I did say mid to high end, I have a 9070xt I would be replacing it with a theoretical 10070xt for instance.
Why would it be silly you always have the latest shaders, frame rate, dlss/fsr etc and doesn't cost anymore or less. Would just be a sell one day and card arrives a day or 2 later once a year.
Not really, DX12 API has been around for 10 years and only recently updated to DX 12 ultimate. Current shader model 6.8, it is supported in at least 3 previous generations. DX12 is a long term API and there is no definitive word whether it will be updated to DX13 anytime soon.
With the current average game development cycle of 4–5 years a game, game studios lock down a specific version of the engine they are using to be able to support a larger sample base of hardware and features. It is unlikely they will exclusively support a new shader model only and generally support multiple shader models, it will have a min supported shader model.
In other words, you have nothing to gain from upgrading to every generation, other than burn a hole in your wallet, every 3rd generation is a lot more practical, and gains to be had will be more substantial.
Additionally, GPU and chip shortages are coming to an end and the secondhand market will also cover at some point too. In theory secondhand GPUs should depreciate a lot more compared to what it is now. It is artificially higher than it should be, thanks to the AI GPU race. Lots of dedicated AI chips are in development and there should be a marked down turn in AI GPU demand in 2026 and should see it stabilise somewhere next year.
Which could see the market flooded with GPUs as the sell-off starts. Once that starts happening, boy you better have your wallet ready, it will be a fire sale of note.
Miners are still trying to get rid of GPUs and recoup costs and in some cases, many miners have entirely dumped their hardware in the e waste trash bins, which just added to supply issues in the GPU market.
A good guess would be another 2 years of supply issues and for the secondhand market to recover. So new and secondhand prices should at some point return to normal levels again. In other words, you would be lucky to get more than 60% selling your GPU after a year and 40% in two.
CPUs have mostly stayed consistent, with maybe a slight increase in prices on the secondhand market.
GPU's have been selling at their MSRP a lot more often in recent months as well.
So yeah, I wouldn't bet on being able to recoup a lot, in future.