Myshares - new site

bchip

bchip

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Hi

Welcome back from the holidays, hopefully you had a good rest.

You might have noticed that the website has an exciting new look.
Weve been hard at work during the holidays trying to get everything up and running.
There are still some features we are working on but all round theres a lot of changes.

Besides the look and feel here are some of the changes:
The site has several sections
- Blogging: The site has been split into 2 blogging parts.
(Market blogs and System blogs)
Market blogging are posts on the market, it could be fundamental discussions,
technical discussions, or even investment focused (like property or bonds)
Blogs can even just be video posts, for example all ETC trading club videos
have their own posts and all previous videos have been listed.

- System blogging are posts regarding systems trading, results, system ideas, etc

The big kicker on this one is that ANYONE can post.
The site is not limited only to my posts anymore.
All posts from anyone will be loaded, however SPAM will not be tolerated.

A future feature will be that whenever a blogger you "follow" makes a new post
then you will be notified via email if you are registered.
We are currently still working on this.

There are sections where both courses and events can be posted
if a group or company would like to do so.
So far under courses there are only 2 courses loaded both free and both worth every cent.
The courses section also allows a member to give the course a rating,
so you can share your experience, if you think something was worthwhile.
We are currently in talks with more traders loading their courses.

Events is a section just to let other traders know about any webinars or
get-togethers, what the logistics are and what the costs are

If you do come across any errors on the site please let us know.

Regards
 
Not to be a d1ck, but don't you already have a few threads about your website?

Can't you just post in one of those instead of creating a new thread every time?

I don't wanna say you're spamming this forum, but its getting pretty close.
 
Sorry, Im not 100% how the thread thing works.

In future I'll keep it more to one thread.
 
Nice post on Buffet. He's definitely the exception.

With platforms like EE its becoming very easy for newbies to invest in individual shares. This can be very dangerous if they don't have enough diversification and a proper asset allocation.

I've been playing around with individual shares via EE over the last few months. On a students income so not a significant amount of money invested.

I have a couple of different "portfolios" with completely different risk profiles. Overall I'm down just under 6% ATM. I do have some quality shares that will definitely increase over the long term, so not too worried for now. I'm investing for the long term, not trading so I don't mind the ups and down.

For everyday people I'd say index funds (Top 40's, etc) are probably the way to go for equity exposure. Its easy to buy and the fees are relatively low. The returns will hopefully beat inflation in the long term.
 
Shalin_ZN said:
Nice post on Buffet. He's definitely the exception.
Click to expand...

Thank you.

Shalin_ZN said:
This can be very dangerous if they don't have enough diversification and a proper asset allocation.
Click to expand...

Diversification is such a weird topic for me. On the one hand I understand that proper diversification
saves you from bad events happening, on the other hand if I put all my eggs in 1 basket and that was the best basket
then I would get the best return...ie by diversifying Im moving away from the best possible return.
...Then again you only know what the best return wouldve been till after its happened.

It seems its one of those necessary evils, however Ive made it work for me, not just financially.
I find that one of the reasons one cannot truly quantify everything in the markets is because no-one can quantify emotional capital.
Thats why these CAPM models are a waste of time...numbers dont take emotions into consideration,
and emotions are a lot more important than numbers, emotions can kills, numbers cant.
 
Last edited:
Shalin_ZN said:
I have a couple of different "portfolios" with completely different risk profiles. Overall I'm down just under 6% ATM. I do have some quality shares that will definitely increase over the long term, so not too worried for now. I'm investing for the long term, not trading so I don't mind the ups and down.
Click to expand...

I understand testing ideas, but have you considered that this approach might only really tell you
its results years from now? Personally I find that too slow.
One of the things you have to be careful off is to look at the results through different types of markets,
for example small caps look incredible in bull markets/end of bull markets, where as during a crash period
they are difficult to predict and get out of (through liquidity).

Just a thought.
 
Latest news update

Tweets to note, 2 blogs posted, new courses loaded onto the site
and some events coming up.

If you have any experience with these courses it would be great sharing any comments or ratings with other traders.
To rate a course you need to login, click on that course, scroll down to the bottom of the course and place your ratings.

http://myshares.co.za/wp/2016/02/14/email-14-feb-2016/
 
bchip said:
Article on TFSA and options available by a new contributor to the site.
Definitely worth the read.
Deadline for TFSA coming up on end of Feb.

http://myshares.co.za/wp/2016/02/15/tax-free-savings-account-making-best/
Click to expand...
Couple of issues:

1. You can buy and sell within the TFSA. The article makes it sounds like once you've bought an ETF in it you are stuck with it.

2. Always pay of debt, get insurance and then invest regardless of income bracket. If your income is high enough where you are saving more than R30k a year it may be worth putting your higher dividend yielding ETFs in there.

3. TFSA isn't completely tax free. DBXWD etc. pay foreign dividend taxes

4. What's the difference between Stock Brokers and ETFs in your article?

5. Unless you are very close to retirements, ETFs are probably still a good bet. What you'll need to do ius switch to Saver ones that track government bonds etc. and decrease your equity exposure.

6. When you say people would have been smarter putting their money in a fixed deposit you are taking a very short term view. A TFSA is a long term product running over decades (if you are in your 20's you are looking at cashing out close to 2040 or 2050). The current YTD figures mean nothing in that context.

Things worth mentioning:

1. Uninvested cash lying in your TFSA is gaining tax free interest (this be true for EE)

2. There are specialised ETFs from ABSA called MAPPSG and MAPPSP. They are geared for growth and protection respectively. The MAPPSG is 75% equities, 20% bonds and 5% cash whereas the MAPPSP is only 40% equitiues.

