Rain and storm for Cpt

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Gordon_R said:
Another significant cold-front is predicted for Mon 29th.

BTW, I don't place much credence in long-range trends.
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Long-range trends do take a bit of interpreting but I am starting to understand how to use them for general predictions. But for short term predictions, not very useful. The time lags are very variable.
There is about a 3-day lag between what the AAO forecast indicate and the actual index, and about 7 days lag between the AAO measurements and reality.
 
The first front has passed over Cape Town during the night, producing some rather heavy showers. The SAEON Dwarsberg mountain catchment station often shows impressive rainfall totals, but this morning's numbers are extraordinary:
44mm up to midnight
20mm per hour between 2am and 6am
Total close to 100mm from midnight to 6am
Cumulative total in excess of 140mm (so far)

Edit: I was reluctant to head out and check our rain gauge in Kenilworth, but found 34mm here at 6am (since 9pm yesterday).

The chart of inflow into the Berg River Dam should be impressive to watch, By 6am the rate has reached the annual flood stage (130m^3/sec, or 3 times last week's peak). See: http://www.dwa.gov.za/hydrology/Unverified/DetailStageFlow.aspx?Station=G1H076FW&Type=Flow&Rain=N
The level of the Berg River Dam has jumped about 2% in 6 hours (from 93% to 95%). See: http://www.dwa.gov.za/Hydrology/Unverified/DetailStageFlow.aspx?Station=G1R004FW&Type=Flow&Rain=N

In theory the Berg River Dam could overflow quite soon.

The satellite image shows a significant gap between the fronts, so there may be an hour or two of sunshine during the morning:

MET9_airmass-Antarctic_20190723_0300[crop_25X2].jpg
 
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It's been pouring right through the night here in Kraaifontein. I woke up several times due to the rain and wind.
 
Coming down like crazy now in Brackenfell, driving to work was pure hell, couldn't even see the road.... Hectic!

Very happy for the dams though, can't wait to see what the levels are next week Monday.
 
Been pissing down here in Constantia with howling wind since last night( rain has abated somewhat though) ... peering out of my lounge window at 5.30am it looked like a scene out of LoTR , pitch darkness the trees swaying violently and lashing rain :giggle:

Feels like the good old days when I was still wee nipper...
 
yebocan said:
this is just the first one, second one looks way bigger...will hit around 9pm tonight.
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The 2nd front is likely to be felt throughout the day (after a short break). It will be much more showery than persistent rain. Some models indicate the possibility of thunder and lightning this evening. The real cold will arrive later today as the wind swings to SW, with snow overnight.
 
Gordon_R said:
The 2nd front is likely to be felt throughout the day (after a short break). It will be much more showery than persistent rain. Some models indicate the possibility of thunder and lightning this evening. The real cold will arrive later today as the wind swings to SW, with snow overnight.
Click to expand...

all, i have to say...we can do with all the water and BBBBBBRRRRRR!
 
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