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Rain and storm for Cpt

Gordon_R

Expert Member
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Jul 5, 2009
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10.5mm measured in our gauge in Kenilworth this morning.

The rain on Dwarsberg was very welcome, but due to low soil moisture levels this one downpour is unlikely to produce significant runoff.

Hectic wind yesterday, there was a medium size tree brought down in our area.
 

Gordon_R

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Jul 5, 2009
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Another powerful frontal system is likely to reach the SW-Cape overnight on Sun 4th into Mon 5th. The wind will be strong north-westerly at times, with moderate amounts of rain, and an abrupt transition to unseasonably cold conditions (like the start of last week).

Snow is predicted for many of the high mountain ranges in the Western on Mon 5th, spreading to parts of the Eastern Cape and Drakensberg on Tues 6th.

This chart shows expected daytime temperatures on Mon 5th:
tmax2m_066[20181106_0000_crop].jpg
 

genetic

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Apr 26, 2008
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25,496
@Gordon_R, what's the rain expectation for early next week according to your predictions?

According to Windguru, we have the possibility of very light rain, not exceeding 2mm per hour during the height of the front.
 

Gordon_R

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Jul 5, 2009
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According to Windguru, we have the possibility of very light rain, not exceeding 2mm per hour during the height of the front.
Its very difficult to give any specific rainfall numbers, particularly for compact fast moving fronts that brush the SW-Cape outside of the winter season. Anywhere from 5-15mm over the mountains.
 

Geoff.D

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Aug 4, 2005
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7,397
The first signs of a possible intense low pressure area over the southern Indian ocean later in the week are there. If this intensifies into tropical depression, we could see moisture being pushed over Africa south of the equator. So, later in the week, more moisture could move in over Namibia, and Botswana and hence push south.
The first real indication that summer rainfall patterns have arrived.
Meanwhile, the AAO index is only mildly negative for the next few days, so front may just end up bringing some rain to the southern cape in the next two days or so.
 

MightyQuin

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Oct 6, 2010
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Hard rain falling now in Brackenfell. Awesome.

Gonna get soaked now when I go turn off my irrigation system. Well worth it though.
 

Geoff.D

Executive Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
7,397
The first signs of a possible intense low pressure area over the southern Indian ocean later in the week are there. If this intensifies into tropical depression, we could see moisture being pushed over Africa south of the equator. So, later in the week, more moisture could move in over Namibia, and Botswana and hence push south.
The first real indication that summer rainfall patterns have arrived.
Meanwhile, the AAO index is only mildly negative for the next few days, so front may just end up bringing some rain to the southern cape in the next two days or so.
The maybe tropical depression has intensified into a severe tropical storm in a matter of hours, heading straight for Madagascar.
Correction this is the second this year not the first.
20.83 mm measured at Dwarsberg at midnight last night. So good rains in the mountains.
 
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