poweralert stage 2.....

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Lupus said:
Actually not, we managed last year with the strikes and we were basically in the same boat, our biggest issue is the constant sabotage happening. It's not even about the age of the power plants anymore it's literally corruption. I mean it's gotten to the point where even City Power is saying to please keep your inverter off the grid while power is coming back up. It's slowly sinking in that load shedding just shifts demand.
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Right, but winter starts officially in just over two weeks. Right now we need more generation capacity. Not much we can do before winter starts.
 
Priapus said:
Right, but winter starts officially in just over two weeks. Right now we need more generation capacity. Not much we can do before winter starts.
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You do know that winter doesn't keep a schedule right? It doesn't sit there and go ok hold guys it's only May, hold, hold... Same as all the seasons, it can come early or leave early. We have the capacity, they just need to actually fix it and stop sabotaging it.
 
Lupus said:
You do know that winter doesn't keep a schedule right? It doesn't sit there and go ok hold guys it's only May, hold, hold... Same as all the seasons, it can come early or leave early. We have the capacity, they just need to actually fix it and stop sabotaging it.
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So you're saying if the sabotaging stops; we'll have more generation capacity?
 
wingnut771 said:
but the peak will be much higher.
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I'm not sure it will be "much" higher. It's already increased by over 5GW since the lows of summer and at least in Cape Town, it's been rather cold for a few weeks now and it won't get much colder than the 15-16 degrees we've been experiencing during the day.
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
I'm not sure it will be "much" higher. It's already increased by over 5GW since the lows of summer and at least in Cape Town, it's been rather cold for a few weeks now and it won't get much colder than the 15-16 degrees we've been experiencing during the day.
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And the only reason it's jumped this high is load shift, it doesn't track from previous years going back to 2011 when it was the last time we saw peak hitting 37GW
 
wingnut771 said:
Yes, they should concentrate there instead of media broadcasts about stage 9 and what-not.
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Yup I mean we've made it through other years without Kusile and Medupi. Hell we made it through 2020 with minimal winter load shedding and our peak was 35GW it was also a cold winter
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
I'm not sure it will be "much" higher. It's already increased by over 5GW since the lows of summer and at least in Cape Town, it's been rather cold for a few weeks now and it won't get much colder than the 15-16 degrees we've been experiencing during the day.
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I think it will increase 2GW from 33GW (stage 6) to 35GW (stage 8) when the minimums get to -1c and without having a stage 9 schedule the wheels will fall off.
 
Lupus said:
Yup I mean we've made it through other years without Kusile and Medupi. Hell we made it through 2020 with minimal winter load shedding and our peak was 35GW it was also a cold winter
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What was eskom's available generation capacity back when there was no load shedding in winter?
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit said:
I'm not sure it will be "much" higher. It's already increased by over 5GW since the lows of summer and at least in Cape Town, it's been rather cold for a few weeks now and it won't get much colder than the 15-16 degrees we've been experiencing during the day.
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There are two factors:
- Temperatures can fall below average for several days, those are the events to note.
- Once we go beyond stage 6, load shifting will squeeze demand, so that an extra 2GW shortfall will increase the peak by 3GW.

I'm still standing behind a prediction of stage 9 for a limited period at least once this winter.

Edit: So Eskom says stage 8 is their worst case. I guess that depends on the weather...
 
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Gordon_R said:
There are two factors:
- Temperatures can fall below average for several days, those are the events to note.
- Once we go beyond stage 6, load shifting will squeeze demand, so that an extra 2GW shortfall will increase the peak by 3GW.

I'm still standing behind a prediction of stage 9 for a limited period at least once this winter.
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I predict stage 9 (whatever that is) everytime we have a cold front that hits zimbabwe.
 
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