poweralert stage 2.....

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I don't think they're lying about the OCGT usage. It coincides way too neatly with increased stages every single time.

The pattern is clear at this point: (1) Power stations trip --> (2) increase maybe 1 stage of LS (instead of the 2 stages we really need to increase by), begin to burn diesel and dump all the pumped storage --> (3) 2 days later no more water for pumped storage to run and no more diesel --> (4) increase LS stages to at least 1 stage beyond what it would have been at initially because now we need to use some extra power to replenish pumped storage AND we can no longer burn diesel --> (5) some power station comes back online a few days later and we drop back to original stage 2/3 again.

It's clear as day at this point. It's expensive and it's stupid. Overall the increased stages we see at the end of that cycle are cancelling out any benefit you get from burning diesel to keep 1 stage away. Stop using diesel as base load. It's irresponsible and unsustainable. Not unless the government is prepared to directly transfer funds to Eskom at the end of each month to cover that diesel spend.

You win the internet (this week). Stage 6 at 2am on a Saturday morning matches your scenario analysis perfectly...
 
According to power alert, eskom is only making 19000mw. We will need to wait for 12pm update to see what is happening.
That's the update at midnight, we will see if there is an update at 12... but also you can't really rely on these numbers
 
It's terrifying to see stage 6 after 3GW odd of solar was added in just the last year. Imagine how boned the country would be without that solar. Stage 9 or 10 potentially.

Eskom really screwing up now, all while the politicians are assuring us it's all coming right.

@TheChamp you got any comments? It's all still looking rosy? I've noticed you've been quiet on Eskom lately and all the so-called improvements you were hammering on about a while back. What happened buddy?
 
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