poweralert stage 2.....

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Brian_G said:
We've clearly caught the ANC out massively here.

1. Yesterday reliable ESP with their proven reliable source of info, and some others, report a plan to go back to S3 early this morning. Clearly a planned "emergency".
2. Plan includes detailed recovery shortly after, further confirming the farce.

3. Eskom (ANC) realise the leak, implement a much earlier and more solid emergency.

4. Early hours they push it over the hill by announcing S4. Perhaps to distract, perhaps 'cos they think they got away with it.


Prove me wrong..
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Look at all the red on the latest graph. They've been burning diesel massively on the 7th. That's likely continued up until yesterday when the reserves finally started running out. I'm guessing they were trying to minimise LS stages around the SONA to help Cyril save face.

Unfortunately for them the reserves ran out too fast.

I don't think any of this was planned. They simply let the OCGTs go brrrrrrr trying to make everything look fine as more generating units imploded but even that wasn't enough. If there's one thing I can say about Eskom it's that they don't really seem to plan long term, or even medium term. Everything seems to be focused on only the next couple of days.

It's OK. They'll just ask for a 5000% price increase next time to cover this.

There is no point in burning all this diesel to try to stave off a stage of loadshedding for a day or so. We end up increasing by 2 stages for a day or so afterwards because Eskom needs energy to refill pumped storage and on top of that now has no more diesel to burn. They really need to stop using OCGTs constantly to meet demand. It's going to ruin Eskom entirely.
 
porchrat said:
Look at all the red on the latest graph. They've been burning diesel massively on the 7th. That's likely continued up until yesterday when the reserves finally started running out. I'm guessing they were trying to minimise LS stages around the SONA to help Cyril save face.

Unfortunately for them the reserves ran out too fast.

I don't think any of this was planned. They simply let the OCGTs go brrrrrrr trying to make everything look fine as more generating units imploded but even that wasn't enough. If there's one thing I can say about Eskom it's that they don't really seem to plan long term, or even medium term. Everything seems to be focused on only the next couple of days.

It's OK. They'll just ask for a 5000% price increase next time to cover this.

There is no point in burning all this diesel to try to stave off a stage of loadshedding for a day or so. We end up dropping 2 stages for a day or so afterwards because Eskom needs energy to refill pumped storage. They really need to stop using OCGTs constantly to meet demand. It's going to ruin Eskom entirely.
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Yeah, that makes sense. But clearly a planned cover up.

At the same time, all us regulars here have constantly seen they lie about the figures so none of it is clear cut of course.
 
Brian_G said:
Yeah, that makes sense. But clearly a planned cover up.

At the same time, all us regulars here have constantly seen they lie about the figures so none of it is clear cut of course.
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I don't think they're lying about the OCGT usage. It coincides way too neatly with increased stages every single time.

The pattern is clear at this point: (1) Power stations trip --> (2) increase maybe 1 stage of LS (instead of the 2 stages we really need to increase by), begin to burn diesel and dump all the pumped storage --> (3) 2 days later no more water for pumped storage to run and no more diesel --> (4) increase LS stages to at least 1 stage beyond what it would have been at initially because now we need to use some extra power to replenish pumped storage AND we can no longer burn diesel --> (5) some power station comes back online a few days later and we drop back to original stage 2/3 again.

It's clear as day at this point. It's expensive and it's stupid. Overall the increased stages we see at the end of that cycle are cancelling out any benefit you get from burning diesel to keep 1 stage away. Stop using diesel as base load. It's irresponsible and unsustainable. Not unless the government is prepared to directly transfer funds to Eskom at the end of each month to cover that diesel spend.
 
porchrat said:
It's clear as day at this point. It's expensive and it's stupid. Overall the increased stages we see at the end of that cycle are cancelling out any benefit you get from burning diesel to keep 1 stage away.
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I still think all the figures are fudged, mostly to disguise sabotage.
Then on occasion they see some advantage to advertising the fact, to shift blame no doubt, and then it's all about sabotage again... until it isn't again.

porchrat said:
Stop using diesel as base load. It's irresponsible and unsustainable. Not unless the government is prepared to directly transfer funds to Eskom at the end of each month to cover that diesel spend.
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Eskom is completely controlled by the ANC so when they make a fuss about this it's certainly just rhetoric - oh woe is us, look how we have to sacrifice our budget to save the people...
Meanwhile of course the bill, as you say, is always ours..
 
The other factor is extra maintenance. With the vote so close how else are they going to claim great improvement?

So for once I think what they're doing is positive. But only 'cos they have no choice.
Only question left IMO is where they draw the timeline - when do they say it's better to stop LS for best vote results? May / June perhaps?
 
Some positive news?

www.linkedin.com

This is the sound of a 256MW solar power plant connecting to the national grid. Great excitement from our team and Eskom - finally turning all that hard work and paper into real, clean electrons… | Chris Haw | 138 comments

This is the sound of a 256MW solar power plant connecting to the national grid. Great excitement from our team and Eskom - finally turning all that hard work and paper into real, clean electrons. Another great milestone for SOLA Group. | 138 comments on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
Some positive news?

www.linkedin.com

This is the sound of a 256MW solar power plant connecting to the national grid. Great excitement from our team and Eskom - finally turning all that hard work and paper into real, clean electrons… | Chris Haw | 138 comments

This is the sound of a 256MW solar power plant connecting to the national grid. Great excitement from our team and Eskom - finally turning all that hard work and paper into real, clean electrons. Another great milestone for SOLA Group. | 138 comments on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
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For what a quarter of a stage? Sometimes?
 
Brian_G said:
I vote for converting the whole of the Karoo :X3:
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I was thinking the WC, I mean what is it good for besides some entitled people :-P plus we can have turbines on that flat thing they love so much.
 
Lupus said:
I was thinking the WC, I mean what is it good for besides some entitled people :p plus we can have turbines on that flat thing they love so much.
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All that delicious lamb comes from the Karoo. It's far too important. Rather start by bulldozing every politician's house and build over the tattered remains.

Start with Luthuli House. I've heard it's basically condemned on the inside anyway.
 
Brian_G said:
I still think all the figures are fudged, mostly to disguise sabotage.
Then on occasion they see some advantage to advertising the fact, to shift blame no doubt, and then it's all about sabotage again... until it isn't again.
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They don't have the extra capacity at this point to hide anything except the absolute smallest of incidents. There's no margin left now. Any significant change in generator output and they very obviously start burning diesel.

So far the excessive diesel burn has preceded every single one of these increases in LS stage.

I tend to apply Occam's razor to this sort of thing. They certainly could provide more information, but the information we do see still appears to adequately explain the situation. That explanation is also absolutely terrifying, showing extreme incompetence and negligence. If Eskom wanted to hide things, surely hiding their incompetence and negligence would be something they would do... instead of just leaving it out there for the world to see.

Brian_G said:
Eskom is completely controlled by the ANC so when they make a fuss about this it's certainly just rhetoric - oh woe is us, look how we have to sacrifice our budget to save the people...
Meanwhile of course the bill, as you say, is always ours..
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Indeed it is controlled by the ANC. That's largely why it's in its present condition.

I know ultimately when Eskom screws up the money comes from the taxpayers. I just wish it were done more efficiently. Instead it's just more loans that eventually years later get taken over by the government but in the meantime rack up interest, and result in a lack of maintenance at Eskom because money is diverted to that interest. It's idiotic. If you're going to tell Eskom to burn more diesel then just pay for it directly.
 
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