Lonmin - What do people think

This all means that far from being a concrete plan to generate suitable returns for long-suffering shareholders, this a plan based on hope. Lonmin shareholders are basically betting R5.7bn on the flip of a coin: heads – platinum prices recover and your incremental capital (ie your R9.84/share) remains intact, tails – you lose (again).

Enough is enough

So my advice to Lonmin shareholders? Don’t throw good money after bad. Unless and until the company can show it is profitable at these prices, there is no ways Lonmin justifies further investment. So take the R5.7bn you would have taken to the casino and placed on red, and rather buy any one of Anglo Platinum/Implats/Northam shares, or the platinum ETF.
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And the stock trades at R2.04. I'll throw in R100 and get away with 48 shares. With rights issue coming and also possible share consolidation after rights issue, We will end up with less shares than what you actually bought. I just pray the share moves up to R4.10 for me to Break-Even.
 
I fail to see why people buy resources/commodities as they are only for trading and not investing. They have not only been in a bear market for some time but individual stocks within are exposed to strikes, accidents and the price of the commodity.
Look at KIO. Another example of a failing stock yet people think it is cheap and buy it only to find their money going down the drain.
Stick with industrial stocks and you will never loose on the long term. This has been proven over and over for many years.
 
SauRoNZA said:
I bought at R2.20 this morning with a mere R250 so I got 113 shares.

Worst case I lose R250, but if they even recover slightly it's an easy R5000 in my pocket.

If they by some miracle recover to 2008 levels...highly unlikely...it's a huge chunk of change.
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Where did you buy if you don't mind me asking?
 
Oopsie said:
I fail to see why people buy resources/commodities as they are only for trading and not investing. They have not only been in a bear market for some time but individual stocks within are exposed to strikes, accidents and the price of the commodity.
Look at KIO. Another example of a failing stock yet people think it is cheap and buy it only to find their money going down the drain.
Stick with industrial stocks and you will never loose on the long term. This has been proven over and over for many years.
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And that seems to be what many here are doing, "trading"/gambling. Proof:

Worst case I lose R250, but if they even recover slightly it's an easy R5000 in my pocket.
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Pegasus said:
Link to this proof?
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There are no links but the proof is in the charts. I cannot give you a link to my charts here.
It is a known fact that most fund managers cannot beat their own index they are trying to beat. This very fact has been shown on investment media.

Perhaps some like Coronation has done so but even they will not have beaten the INDI 25. This would be be the top index to beat.
They cannot do so as they are restricted by the FSB to not have too many equity stocks in managed portfolios.

If you have not had a return of 25% plus over the past 6 years then you should consider a change to ETF's. Managed funds such as UT's are so expensive and will cost you on fees.
 
supersunbird said:
And that seems to be what many here are doing, "trading"/gambling. Proof:
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Oh you are definitely right it's very much gambling in this case.

In fact whenever I buy single shares I considering It gambling.

My investment money goes into ETF's.
 
I have been watching this company / share for a while now. I almost too the plunge when it sunk into the "30's". The more I read about the company the dimmer their future looks.

The rights issue they are appealing and trying to force shareholders to buy is a reflection of their desperation. The reality is that this isn't going to change their fortunes. It will only delay what I see as being the inevitable. Sadly, so long as the platinum price remains depressed, the less likely they are to emerge from this downward spiral. For most of the platinum mines their only possible solution is to mechanise. The methods they presently use to mine costs substantially more than their return.

Essentially, this is another ABIL. It's likely to going into liquidation sooner rather than later.
 
And slightly OT, I had reason recently to ride around the backroads of Rustenberg midweek.
A very sad sight.....hopeless souls everywhere.
 
Oopsie said:
Here you go. Scroll down to my post with the chart and you will see a 5 year chart that clearly indicates a 40% pa gain without any dividends reinvested. I rest my case now.
http://shareforum.co.za/shares/how-does-the-satrix-indi-do-so-well/45/
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And currently over the past 5 years you would have been better off in the Old Mutual Global Equity Fund which returned 275% vs the Coronation Industrial Fund which came second and only produced a 199% return. And over a 7 years period its switched around and the Coronation Industrial Fund is a clear winner.

You are said industrial shares, not industrial unit trusts/ETFs.

Oh, and 9 of the Top 10 Funds in the past 5 years have been Global funds (7 Equity and 2 Property).

Anyway is, one can't just work on past figures and past graphs and know they will be right in the future. If you have to invest now, you wont get those past returns, you will only get the returns yet to be made in the future and you will only know what they have been when you are in that future.

If one is investing, one must diversify. To get easy diversification on can go into managed or passive index unit trusts/ETFs. Sure, make that local equity exposure in the industrials, but don't forget the property and foreign allocations.

If one is trading, looks a bit like gambling to me if its the average man in the street, since one is playing against the big boys with fancy systems. So don't ask me about trading.

Oh yes... Case Dismissed!

*bangs gavel*
 
On my unit trust/etf portfolio, I have the bdx world top, followed by the satrix indi (which has over overtaken the coronation top 20 at 3rd). I am losing money on the divi (which was a star performer in the past and recommended by many an advisor). Yeah history don't mean nothing over a period.
 
R13... said:
On my unit trust/etf portfolio, I have the bdx world top, followed by the satrix indi (which has over overtaken the coronation top 20 at 3rd). I am losing money on the divi (which was a star performer in the past and recommended by many an advisor). Yeah history don't mean nothing over a period.
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Satrix indi was a rockstar over the past 3 months or so. I made some bucks!
 
R13... said:
On my unit trust/etf portfolio, I have the bdx world top, followed by the satrix indi (which has over overtaken the coronation top 20 at 3rd). I am losing money on the divi (which was a star performer in the past and recommended by many an advisor). Yeah history don't mean nothing over a period.
Click to expand...

Coronation Top 20? Spit! :mad:

At least the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund (I split the investment between those 2) declines aren't nearly as big as the Top 20 falls. Dividend returns between the 2 are about even though.
 
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