E-tolling now an election issue
http://www.fm.co.za/politics/2013/09/19/e-tolling-now-an-election-issue
The political sensitivity that has delayed electronic tolling on Gauteng's freeways isn't compromising the SA National Road Agency's (Sanral) finances just yet, CEO Nazir Alli insists. And he says there is no danger that Sanral will default on its debt repayments.
This is despite the agency being slapped with a credit rating downgrade by Moody's this month. But Moody's has also placed Sanral's credit rating under review, pending a further downgrade. This time more is at stake.
Sanral needs to cough up a massive R5bn to repay debt. Its R1,48bn, NRA013 bond matures on October 31 2013. A second bond, the NRA014, matures on April 30 2014.
Without revenue from tolling, investors should be concerned about getting their money back. Sanral last tried to raise money on the bond market in September 2011. The bond auction was a disaster, leading the agency to abandon further attempts to borrow on capital markets until tolling begins.
Moody's view is that Sanral's deteriorating cash flow situation puts its ability to meet operating expenses and service its high debt levels at risk. The problem is the prolonged delay in Sanral's ability to collect e-toll revenue to pay for the costly upgrade to Gauteng's freeways.
Sanral's debt had soared to R36,2bn by March 2013, up from R6,2bn in 2007. This increase is mainly due to the Gauteng investment. Moody's estimates that its debt will rise to R39bn by March 2014.
E-tolling is expected to generate R250m-R300m/month.
With strong resistance from the public and opposition parties, e-tolling has become a pre-election rallying point. Government has endorsed the user-pays principle as a means of financing infrastructure, but allowing tolling to begin is becoming more difficult the closer SA gets to elections.
Sanral's public reputation is in tatters, even if investors have always heaped praise on it.
And the headaches continue to compound. This week, Alli was also left to defend a R1,1m rise in his salary. And R3,3bn in irregular expenditure has been flagged for attention.
For tolling to begin, President Jacob Zuma must approve the Transport Laws & Related Matters Amendment Bill. It already has the approval of both houses of parliament but there is speculation that Zuma may withhold his signature until after the elections.
The effect on Sanral's finances could be disastrous.
Gauteng's upgraded freeways make up just 1% of Sanral's total road portfolio (tolled roads are about 16% of its network of 19704km). But the Moody's downgrade is linked to its financial health, which is failing fast because of its inability to realise any revenue from such a massive investment. The first phase of the Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project cost R20bn.
Moody's analyst Kenneth Morare is concerned about the implications of rising debt: "Inability to generate e-toll revenue will likely prompt the company to further increase its financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt as a substitute for e-toll revenue will lead to even higher debt service costs for Sanral."
Alli agrees, saying the late start to e-tolling means that Sanral will have to pay much more than it initially expected to.
But, he says, Sanral will use short-term loans to maintain the stability of its cash flow until e-tolling begins. It has national treasury's approval to do that.
"We are negotiating with all the commercial banks and even asset managers like Old Mutual and Stanlib for loans spanning one to three years. Negotiations continue but we should know where we stand within two weeks."
Using short-term loans is within its mandate, as long as it is within the treasury-approved borrowing limit of R47,9bn.
What has changed, says Alli, is the tenure of the debt. Two years have passed since Sanral was last able to borrow using bonds, and at a reasonable cost, he says. "Investors just won't lend us money anymore."
He says Sanral's government guarantee (about R38bn of its debt is guaranteed) will help to secure bridging finance.
Alli believes that should Sanral really require it, government will step in to provide some funding. In February 2012, it supported Sanral with a R5,75bn cash injection.
He is adamant that Sanral will not default on its repayments. "Government has never allowed a state enterprise to default. I believe it will step in if it has to."
RMB credit analyst Elena Ilkova says the consequence of a default is far too risky to be an option. The domino effect on other state enterprises - and their ability to borrow on capital markets - could cripple government, a risk it is unlikely to take.
Sanral's credit rating is still within reasonable limits, Ilkova says. However, another downgrade could be damaging. Many asset managers, including the Public Investment Corp, hold Sanral bonds in their portfolios. If they choose to sell to pre-empt the effects of a further downgrade, the spreads on Sanral's bonds will widen. One major sale has the potential to rerate the entire bond.
The fact that the NRA013 is so close to maturity makes it unlikely they will sell, but Ilkova says other bonds could be affected.
Despite the uncertainty, the auditor-general gave Sanral's financial results for the year to March 2013 an unqualified report. It says Sanral has indicated sufficiently that the delay in the commencement of tolling has not affected its financial health.
Sanral has cash and cash equivalents of R4,4bn, down from R9,2bn in the previous year. The 2012 cash balance reflects the R5,75bn treasury grant. But the drop is also a result of no toll income and its limited ability to borrow. Without the loans it now seeks, it will be forced to use its cash reserves to service and repay debt.
It is that pressure on its cash flow that has alarmed Moody's.
Sanral's board of directors, however, is not concerned. In its year-end directors' report, they state: "The directors are confident that this is an interim phase on a portion (201km) of the Sanral business, and not a material uncertainty."
Ultimately, Ilkova says local banks wouldn't be averse to extending short-term loans to Sanral. "But this is merely postponing the inevitable questions, which are about government policy." More uncertainty could be Sanral's death knell.
And as government explores investment in other sectors, most notably water and energy infrastructure which it wants users to fund, policy uncertainty could have more far-reaching consequences.
Already, Alli is well aware that future toll road projects, like the N1-N2 Winelands project, are at risk of never getting off the ground.