Combine these with DBXWD and you have a fairly diverse portfolio (30% DBXWD, 70% MAPPSG and when you are close to retirement 10% DBXWD, 90% MAPPSP). These are just numbers I'm grabbing out of thin air and people should dfo their due diligence and research it themselves though.
 
Thanks for the feedback, I'll forward it on to the author.

Just one or 2 comments on my side that I can maybe add

Hamster said:
2. Always pay of debt, get insurance and then invest regardless of income bracket.
Click to expand...
Agreed


Hamster said:
6. When you say people would have been smarter putting their money in a fixed deposit you are taking a very short term view.
A TFSA is a long term product running over decades
Click to expand...
I disagree with this though...did you know that bonds have outperformed shares over the past 10 years?

Hamster said:
5. Unless you are very close to retirements, ETFs are probably still a good bet.
Click to expand...
Tell that to the Japanese who hit a peak in 1989 and till today havent made new highs.
Fair enough you can argue that but we are different because were in a high inflationary environment
but thats not really a win in anybodys books...saying were winning because were losing so much.
 
bchip said:
I disagree with this though...did you know that bonds have outperformed shares over the past 10 years?
Click to expand...

No I did not and I'm going to have to ask you to back that up with a link or graph.
 
Hamster said:
No I did not and I'm going to have to ask you to back that up with a link or graph.
Click to expand...

Sure, no problem.

Here is a link to an article
https://twitter.com/mySharesCoZa/status/698935421473054720

but I managed to do my own testing on it a couple of months ago (Dec, I think?)

To make sure we arent talking past one another,
- Nikkei - bonds wouldve outperformed because their market has been declining over the past 25 years
https://twitter.com/mySharesCoZa/status/636541353250410496

- Eurozone - bonds wouldve outperformed as they have been in a negative environment, same as USA
- also the ZIRP policy

- South Africa - Im not able to find a bond fund with good information and dividends available,
- I dont believe SA bonds wouldve outperformed stocks in the past 10 years,
but going forward with certain strategies I believe bonds will outperform the next 10 years

And finally where I can show some solid research would be on the US.
Here's a tweet of my testing results
https://twitter.com/mySharesCoZa/status/691975103605821441


Basically US municipal bonds, corporate bonds and high yield bonds have outperformed the US stock markets
with corporate bonds provinding a 7% return and the stock markets a 4% over the same period.

The data was gathered from Blackrock iShares

Go to this link and simply click on 10 years on the chart
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
 
bchip said:
- South Africa - Im not able to find a bond fund with good information and dividends available,
- I dont believe SA bonds wouldve outperformed stocks in the past 10 years,
but going forward with certain strategies I believe bonds will outperform the next 10 years
Click to expand...

Given that your article deals with TFSAs in South Africa: bonds have not outperfmed equities.

In fact if you look at the NFGOVI and NFILBI you'll see that they are barely keeping up with inflation (NFILBI being inflation linked)
 
Wow...just wow.

So I mention a strategy with proof that has proven to have outperformed the average investor in 3 major economies and explicitly mention that it didn't work in the past however it could work in the future as the economic environment changes...

And all you got from that was
"it didnt work in the past in SA??"

Wow
 
Saying that something could work in the future means absolutely nothing. There's no track record of it working.
 
bchip said:
Wow...just wow.

So I mention a strategy with proof that has proven to have outperformed the average investor in 3 major economies and explicitly mention that it didn't work in the past however it could work in the future as the economic environment changes...

And all you got from that was
"it didnt work in the past in SA??"

Wow
Click to expand...
Your article is about TFSA in South Africa. Other economies and markets are irrelevant.

If you can't take opposing views or criticism ask the mods to change the thread title to state so.
 
bchip said:
Diversification is such a weird topic for me. On the one hand I understand that proper diversification
saves you from bad events happening, on the other hand if I put all my eggs in 1 basket and that was the best basket
then I would get the best return...ie by diversifying Im moving away from the best possible return.
...Then again you only know what the best return wouldve been till after its happened.
Click to expand...
That's because diversification is the wrong term. Many new investors hear the word diversification and think that investing in different stocks means they are safe from losing. They aren't. If you invest without doing your homework you are at risk and it's akin to gambling. That doesn't change whether you have 1 stock or 10. If most of your stocks are performing badly you still end up losing.

The correct strategy is hedging. What this means is that you pick stocks that offset one another. As an example my main stocks are in SGL and JSE. If one sector is performing badly it's usually because money is flowing to the other sector. If one goes down the other usually goes up or both goes up. It's only happened a couple of days where both goes down a bit but overall they both go up.
 
Swa said:
That's because diversification is the wrong term. Many new investors hear the word diversification and think that investing in different stocks means they are safe from losing. They aren't. If you invest without doing your homework you are at risk and it's akin to gambling. That doesn't change whether you have 1 stock or 10. If most of your stocks are performing badly you still end up losing.
Click to expand...

I agree with you, but I was speaking more in general modelling terms.
For example if I have 10 trading systems ready, 2 of them perform extremely well and 2 perform so so.
I would have to trade the 2 poorer performers for the sake of diversification.
So your moving money away from your best systems to put it into your poor performers which sounds illogical,
but on the same time it could be that right now those are your best performers and the poor performers
could be entering into a new market where it does well.

Its all just really weird to me though, the logic behind it...
 
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