Firstly, I commend MWEB for having the guts to take this stance, its a very tough stance to take and the effects of it will be rather interesting.
There are a few possibilities as to what could happen here.
A.) The other ISPs back down and peer with them, either via PNI (Private Network Interconnect) or via one of the exchanges. This would be the ideal situation in a perfect world.
B.) The other ISPs refuse to peer with them, and the traffic starts to flow via international pipes, latencies go up, and potentially traffic congestion on international pipes happens. The extent of congestion would be interesting to see, and is going to be very largely dependant on the traffic ratios between MWeb and those ISPs. If Mweb is pushing large amounts of content, the other ISPs are more likely to back down (Since most South African networks tend to be eyeball, that is, they pull more than they push and they have capacity available in the outbound direction on the international circuits, and hence can absorb the change). If Mweb is pushing it however, the other ISPs will have to get the content from the internationally, that will congest already heavily loaded international links and the chances are Mweb will win.
C.) The other ISPs decide to play hardball and simply blackhole Mweb on their international links, effectively segmenting them and denying Mweb users access to their networks entirely (and vice versa)
In the event of C happening, who wins will come down to which sides customers scream the loudest.
Again, this whole situation however goes to further highlight what I said in the article published by My Broadband on the 23rd of January this year. Content is king, because he who has content dictates the extent of the peering relationship. If you have the content, you will get peered, if you don't, you're likely to end up paying for it. I would wonder if other services (and I haven't bothered to look) would be affected by this (News24/Media24/Other Naspers services), because if they are, it would certainly strongly swing this fight in favour of Mweb.
I might point out that (C) has happened before in global internet terms, when Telia and Cogent de-peered, and even though Telia was buying transit from 701 (I believe), there was a blackhole in place and the two networks refused to talk to each other on a global scale. This caused a rather large segmentation of the net. Another example of a major de-peering battle was when Cogent and Level3 depeered for a while, and since both are global tier-1 and don't buy transit, the internet got rather effectively split in two for people who werent multi-homed.
The peering wars have been common place in international markets for years, it was only a matter of time before they began here, and I don't think this will be the last such fight, we may see a lot of this to come in the future.
TENET as an organization by the way has always taken the stance that it will peer with any legitimate organization with its own ASN and its own IP blocks, providing that the peering party meets us at a recognized exchange point, or alternatively covers the costs involved in reaching us at a point that isn't a recognized exchange point where we have presence. We believe very strongly in free and open peering.
The other question involved in all of this is what is going to happen about paid peering in this country. At current, I'm not aware of any paid peering relationships, generally ISPs share the costs of interconnecting circuits, but not on actual traffic. I may be wrong on this however, as such paid peering agreements are generally fairly veiled in secrecy. Personally though, I think that paid peering is a very flawed model, and would resist any form of paid peering with anyone.
Interesting times.... roll on the peering fights that have been occuring world wide for years
