Rain and storm for Cpt

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10.5mm measured in our gauge in Kenilworth this morning.

The rain on Dwarsberg was very welcome, but due to low soil moisture levels this one downpour is unlikely to produce significant runoff.

Hectic wind yesterday, there was a medium size tree brought down in our area.
 
Another powerful frontal system is likely to reach the SW-Cape overnight on Sun 4th into Mon 5th. The wind will be strong north-westerly at times, with moderate amounts of rain, and an abrupt transition to unseasonably cold conditions (like the start of last week).

Snow is predicted for many of the high mountain ranges in the Western on Mon 5th, spreading to parts of the Eastern Cape and Drakensberg on Tues 6th.

This chart shows expected daytime temperatures on Mon 5th:
tmax2m_066[20181106_0000_crop].jpg
 
@Gordon_R, what's the rain expectation for early next week according to your predictions?

According to Windguru, we have the possibility of very light rain, not exceeding 2mm per hour during the height of the front.
 
genetic said:
According to Windguru, we have the possibility of very light rain, not exceeding 2mm per hour during the height of the front.
Click to expand...

Its very difficult to give any specific rainfall numbers, particularly for compact fast moving fronts that brush the SW-Cape outside of the winter season. Anywhere from 5-15mm over the mountains.
 
The first signs of a possible intense low pressure area over the southern Indian ocean later in the week are there. If this intensifies into tropical depression, we could see moisture being pushed over Africa south of the equator. So, later in the week, more moisture could move in over Namibia, and Botswana and hence push south.
The first real indication that summer rainfall patterns have arrived.
Meanwhile, the AAO index is only mildly negative for the next few days, so front may just end up bringing some rain to the southern cape in the next two days or so.
 
Hard rain falling now in Brackenfell. Awesome.

Gonna get soaked now when I go turn off my irrigation system. Well worth it though.
 
Geoff.D said:
The first signs of a possible intense low pressure area over the southern Indian ocean later in the week are there. If this intensifies into tropical depression, we could see moisture being pushed over Africa south of the equator. So, later in the week, more moisture could move in over Namibia, and Botswana and hence push south.
The first real indication that summer rainfall patterns have arrived.
Meanwhile, the AAO index is only mildly negative for the next few days, so front may just end up bringing some rain to the southern cape in the next two days or so.
Click to expand...
The maybe tropical depression has intensified into a severe tropical storm in a matter of hours, heading straight for Madagascar.
Correction this is the second this year not the first.
20.83 mm measured at Dwarsberg at midnight last night. So good rains in the mountains.
 
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just under 21mm @ Dwarsberg, lovely!

It rained quite nicely here in Gardens last night, not massive amounts, but enough to get one 'proper' wet.
 
Modest rainfall overnight, 6mm in our gauge in Kenilworth this morning (Mon 3rd).

Somewhat more rain in the SAEON Dwarsberg mountain catchment (30mm), but very little runoff expected due to low soil moisture (already 2 months into dry season).

Edit: A few good numbers in the SAWS report: http://www.weathersa.co.za/media/data/climate/nr_daily_rai.pdf
Molteno Reservoir (CBD) 14mm, Kirstenbosch 13mm, Jonkershoek 13mm, Hermanus 9mm, etc.

Substantially more rain is likely during the period from Thurs 6th to Sat 8th, though it is hard to predict the exact amounts (10-30mm possible in places).
 
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