Past performance good indicator for future performance?

[marco]

One must also remember that CML was a fledgling penny stock during the crash. I would not have been interested in it at that time.
Penny stocks are not liquid enough and the spreads are too wide making movements either way look overdone.

I was in managed UT's at that time and sold at -45%. Had I not sold, it would have dropped to -55%. So I could safely say that the 40 odd stocks I held averaged a fall of -55%.

 

[Ou grote]

One must also remember that CML was a fledgling penny stock during the crash. I would not have been interested in it at that time.
Penny stocks are not liquid enough and the spreads are too wide making movements either way look overdone.

I was in managed UT's at that time and sold at -45%. Had I not sold, it would have dropped to -55%. So I could safely say that the 40 odd stocks I held averaged a fall of -55%.

Then rather say "since 2009" when you want to talk about their performance, otherwise people may tell you that you are mistaken.

 

[DJ...]

One must also remember that CML was a fledgling penny stock during the crash.

No, it wasn't. Jesus Christ, how is it that you can be so wrong so often and continue to post as if you're some sort of authority on the subject...?

 

[marco]

He's incorrectly using the term "correction" - once again...

Where did I use the word " correction" DJ? I did say that CML had only one correction and that was recently when it dropped by 7% for no reason other than profit taking.
There is no agreed upon definition for Correction but it is generally agreed to be a drop of 5% to 20%. The 2008 crash was not a correction. If you call this a correction then it corrected overly incorrectly.

 

[Ou grote]

No, it wasn't. Jesus Christ, how is it that you can be so wrong so often and continue to post as if you're some sort of authority on the subject...?

I avoided that one on purpose.
Now you have to explain things like indices are and what J204, J202, J201 etc are, then move on to free floats etc.

 

[Ou grote]

Where did I use the word " correction" DJ? I did say that CML had only one correction and that was recently when it dropped by 7% for no reason other than profit taking.
There is no agreed upon definition for Correction but it is generally agreed to be a drop of 5% to 20%. The 2008 crash was not a correction. If you call this a correction then it corrected overly incorrectly.

When was the crash then?
In that short monthly history from 2007 to 2009 that I posted there are multiple times when there were "Corrections" according to you definition.

Shall I post the entire daily price history so you can see more ?

 

[AlmightyBender]

Wow clearly marco just makes up his own definitions for financial terms. Thinking that stocks are penny stocks because of the size of their share price. Wow just wow. By that logic a large cap could just become a small cap by doing a stock split

 

[marco]

Wow clearly marco just makes up his own definitions for financial terms. Thinking that stocks are penny stocks because of the size of their share price. Wow just wow. By that logic a large cap could just become a small cap by doing a stock split

Once again, there is no definition for a penny stock but in ZA terms it is commonly given to stocks under R10.00.
Now please oblige us with your version.

 

[DJ...]

Once again, there is no definition for a penny stock but in ZA terms it is commonly given to stocks under R10.00.

Nope. Typically they'd trade under the R2 mark in this country, but regardless, penny-stocks will not form a part of the index, they will be thinly traded and therefore pose massive spreads and will not be traded on the main board. None of these characteristics represent CML in the time-frame you're talking about. Once again you are talking about things that you know nothing about. Just stop...

 

[supersunbird]

Marco, I see I cannot find the post where you said you were leaving, a pity...

What if CML fall 45% in the next crash? you ok with that?

And a crash is just a correction by most of the market (due to something being incorrectly valued)

 

[AlmightyBender]

Once again, there is no definition for a penny stock but in ZA terms it is commonly given to stocks under R10.00.
Now please oblige us with your version.

FFS you can't just ignore market cap when calling a stock a penny stock. So when Old Mutual's stock price was hovering at around R13-R14 a share a few years back you want to say that the company is just above penny stock status? And if Coronation did a 5:1 stock split the share price would be <R10. Would it then be a penny stock? Not a chance!

 

[AlmightyBender]

Where did I use the word " correction" DJ? I did say that CML had only one correction and that was recently when it dropped by 7% for no reason other than profit taking.
There is no agreed upon definition for Correction but it is generally agreed to be a drop of 5% to 20%. The 2008 crash was not a correction. If you call this a correction then it corrected overly incorrectly.

Please explain what happened between 30 April and 1 June 2012 please

 

[marco]

When was the crash then?
In that short monthly history from 2007 to 2009 that I posted there are multiple times when there were "Corrections" according to you definition.

Shall I post the entire daily price history so you can see more ?

You don't seem to understand the difference between Market Crash and Correction. Let me explain.

A correction normally occurs in markets or a single stock in overbought conditions. It will "correct" itself by dropping 5-20% to bring it back in line to it's real value. A correction is actually good for the market or stock to give it a more sustainable level. A correction hardly ever lasts long and will never cause a recession.

