Rain and storm for Cpt

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Prospects for more reasonable rain are rather bleak at the moment. Small minor fronts mostly moving past the country is all that is on the horizon
 
The sun is rising earlier each morning. Soon, winter will be gone.
 
Tikkop said:
The sun is rising earlier each morning. Soon, winter will be gone.
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Thermal inertia causes mid-winter to be about 4-6 weeks after the solstice (late-August). In Cape Town the prevailing winds also change direction, bringing cool onshore winds in Spring.
 
Gordon_R said:
Thermal inertia causes mid-winter to be about 4-6 weeks after the solstice (late-August). In Cape Town the prevailing winds also change direction, bringing cool onshore winds in Spring.
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Huh? The shortest day in SA is on or about the 21st June . Why do you say late August?
4 - 6 weeks after the 21st June is round about now ...

Is there such a thing as an off shore wind in the Cape ?;) I mean the North Wester is on shore and mostly cold and the South Easter is on shore and mostly cold heh heh
 
Gordon_R said:
Thermal inertia causes mid-winter to be about 4-6 weeks after the solstice (late-August). In Cape Town the prevailing winds also change direction, bringing cool onshore winds in Spring.
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Gordon you must allow them some latitude. They don't know any better!
 
Geoff.D said:
Huh? The shortest day in SA is on or about the 21st June . Why do you say late August?
4 - 6 weeks after the 21st June is round about now ...

Is there such a thing as an off shore wind in the Cape ?;) I mean the North Wester is on shore and mostly cold and the South Easter is on shore and mostly cold heh heh
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I mis-typed: Should have said early-August, but late-August can bring some impressive cold-fronts and snow.

My point was that during mid-winter the land and sea are equally cold, so winds have a neutral effect. In early-Spring the land tries to warm up, but the South Easter wind keeps conditions cool (sometimes right through November).

SANBI Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens use a 6-season calendar (not just four of 3 months each), reflecting the de-coupling of sunshine, temperature, rainfall and winds. See: http://www.sanbi.org/gardens/kirstenbosch/kirstenbosch-through-seasons

In their table, the daytime temperature during November (21.5C) is fractionally less than the month of April (21.9C), which proves my point entirely! The same thermal lag applies to the period June through August (the numbers are not as dramatic).

Edit: If you go slightly further inland to places such as Paarl or Malmesbury, the results are very different (less wind, and less ocean influence). The phrase The Cape can cover a very large area (depending on your definition).

Edit: These are just the averages. When you start looking at daily minimum and maximum temperatures (and daily ranges and record extremes), the trends can get complex.

cenredash said:
Gordon you must allow them some latitude. They don't know any better!
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Trying to explain weather and climate in a single sentence or paragraph is a losing battle. Everything you say in the English language can me misinterpreted or misconstrued in some way...
 
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Gordon_R said:
SANBI Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens use a 6-season calendar (not just four of 3 months each), reflecting the de-coupling of sunshine, temperature, rainfall and winds. See: http://www.sanbi.org/gardens/kirstenbosch/kirstenbosch-through-seasons
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very interesting table. The number of rainy days for june/july/ august shows the heavier rainful in july comes during fewer days. My feeling has always been (except for the last few years) that july is wetter, i.e. has more rain, when in fact it only has more rainy days, which also makes sense.
 
we are definitely going to run out of water before the next winter, I see my local Pick and Pay is well stocked up on 5l waters
 
cenredash said:
very interesting table. The number of rainy days for june/july/ august shows the heavier rainful in july comes during fewer days. My feeling has always been (except for the last few years) that july is wetter, i.e. has more rain, when in fact it only has more rainy days, which also makes sense.
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Unfortunately or otherwise, depending on your point of view, what happens at Kirstenbosch cannot be used as a proxy for everywhere in Cape Town .....

But yes it is easy to draw the wrong conclusions about what data means as you have so aptly just demonstrated. The subtle difference between the amount of rain and the number of rainy days. Neither data set is incorrect but it is easy to get the wrong answer or just as easy to deliberately misrepresent what the data implies.
 
Gordon_R said:
I mis-typed: Should have said early-August, but late-August can bring some impressive cold-fronts and snow.

snip
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If you ask my mom who is 95 years old, and lived for years in CT, she will tell you straight off that the coldest times of the year with the most snow happens in late-August early September.

BTW I hear that there was some snow on Table Mountain over the weekend?
 
Geoff.D said:
Unfortunately or otherwise, depending on your point of view, what happens at Kirstenbosch cannot be used as a proxy for everywhere in Cape Town .....

But yes it is easy to draw the wrong conclusions about what data means as you have so aptly just demonstrated. The subtle difference between the amount of rain and the number of rainy days. Neither data set is incorrect but it is easy to get the wrong answer or just as easy to deliberately misrepresent what the data implies.
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The rainfall distibution around Cape Town is very complex, and varies drastically in both timing and location, and with elevation. There are relatively few reliable and long-term data records available.

Summer rainfall in CT tends to be light and drizzly, winter rainfall is heavy and intense, so the number of rain days per month is of very limited value. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics...

Temperature is a bit more predictable, but varies with cloud cover (close to the mountain), wind, and many other factors.

Yes, I'm a weather freak, and could easily write a whole book about just this one narrow topic.

Geoff.D said:
BTW I hear that there was some snow on Table Mountain over the weekend?
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There was a brief flurry of snowflakes that someone managed to catch on video (Sun 16th). It was barely enough to dust the surface, and fell far short of the 10cm predicted by some models.
 
Gordon_R said:
The rainfall distibution around Cape Town is very complex, and varies drastically in both timing and location, and with elevation. There are relatively few reliable and long-term data records available.

Summer rainfall in CT tends to be light and drizzly, winter rainfall is heavy and intense, so the number of rain days per month is of very limited value. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics...

Temperature is a bit more predictable, but varies with cloud cover (close to the mountain), wind, and many other factors.

Yes, I'm a weather freak, and could easily write a whole book about just this one narrow topic.



There was a brief flurry of snowflakes that someone managed to catch on video (Sun 16th). It was barely enough to dust the surface, and fell far short of the 10cm predicted by some models.
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I went to school and lived in Milnerton, then Bloubergstrand and finally in Parow. Used to ride the trains to UCT. Know all about how variable the weather was.
 
It was all fine when I was riding out of Welgevonden, but as I came down the hill towards AF Louw I sorta knew my fate. Sometimes the weather at home is way different to that in town or in Jamestown.
 
Rouxenator said:
It was all fine when I was riding out of Welgevonden, but as I came down the hill towards AF Louw I sorta knew my fate. Sometimes the weather at home is way different to that in town or in Jamestown.
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That's still close to Welgevonden, could you not have just turned back to get your car rather? It looks as if it will be raining the whole day meaning you will be soaking wet again tonight?
 
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