroded when it dropped back to lows of R6. I think there has been some serious money already made and lost, lets hope i end up on the winning side. If not then my Xmas present to myself might just be 1600 worthless Lonmin shares and a funny story to tell my grand kids one day.
 
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Dr Who said:
Hi Gezza

My aim for this is to ask the question what is happening with the stock market? We are in the era where significant wealth has been created by IT/Tech companies (Naspers, 10cent, Google, facebook, twitter, etc) which have huge P/E multiples with no hope in sight of reductions.

We also have the resources with are fundamentally broken reducing demand and price per ton with an ever increasing wage bill which is becoming less productive. A perfect storm for catastrophic failure. However there is one difference between the 2 which I see playing out now:

We like but dont need Tech, but resources are needed (just in abundance due to reduced demand). If the resource bear is the same as the .com bubble of 2000 then as expected values have plummeted. However unlike the .com bubble mines will never just disappear as they have valuable rights to minerals in the ground would can be left for a better time. So when you get to the real bottom of the bear ( Lonmin etc ) which is now 1/20 of its peak and so low in value it is worth less than 1 of its shafts on the open market, how then do market forces work?

Are the mines like super conductors which when chilled to extremely low temperatures start acting different? If so, those with big balls and money to gamble, may score big but for the rest of up we will wait and watch. Like a bullet train of wealth passing us by.

All I can say is that in last month or so I have never asked why so often nor have I questioned my approach so much. On days when I gain 82% I scream and say what if? But those days are quickly eroded when it dropped back to lows of R6. I think there has been some serious money already made and lost, lets hope i end up on the winning side. If not then my Xmas present to myself might just be 1600 worthless Lonmin shares and a funny story to tell my grand kids one day.
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Thanks, but why did you aim the reply to me :confused:? I'm not the OP.

Good advice though and thanks!
 
I think I lost my train of thought first started talking to you then it became broad discussion point. I have edited it.
 
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