great article. I agree completely.
I think esat and now Telkom have been put off by Multichoice buying up 'all' the content from the American networks. I don't think that's the case. There is plenty of content available - maybe a bit older is not a bad thing. The majority of the market has not seen so many great shows that have been shown on MNET and DSTV.
For a smaller operator, I'd take a different approach and target the R150 to R200 p/m market. Use some older content for a couple of years to get established and then when Multichoice's agreements expire, go out in full force for the top shows. Also, try to drive up the prices of sports broadcasting for Multichoice.
Multichoice is not invincible. If the licensed operators are not up to the challenge, I'm sure there are a bunch of companies who are willing to give it a try.
The problem with Telkom Media, it created a messiah impression like it was going to rescue us all from the beast, Multichoice. Now it's realising it's not that easy, it main shareholder is cowardly withdrawing into the darkness.
With this pathetic attitude from operators, I'm sure the Virgin Group are eyeing up picking an operator on the cheap in 2 to 3 years time.