A Market Crash like in 2008 was caused by banks debt being larger than their equity and they started failing. This was the start of the panic selling. This panic selling snowballed and fed on itself for many months and caused USA to go into recession. During this crash there were some up days that lasted only a few days till more bad news came out and back it went down.
Now you are seeing the Daily prices and thinking there were many corrections.

 

[AlmightyBender]

You don't seem to understand the difference between Market Crash and Correction. Let me explain.

A correction normally occurs in markets or a single stock in overbought conditions. It will "correct" itself by dropping 5-20% to bring it back in line to it's real value. A correction is actually good for the market or stock to give it a more sustainable level. A correction hardly ever lasts long and will never cause a recession.

A Market Crash like in 2008 was caused by banks debt being larger than their equity and they started failing. This was the start of the panic selling. This panic selling snowballed and fed on itself for many months and caused USA to go into recession. During this crash there were some up days that lasted only a few days till more bad news came out and back it went down.
Now you are seeing the Daily prices and thinking there were many corrections.

Please explain what happened between 30 April and 1 June 2012 please? Share price went from R30 to R25 during this time. This was a more than 10% correction. You stated that since 2009 the share had only seen one correction of 7%. So which is it?

 

[Ou grote]

You don't seem to understand the difference between Market Crash and Correction. Let me explain.

A correction normally occurs in markets or a single stock in overbought conditions. It will "correct" itself by dropping 5-20% to bring it back in line to it's real value. A correction is actually good for the market or stock to give it a more sustainable level. A correction hardly ever lasts long and will never cause a recession.

A Market Crash like in 2008 was caused by banks debt being larger than their equity and they started failing. This was the start of the panic selling. This panic selling snowballed and fed on itself for many months and caused USA to go into recession. During this crash there were some up days that lasted only a few days till more bad news came out and back it went down.
Now you are seeing the Daily prices and thinking there were many corrections.

Now look at the price history for CML since inception and tell me again how many "corrections" there were.


I'm not going into your 2008 story - I'm sure someone with patience will help you

 

[jambai]

Marco we are not saying you have not done well with CML.It was hardly a penny stock 5 years ago and you seem to lack the understanding of basic financial term and what affect CML share price.You are going to carry on getting roasted until your facts are true.Anybody can talk the talk but few walk the walk ,so good luck with your trading but please say stuff that are facts and not debatable.

 

[marco]

No, it wasn't. Jesus Christ, how is it that you can be so wrong so often and continue to post as if you're some sort of authority on the subject...?

Penny stocks, also known as cent stocks in some countries, are common shares of small public companies that trade at low prices per share. In the United States, the SEC defines a penny stock as one that trades below $5 per share. In the United Kingdom, stocks priced under £1 are called penny shares.

Copied and pasted from investopedia.

I am by no means trying to be an Authority on the subject. If I am wrong then correct me AND explain why I am wrong instead of just stating comments about how stupid I am. If I am wrong, then I will apologize but please explain why. We here to learn and I would value your input.

Look at Alf's posts. You know that he is wrong but say nothing to him. You are only gunning me.

 

[supersunbird]

Penny stocks, also known as cent stocks in some countries, are common shares of small public companies that trade at low prices per share. In the United States, the SEC defines a penny stock as one that trades below $5 per share. In the United Kingdom, stocks priced under £1 are called penny shares.

Copied and pasted from investopedia.

I am by no means trying to be an Authority on the subject. If I am wrong then correct me AND explain why I am wrong instead of just stating comments about how stupid I am. If I am wrong, then I will apologize but please explain why. We here to learn and I would value your input.

Look at Alf's posts. You know that he is wrong but say nothing to him. You are only gunning me.

Where is he wrong? I have not noticed anything wrong in his posts.

 

[marco]

Please explain what happened between 30 April and 1 June 2012 please

Umm. Can't remember exactly. Just went to work as normal. Nothing to write about here though.

Sorry. Are you talking about CML or the ALSI or general world markets? If the world markets then it could be the Greece Saga or perhaps Ben and QE3. I don't take notes as too much happened last year and I can't remember all. What I do remember is that I sold all my holdings during that period and stayed in cash for some reason. Got back in 18 June.

No. I give up now. Just can't remember. Now you tell us please.

 

[marco]

Nope. Typically they'd trade under the R2 mark in this country, but regardless, penny-stocks will not form a part of the index, they will be thinly traded and therefore pose massive spreads and will not be traded on the main board. None of these characteristics represent CML in the time-frame you're talking about. Once again you are talking about things that you know nothing about. Just stop...

Typically they trade under R10 in South Africa.That R2 mark is your own mark and thumb suck. Actually it could be anywhere in between as there are no set rules for this. Jeff Black was the authority on penny stocks in SA and he termed R10 as the max for penny stocks. Google him.